Total inventory data here: The last time we had inventory growth was 2014. That was the last year purchase application data was negative. Different story now, we are working from all time lows in inventory starting from this year, purchase apps data will be negative this year.
Jun 19 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Here is a historical look at rent. Now the premise is people always need shelter so higher rates keep more renters in place and the supply hasn’t really grown to reverse the growth trend.
People on Twitter seemed confused about why home prices have escalated out of control since 2020. I will try my best to explain this but know that the growth rate of prices has more to do with inventory collapsing than demand.
First, we have had a group of people 😉since 2012 who didn't believe in housing inflation but housing deflation and were caught off guard in 2020. This article is designed to show you the history of housing inventory, particularly since 2012 🧐housingwire.com/articles/are-h…
I don't believe this for real estate because I firmly believe that the builders only build based on their demand curve, and the previous expansion was the weakest housing recovery ever. Missed sales estimates in 2013,2014, 2015 & 2018 had a supply shock that paused construction
Going back 40 years! I kid you not; yes, we got data that old. The only time we had panic selling of scale was 2006-2011, which was forced credit selling; this is part of the inventory issue. Short time only, this is open to the public housingwire.com/articles/are-h…
The big difference between renters and homeowners, owners' cash flow is much better, and they have the most enormous nominal consumer debt. 😇
Jun 8 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Purchase application data
down 7% week to week
down 21% year over year
4-week moving average down 16.5% year over year
We are getting closer to the range I thought we should be at on the 4-week MA 18%-22% declines.
The comps will get harder starting in October.
You know my thing, housing got savagely unhealthy, and the only way to create inventory is by higher rates.
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
It's crazy that so many people missed the housing data before Covid19 hit us. Purchase apps up to March 18th of 2020. These aren't even hard data lines to read either.
February data we got toward the end of March when Covid19 hit us, but very evident that housing was breaking on in demand before Covid19 came. Again we aren't talking about difficult data to read. The median sales price was up over 8% in this report too.
Jun 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Forbearance went from near 5,000,000 to under 500K today. The Forbearance Crash Bros were all really Anti-Central Bank Housing Bubble Boys 2.0 people; I just gave them a new name for 2020/2021
Recessionary data isn't hard to spot once it's there. The fact that people actually believed we were in a recession in 2022 is really social media America post-2008, as people always thought a recession was here. 😇