Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ Financial Truth On Real Estate Economics. Lead Analyst for @HousingWire
11 Jun
Just another point about why Americans are getting off Forbearance and staying in their homes. Do you really want to be a home buyer in this market when you purchased your home between 2010-2019. You have an even more vested interest in staying in your home.
These are homeowners, not investors; they live in this home, their kids go to school nearby, they have a vested interest in keeping their lives as normal as possible post Covid19. Some never need to take forbearance, but the ones that did, that got their job back, they're staying
That's why talking about the 2021 housing crash as jobs were coming back didn't seem like a logical bet without demographics and low rates. housingwire.com/articles/the-f…
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ Best economic recovery in the world since April of 2020 congrats, America
πŸ₯±
Read 11 tweets
10 Jun
Twitter finance is destined and doomed to fight housing battles that can't be won but talked about. Housing is the cost of shelter to your own capacity to own the debt, and housing has outperformed during the crisis due to demographics and mortgage rates.
People who make money, buy homes, they like bigger homes, for better or worse, rates are low, no one is ever going to overbuild homes unless you get some major deficit financing involved.
2 Groups of people in the world that I know will go to their graves saying something every year and it won't happen
1. Dollar collapse people, (These boomers don't have much time left)
2. We have to build more homes crowd, not realizing that builders don't care about them πŸ˜‰πŸ˜Ž
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
Just remember, all your anti central bank friends who are screaming inflation are all long the markets like they always have been. They're the biggest fake news bears of our generation. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸΎπŸ“ˆπŸ”₯
If you don't believe ask them for their YTD, 1 year, and 2 year returns πŸ˜‰
This is a reason why I keep on showing my returns always because supposedly, we have great traders who were screaming about a dollar collapse. Well, time to show your returns, which they will all show they're net long always. Seriously, I thought we had some ballplayers here
Come on man own it πŸ˜‰β˜ΊοΈ
Read 5 tweets
10 Jun
#CPI
Shelter inflation still has a lot of legs to walk higher
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
#BlackRock Out of 40,000,000 plus homes purchased in the last decade, you all make a big deal about this! πŸ˜‰
Next, you will be telling people that the homeless numbers were skyrocketing in the last decade too.
Wait, that wasn't another lie as well.
What do I always say? Reading is a good thing, be the MF'''''' detective, not the troll. Don't let these puff the magic dragon articles trick you. πŸ˜‰πŸ˜ŽπŸ₯‚
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
We all remember the .com drama πŸ˜‰ Image
Two decades later πŸ˜πŸ˜‰πŸ“ˆ Image
Rooms got a lot better over time 😎
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
LEI lags, jobless claims, and stress index is better regarding the speed of recent Events. However, LEI is solid. Image
Remember to know the components; once you got this, you will be ok. Don't just look at the chart without knowing. Image
The stress index is awesome. It would have saved the bears a lot of pain of being behind the curve. Hence why this was a big variable in AB economic recovery model, I wrote back on April 7th. Notice that was when LEI bottomed. Image
Read 6 tweets
3 May
You all thought I was playing around with my years 2020-2024 thesis. You can't $&$) with mother demographics and rates being this low.
Read 6 tweets
2 May
πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ“ˆ
Don't ever forget the inflation playbook πŸ₯‚πŸ˜Ž
You Don't have to be a hyperinflation gold bug podcast stock trader who sounds bearing 24/7 to make $$$ in a reflation trade thesis. You just need to know this has limits and don't miss this expansion like you did last time πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯πŸ˜‰πŸ₯‚πŸŽ‰πŸš€
Read 5 tweets
2 May
Does anyone remember the lack of labor thesis for the lack of housing construction in the previous expansion 😏
We used to build a lot more housing starts with a lot fewer workers. It was almost as good as the mortgage rate lockdown thesis and that we had no homes to buy thesis from 2013-2019 😎πŸ₯‚
What's the difference now?!?!? Demand is much better, which means the monthly supply gets below 4.3 months. Post-1996 that is where you want to be for housing starts
Read 6 tweets
1 May
2013 was an interesting year, and I have referred to that period in some talking points with 2020/2021 data.
1. The price growth in 2013 was not warranted at all; we simply didn't have the right demographics for housing sales to grow that much, but the market itself cooled pricing down as rates went over 4%, the rate of growth pricing fell.
2. That 1.60% -3% move in the 10-year yield created a noticeable softening in demand, and in 2014, purchase application data trended negative on average 20% year over year. It created a solid bottom for us to work from.
Read 15 tweets
29 Apr
Years 2020-2024 was just going to be different than years 2008 -2019
No credit speculation, no exotic loan debt structure, no booming mortgage demand, it's not a bubble folks, it's just Americans wanting somewhere to live housingwire.com/articles/this-…
Which means price growth should slow down loganmohtashami.com/2021/04/14/hom…
Read 4 tweets
29 Apr
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ 😎
If you believed in the 2020 recovery on April 7, 2020. Then this was the best buying opportunity we will ever get in history. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
For now!
Rates 🀜🏽over βœ‚οΈLumber
Your first clue when it matters is that the 3MA monthly supply is consistently over 4.3 months. Not the case because of rates over lumber for now.
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
On another note, we don't have home buyer that can go from $5 to $120 πŸ˜‰ , More like $5 to $6-$7 % wise
Read 4 tweets
28 Apr
Pricing out a generation of home buyers thesis has been used since 1996 a lot, and home sales rarely go below 4,000,000.
However, even just over 4%, higher rates will cool down the markets just like they did in the past. The same thing happened in 2013/2014 & 2018/2019. Healthy!
The days of saying the Fed needs to aggressively hike rates to create a buying oppurnutiy for stocks from investors who are mostly long is coming to an end. President Trump showed us all the true colors of a lot of conservatives πŸ˜‰πŸ˜Ž Feel the Market, Baby!
Conservatives saying, look, there is no inflation was hilarious. Why are you hiking? Because Trump was President was classic Fintwit. Just be mindful of this.
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
#RealEstateNews #IgnoreAllYearOverYearData
Purchase Application Data up 34% year over year 😏
The Last 4 weeks
+34%
+57%
+57%
+51%
In reality, not much growth is happening, and don't forget this data will mostly be negative year over year in the 2nd half of 2021. Image
The makeup demand in the 2nd half of 2020 will create negative year-over-year data. Existing home sales finally moderating from that parabolic move last year. Still looking for some prints under 5,840,000, but in general, we should be up from last year's 5,640,000 level. Image
Again, not a very healthy housing market, as I expressed on Bloomberg recently. bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…
Read 4 tweets
26 Apr
The comments on this post πŸ€£πŸ˜‚πŸ˜…
1/2 Each dip in the median sales price of new homes has been interpreted as the bubble popping for many years. For a while, when a clear trend of a median sales price declined, they were all in with the crash. However, (Remember Reading Is A Good Thing) they didn't know about
2/2 The impact of falling median sq ft of homes being solid impacting the price data. Like always, once a crash cult, always a crash cult, they never want to grow up; they want to be a crash cult kid forever. πŸ˜‰
Read 4 tweets