Thread by @clement_molin

For only 3 weeks, russian 🇷🇺 airforce launched 1 500 airstrikes between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, more than the previous monthly count.

Up to 40% of all russian airstrikes are happening in Pokrovsk in preparation for a larger offensive which may soon happen.

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I've never documented that much airstrikes in this area since I'm counting them. I started on june 11th, counting may and until june 11th.

From july 11th to august 11th, I mapped 1 400 airstrikes in 4 weeks, from august 11th to september 3, I mapped additional 1 500 airstrikes.

This graph from @M0nstas shows the large increase in the use of airstrikes "bombs".

From 1 000 a month in 2024 to an average of 3 000 to 5 000 a month, especially in april with more than 5 000.

This month of august, 4 400 ! I estimate ~1 800 are from Pokrovsk, 40% !

How much a day, how much a week ?

Every week, there have been 250 (may), 300-350 (june), 400-450 (july) and 500 airstrikes in august and september.

The last 2 months, we have beetween 40 and 75 airstrikes a day between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka !

My airstrikes maps are following the same patern :

Red, then orange, then blue (july 11th - august 11th) and yellow, august 11th to september 11th.

You can see a large displacement westwards. In total, I have 4 600 airstrikes in ~4 months.

First, let me show you my methodology : here is a video I made some weeks ago, which will allow you to understand how I'm working and why it's taking me so much time !

Now, lets analyse 6 different directions, with for each, a satellite image and my airstrike map.

1- Kostiantynivka :

Russia started its airstrike campaign inside the city itself, with more than 70 impacts.

2- North of Toretsk, older and newer airstrikes.

3- Behind the new Donbass line

4- East of Dobropilla

5- Bilytske, détruit par les bombardements.

We can see a large concentration of airstrikes south of Kostiantynivka, near the New Donbass line, east of dobropilla and in Bilytske.

If you remember my previous analysis with the blue color, for july 11th to august 11th, we could see where Russia was going to push.

Now, we can say that after the succesfull counter-attacks, Russia wants first to enlarge its flanks and push to reach Kostiantynivka and Myrnohrod.

In blue, I marked the area of concentration of ukrainian forces which are being pinned by airstrikes.

For now, Russia is failing to push against the strongly defended cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. The battle for Pokrovsk now started one year ago !

Instead, they are now pushing on peripherical directions, in Lyman and in the south-east, west of Velika Novosilka.

After the alert of the Dobropilla breakthrough, Ukraine reaction was good and managed to stop russian progression around Pokrovsk.

No end to the war and winter is slowly coming.

The end of the war before the end of this year is highly unlikely because Russia is not willing to stop before conquering any city.

They have 2 months to push before the winter which will be very bloody, more than before.

Sincejanuary, Russia's strategy have been to launch small group of people hiding in the trees. But with no cover in winter, this can only be done in cities, which means Russia need to enter both Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter.

It is very likely that airstrike campaign will continue and intensify. A renewed russian offensive may happen in the following weeks, following this large airstrike preparation.

Thank you for following this new thread. Probably tomorrow, I will post a long thread on the massive defensive line which is being extended to Poland !