Pourquoi la contre-offensive ukrainienne 🇺🇦 de 2023 a-t-elle échoué ? Qui est le responsable de cet échec, Zelensky ou Zaloujny ?

Cette offensive qui n'a rien achevé porte une responsabilité partagée, ses stigmates sont aujourd'hui encore visibles.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ L'échec de l'offensive du sud en 2023 est avant tout l'échec de Volodimir Zelensky.

C'est lui et le pouvoir politique qui portent une grande part de responsabilité, en ayant voulu contredire ce que prévoyait le commandement militaire.

I now mapped 350 (!) ukrainian 🇺🇦 long range drone strikes into russian 🇷🇺 occupied territory

🔹19 strikes against air-defense
🔹25 strikes against radar
🔹21 strikes against planes
🔹10 strikes against trains
🔹9 strikes against rocket/missile launchers

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Thanks to the very good job done by @UAControlMap and @UkraineDailyUpd gathering data from geolocators like @99Dominik_ @moklasen @giK1893 and others...

I gathered all those long range strikes into occupied territory since the year started :

Dams and bridge targeted, drone recon, airstrike campaign, mechanized assault, Russia 🇷🇺 is slowly starting its Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive

I mapped more than 4 000 airstrikes from the Donets river to Hulialpole this winter and analysed the troops movements :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️ For now more than 3 years, Russia has been preparing the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk battle.

It was the objective on defeating the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk line in 2023, it was the objective during the Donetsk suburbs battle (2024) and the Pokrovsk battle (2025).

40% of russian 🇷🇺 oil exports are currently stopped after Ukraine 🇺🇦 attacked the Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk crude oil ports.

At the same time, the Druzhba pipeline remains closed and multiple refineries have been hit. This is a big blow to Russia.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ With the war in Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Strait, the oil and gas prices have climbed.

Russia was hoping to capitalize on the situation to sell more oil and gas at higher prices, in order to rebuild its finances.

However, Ukraine acted to stop this.

Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ This is the small town of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

You can see one line 5km east of the town, a second one 1km east, which is a ring, going all around, protecting it on all flanks, which will allow it to be a strongpoint.

Le mois de mars 2026 pourrait être le pire mois de progression russe 🇷🇺 en Ukraine 🇺🇦 depuis le printemps 2024.

L'accélération promise par beaucoup d'analystes depuis 3 ans n'a toujours pas eu lieu et l'armée ukrainienne tient sans l'aide américaine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️ Alors que le lancement des offensives de printemps de l'armée russe se fait attendre (Ocheretyne au printemps 2024 et la route Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka en 2025), l'armée russe ne montre aucun signe d'une accélération de sa progression.

Source des données : @Pouletvolant3 ⬇️

3 weeks have now passed following the start of the US 🇺🇸-Israeli 🇮🇱 operation to topple the regime in Iran 🇮🇷

🔸The Islamic regime is still holding
🔸The Hormuz Strait is closed
🔸Iran continues to retaliate
🔸No new protest in Iran
🔸US/ISR operations continue

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️ Here are the main objectives of the operation:

🔸Create the conditions for regime change in Tehran
🔸Destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs
🔸End attacks against the United States and Israel in the region (Iran and its proxies)

Since the US 🇺🇸 - Israeli 🇮🇱 operations in Iran 🇮🇷 started, more than 15 000 aistrikes happened, half by the IDF, half by the USAF

Since the first day, I made around 10 different maps and gathered multiple others. Here, you can see two zones of strikes :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ My very first map was made with preliminary informations, showing US/ISR strikes and Iranian retaliation on the first day.

I put on a map a video showing 60 russian 🇷🇺 bodies on a 700 meter road along the Kazanny Torets river near the village of Boikivka.

This road is only 1 500 meters from the infamous Novotoretske village with the hundreds dead russian soldiers.

🧵1/7 ⬇️ Novotoretske is usually famous for this path between a barbed wire and dragon teeths.

There is only one hole in the barbed wire so the russian soldiers have been crossing in this only place, amouting nearly 60 dead here.

https://x.com/TheRussianEnd/status/1975172139855523921?s=20

En cartes, les 19 jours d'opérations israélo 🇮🇱 -américaines 🇺🇸 en Iran 🇮🇷

J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient :

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️ En tout, les Etats-Unis et Israël auraient réalisé plus de 15 000 frappes sur l'Iran, un chiffre qui reste à vérifier.

En tout, j'ai pu confirmer 1 450 frappes (min), avec une différence entre les villes ayant les données géolocalisées et celles avec le nombre de bombardements.

Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues its advance in the south, strikes on Russian rear lines, while the Russian offensive on Dobropilla begins: an update on the war in Ukraine:

The Ukrainian army's tactical successes should not hide the difficulty of the overall situation.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️ Ukrainian forces continued their local counter-attacks south of Pokrovsk'e, reaching Novohryhorivka and probably Novoivanivka on the Velika Novosilka - Hulialpole road.

This does not mean they control the area. At the same time, russian forces continue to push westwards.

Vitaly has very good points here on where the russian 🇷🇺 offensive will happen this year in Ukraine 🇺🇦

I agree 100% with his conclusions and I also gathered a lot of data during the last 2 weeks (not publicly) that are showing the same thing.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️

https://twitter.com/M0nstas/status/2033297884582461696

I analysed the last two years of russian units deployments on the frontlines.

