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Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
Logan Mohtashami
@LoganMohtashami
🇺🇸💪🏽📈🔥😤🫡 Lead Analyst @HousingWire Financial Truth On Housing Economics. All American Bears have failed since 1790. Press inquiries: Press@HWMedia.com
4 subscribers
Nov 14 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
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Feb 18 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This is one thing I'm afraid I actually have to disagree with everyone on.
I don't believe the builders underbuilt in the previous decade because it was the weakest new home sales demand recovery ever.
They missed sales estimates in 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2018. So they build slow
Image In general, housing mortgage demand was slow, but back then, the builders also had a lot of competition with an active inventory much higher than today Image
Jan 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Purchase Application Update
+8 week to week
- 18% year over year
Above 2014 lows now (But) remember this is a trend survey; it doesn't mean the next existing home sales print will be above 4.6 million
Let's Review Where We Are At!Image Since mortgage rates started to fall after making some Holiday adjustments, meaning I don't count the last few weeks of the year or the First week of January, we have had an 8-week positive trend; we get 12-14 weeks we have something material, as did late 2022 early 2023
Oct 22, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The key with 8% rates now is to track the big 3 data lines!

Let's review where we are today! Because I am batting a whopping zero this year with higher rates and inventory levels, call, and it didn't happen again last week. 😇 New listings data unfazed by 8% mortgage rates
The one data line has been very calm all year; new listing data is still trending at the lowest levels ever recorded in history, with no big move down or up,
housingwire.com/articles/new-l…
Oct 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In honor of the Fed's Housing is in Recovery premise. 🤥
Purchase application data update!
-6% week to week
-22% year over year
Let's review where we are today. Image First, we have separated the existing home sales market from the new home sales market. The new home sales market is still growing as they can live in a much lower mortgage rate market. Image
Aug 16, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Purchase application data update
In Honor of :
FED'S KASHKARI: HOUSING MARKET RESPONSE TO RATE HIKES HAS BEEN SURPRISING, WOULD HAVE THOUGHT BRAKES WOULD BE SLAMMED. 🤨🤥
Note: 2022 was the single biggest one-year crash in sales in history.
The brakes didn't work, it crashed Week-to-week data flat
Year-over-year data -26%
YTD 14 positive prints vs. 16 negative prints and one flat
Since November 9th
21 positive prints vs. 16 negative prints & 1 flat
Existing home sales found their historical floor of around 4,000,000 after a collapse in sales
Jun 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
When rates fall, it has never created more active listings one time post-2010. Not once 🫡😉
It creates more demand, but it has never created more inventory
If I had one year of data to show this to be the case I would say there is shot Image Trust the data ☺️🙌🏽
Jun 15, 2023 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
We are going to do another. It's not a 2007/2008 thread.

1. 2007 had 4 million active listings 🫡 Image 2. We had massive credit stress build-up in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. All before the job loss recession in 2008 Image
Jun 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Fixed debt cost, rising wages, the best hedge against inflation on planet Earth.
A 30-year mortgage 🫡 Image When you have the best hedge on planet Earth on your books, you don't traditionally sell to be homeless when employed.
Maybe it's the Gotham in me, but I always thought that was an odd premise 😎
Remember, credit channels! Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🪵🪚 Input cost fell ☺️ Lumber vs. Housing 2023 call failed 🪓 for the right reason. Forward data started to get better on November 9th video below will explain the rest Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If we are talking only about June 14th, 2022 - June 14th 2023 Everything changed November 9th, 2022 🫡 If you want a educational tutorial on how to properly track weekly forward-looking , this is what we do
housingwire.com/podcast/logan-…
Jun 14, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Keeping rates where the 3,6 & 12 months core PCE was always a lie; they want one thing, break labor and wages! 🫡 When boomers are talking about the 1970's inflation, and they're Fed members it's only one outcome folks
Jun 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates… Image Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
We will add the data in the thread below. Homeowners are good 💪🏽🔥📈 Chart 1
Homeowners were stressed in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. All before the job loss recession in 2008. Credit channels were different from 1996-2005. No longer the case after the 2005 BK reform law and 2010 QM laws Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Purchase application data update

+8% week to week, breaks the 4-week negative run

-27% year over year ( Remember comps are getting easier for YoY data, don't put too much weight here)

Let's review where we are today since seasonality is over with this data line. Image Year to date, 11 positives vs. 11 negative data
Since November 9th, 18 positives vs. 11 negative data
After February 2nd, it's been a wash in this data line.
No real direction either way.
We are working from a historically low bar, a tad over 2014 levels. Context is vital.
Jun 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Theme of this session Image Zonda and @HousingWire represent today Image
Jun 13, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
#CPI 📉 Image Image
May 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Existing home sales are coming up; we should see a month-to-month decline. Unless rates fall meaningfully, I will keep the sales range between 4.6 - 4 million this year. This would mean that one big spike in sales would be the peak monthly sales print Image Even though purchase application data has had more positive purchase apps than negative YTD, not much is happening outside stabilization. Seasonality will be done with this data line by the end of this month. Image
May 18, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Best advice Dont use 2005-2007 housing data for anything right now; it's not the correct model to use This isn't a valid premise, showcasing mutiple charts why Image
May 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Efficent sellers and love the fact we have 14,000,000 vacant homes as competition 😉😇 Talk about having the best timing for a backlog of homes to wind down.
Like it's a mirage that inventory was so high! 🤨

Remember only 71,000 new homes available for sale Image
May 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There is a notion that if rates fall enough, more sellers come to the market.
Remember, when someone lists their home, they usually buy something, so the inventory channel data doesn't rise in that setting

A forced equity seller that lost their job wouldn't be able to buy again Image This is why the biggest spike ever recorded in U.S. history regarding active listing came when we had the credit bust.
Forced credit sellers that couldn't buy a home
2005-2007 period, all before the job loss recession.
In fact, inventory peaked one year before the recession Image