Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
🇺🇸💪🏽📈🔥😤 Lead Analyst for @HousingWire Financial Truth On Housing Economics. All American Bears have failed since 1790. Press inquiries: Press@HWMedia.com
Papa De Razón Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
Jun 19 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Inventory is growing now ☺️ Total inventory data here: The last time we had inventory growth was 2014. That was the last year purchase application data was negative. Different story now, we are working from all time lows in inventory starting from this year, purchase apps data will be negative this year.
Jun 19 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Here is a historical look at rent. Now the premise is people always need shelter so higher rates keep more renters in place and the supply hasn’t really grown to reverse the growth trend. Even in the great financial recession, where you saw shelter units have more supply, Shelter CPI data only went negative briefly.
Jun 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Jun 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Jun 12 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
People on Twitter seemed confused about why home prices have escalated out of control since 2020. I will try my best to explain this but know that the growth rate of prices has more to do with inventory collapsing than demand. First, we have had a group of people 😉since 2012 who didn't believe in housing inflation but housing deflation and were caught off guard in 2020. This article is designed to show you the history of housing inventory, particularly since 2012 🧐housingwire.com/articles/are-h…
Jun 11 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
12.6% of the country has rates of 3% or below 38.2% have rates between 3%-4%
Jun 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
😉 Deep Housing Recession, We just don't have the overinvestment or credit boom of 2002-2005.
For now, get inventory higher! 🙏🏾 You can clearly see it in the new home sales data. When you don't have a credit sales boom, the downturns are much more manageable
Jun 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Higher rates always sting this sector more than the existing home sales market. As existing inventory picks up, that is more (Cheaper) competition As soon as the 10-year yield broke above 1.94%, the market dynamics changed in March. housingwire.com/articles/new-h…
Jun 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Jun 10 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
😇 (Ignore the home builder statement) and look at the red bars Image Let's be honest only one group of people believed in housing deflationary collapses since 2012. 🤨🤔
Notice that bump in the yellow bars; that is ages 28-34, the biggest age group ever! Image
Jun 10 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
#CPI 📈🔥 Image #CPI Image
Jun 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I don't believe this for real estate because I firmly believe that the builders only build based on their demand curve, and the previous expansion was the weakest housing recovery ever. Missed sales estimates in 2013,2014, 2015 & 2018 had a supply shock that paused construction The older days Image
Jun 9 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
For the life of me, I will never, ever understand the people on Twitter that believe we have no housing shortage; demand is booming so much that the price gains from 2020 were all valid 😉 Image Like this was normal, even though we had no sales or credit boom.
🤨 Image
Jun 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The nested equity positions of homeowners 🫣 Going back 40 years! I kid you not; yes, we got data that old. The only time we had panic selling of scale was 2006-2011, which was forced credit selling; this is part of the inventory issue. Short time only, this is open to the public housingwire.com/articles/are-h…
Jun 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The big difference between renters and homeowners, owners' cash flow is much better, and they have the most enormous nominal consumer debt. 😇
Jun 8 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Purchase application data
down 7% week to week
down 21% year over year
4-week moving average down 16.5% year over year
We are getting closer to the range I thought we should be at on the 4-week MA 18%-22% declines.
The comps will get harder starting in October. You know my thing, housing got savagely unhealthy, and the only way to create inventory is by higher rates.
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
It's crazy that so many people missed the housing data before Covid19 hit us. Purchase apps up to March 18th of 2020. These aren't even hard data lines to read either. February data we got toward the end of March when Covid19 hit us, but very evident that housing was breaking on in demand before Covid19 came. Again we aren't talking about difficult data to read. The median sales price was up over 8% in this report too.
Jun 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Forbearance went from near 5,000,000 to under 500K today. The Forbearance Crash Bros were all really Anti-Central Bank Housing Bubble Boys 2.0 people; I just gave them a new name for 2020/2021

#RIP The biggest reason this group failed is that they didn't read. Reading is a good thing, not a bad thing
Jun 7 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Housing peaked in 2005, not 2008 🤨and if you read more of the report, you see this. 😇 Maybe, just maybe, it's the Gotham in me, but this doesn't look like 2006-2011 😉
Jun 7 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The Fed doesn't see recessionary data because the data is still expanding. They're staying the course Maybe it's just a data nerd in me, but I don't remember any recession having positive real sales, production, and over 1,000,000 jobs created in the first few months.
Jun 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
👍🏾 Recessionary data isn't hard to spot once it's there. The fact that people actually believed we were in a recession in 2022 is really social media America post-2008, as people always thought a recession was here. 😇