Here are the localisation of the russian brigades and divisions in the last two years in the frontline areas I cut (Could do that with the 6 grouping as well). You can see the frontline trends.

La Hongrie 🇭🇺 au tournant, deux immenses marches organisées à Budapest à 1 mois des élections :

Une marche pro-Orban ("pour la paix" et Anti-Zelenski) est organisée devant le Parlement.

Une marche pro-Magyar (opposition) organisée au Heros' Square.

🧵THREAD🧵1/⬇️


C'est un jour historique pour la Hongrie. A moins d'un mois des élections générales qui opposeront principalement Victor Orban (extrême droite, au pouvoir depuis 15 ans) et le leader de l'opposition Peter Magyar (droite conservatrice), deux grandes manifestations sont en cours.

As the spring is slowly starting, russian 🇷🇺 forces are expected to start their long awaited Sloviansk-Kramatorsk battle.

Offensive actions are already ongoing for few months around Siversk, with the first notable gains on the Sloviansk axis. In the south, russian forces still have difficulties to enter Kostiantynivka and are not yet able to threaten the logistical routes to the fortress.

I expect the main battle to soon start on this axis, especially betwen Dobropilla (that can be assaulted as well, but it will take time) and Drujkivka. The main point for russian forces is to conquer Raiske, which will threaten the rear of Kostiantynivka. At the same time, I expect assault operations in and around Lyman to threaten the Izium-Sloviansk road.

Russian forces will face significant resistance from ukrainian forces, which will be helped with the terrain, the new fortified lines and the scale of those town to stop the russian advance. The main russian objective will be to secure tactical height west and east of the wtin cities, especially to cut the 3 main roads leading to the agglomeration (Izium, Barvinkove and Dobropilla.

The map is my understaning of the russian plan/expectations for the next 6 to 12 months. Additional offensive actions will probably take place on the Orikhiv front, as well as near Pokrovsk and on the Oskil direction. Ukrainian forces used all the winter to continue their defensive preparation.

Here in red are all the new fortifciations in Zaporizhzhia direction since the year started.

Ces frappes ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 qui terrorisent les arrières de l'armée russe 🇷🇺

Depuis le début d'année 2026, des centaines de frappes de drones ciblent les radars, les trains, la défense aérienne et les bases arrières de l'armée russe en Ukraine occupée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13⬇️ FP-1, FP-2, c'est le nom donné à ces nouveaux drones longue distance de l'armée ukrainienne. Le FP1-1 peut atteindre 1 500 km, le FP-2 200 km.

Il existe aussi le FP-3, en développement, le FP-4 pour le signal radio embarqué, le FP-5 Flamingo, le célèbre drone-missile longue portée.

Il existe également le FP-6, FP-7, FP-8 et FP-9, différente version de drones/missiles à longue portée en plein développement côté ukrainien.

The Israeli 🇮🇱 - American 🇺🇸 war in Iran 🇮🇷 now started 2 weeks ago

The Middle East is sinking into war, Iran has not fallen, and an economic crisis looms. What happened to MAGA ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ MAGA, "Make America Great Again", promised an end to American interventions abroad and a focus on domestic affairs.

Yet, a year into Trump's second term, America launched its biggest war in two decades, contradicting MAGA's core principles and promises.

After 11 days of war in the Middle East, here is a new MAP UPDATE 🇮🇷/🇮🇱🇺🇸

The Hormuz Strait remains closed, Iran and Hezbollah continue to launch strikes, while the US and Israel intensify their campaign in multiple Iranian cities.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️ This is THE breaking news for today. Multiple Iranian made Shahed drones reached for the second time southern Oman, hitting the oil facilities of Salalah Port.

Oman 🇴🇲, which remains neutral, was one of the only state congratulating the new Iranian Ayatollah...

Assaut mécanisé ukrainien 🇺🇦 dans le village de Novohryhorivka, à 23km au sud de Pokrovsk'e et 3km d'Uspenivka

Cette vidéo et les images satellites confirment la progression ukrainienne dans le secteur, qui visent à ralentir l'offensive russe vers Zaporijjia.

🧵FIL🧵1/5⬇️

https://twitter.com/99Dominik_/status/2031301689806839914

Ces dernières semaines, l'armée russe a redéployé le 68ème corps d'armée, la 40ème brigade et la 55ème division d'infanterie navale et la 39ème brigade motorisée dans le secteur d'Houlialpole.

https://x.com/WarUnitObserver/status/2029978267978023089?s=20

After 10 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, the economical situation is worsening

Here is a new MAP UPDATE with the military situation, the economical situation, some analysis and some prospects :

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️ The war has been going on for now more than 10 days and the repercussion are felt worldwide.

Iran held despite constant strikes which obliterated its navy and airforce and still continues to launch important drone and missile strikes across the region.

Ukrainian fortifications under construction around the town of Shakhtarske in Dnipropetrovsk oblast

🧵Some images of recent fortifications in Ukraine + some pictures of big cities ⬇️ Ring fortifications around Vassylkivka

Quelles implications pour chaque Etat du Moyen-Orient dans la guerre ?

Chacun des ~19 Etats de la région est touché de manière plus ou moins profonde par la guerre, voici un petit résumé Etat par Etat.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ (Partenariat qui peut vous servir) :

L'histoire et la géopolitique de la région étant complexe, pour ceux qui n'ont pas eu de cours dessus ou veulent se remettre à niveau, voici une formation :



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