For the fourth month, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more drones into Russia 🇷🇺 than Russia launched drones into Ukraine

With a much bigger territory, Russia is more difficult to defend, but Russian strikes can easily reach all of Ukraine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ As you can see, the number of reported Ukrainian drones (the ones downed) by Russian MOD continues to climb, while the number of reported Russian drones stalled and decreased.

There are still a few days in the month before the final numbers.

Who controls Kostiantynivka 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ?

There is a very big debate to know who really controls the city of Kostiantynivka, in the Donbas region.

Many maps are showing the city as Russian controled, which in my opinion is not true, as I will explain it here.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ I gathered geolocations for the last 40 days in the city, from @UAControlMap, mainly done by @AudaxonX.

Those geolocations show flag videos, air, artillery and drone strikes as well as assault videos.

3 things you should know :

🔸We only see 5% maximum of the real situation on videos, those are known positions at a given moment, which is nowhere close to the reality on the ground.
🔸There is an important image assymetry. Russia is posting more videos of flags and few strikes while Ukraine doesn't publish flag videos but publish much more strikes. Thus, I have 146 places where Russian are confirmed present, against 94 Ukrainian. This doesn't mean there are more Russians than Ukraine, Russia published 70 videos of flags !
🔸On the map, we have plenty of areas undereported, with few Ukrainian positions when we know there are many or few Russian positions when we know there are many.

For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large mechanized assault in the Dobropilla-Drujkivka area

Two armoured columns reinforced by multiple unarmoured vehicles from the 90th tank division and the 41st/8th CAA attempted to breakthrough in the Shakove area.

As you can see in the quoted tweet, this area has been subjected to heavy airstrike campaign for more than one month, while it remained a secondary direction until may. You can see here in white the recent airstrikes impacts in this direction, the same one where Russia obtained a breakthrough last year. Azov 1st Corps, which has been successfully defending the area for nearly a year managed to prevent any armoured breakthrough, showing multiple destroyed vehicles and pontoon bridges. However, infiltrations are slowly getting more frequent and Russian soldiers are often recorded behind the current grey zone, despite the absence of visual proof. As you can see, Russian armies in this direction are not doing too much PR videos with flags, which is why we have fewer flag videos. This area is right now the most strategic of the Donbas, Russia absolutely needs to control it to be able to reach Dobropilla or Drujkivka to have a fire control over the roads leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Why did Russia launch a mechanized assault here ? The main reason is how difficult it is to get there. We've recently seen videos of an impressive number of logistical and assault unarmoured vehicles destroyed on roads leading to here. This area is one of the deadliest, with older Ukrainian fortifications complicating any movement. Launching a mechanized assault helps to bring hundreds of men close to the front (even if 150 die and 150 manage to reach those positions, all of them will be able to assault and infiltrate further in the coming weeks).

As I said a month ago, I was expecting a large scale assault here, in order to unblock the front leading to Drujkivka and Dobropilla. As Russian soldiers are infiltrating and consolidating into Kosiantynivka, they will slowly manage to take full control over the city (maybe until autumn, the same way it happened in Toretsk), now the priority for them is to prepare the next battle, for Drujkivka.

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2072664641386226075

Videos of the repelled assault : x.com/azov_media/sta…
x.com/moklasen/statu…

Ukraine's 🇺🇦 mid-range strike campaign against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics continues, with more than 1 350 strikes on trucks and vehicles since early may

Railways, air-defense systems and energy infrastructure is also being hit on a daily basis.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Yesterday, @414magyarbirds posted an update about strikes on the key R-280 highway, so called "Novorossia" road between Rostov and Crimea.

On this road alone, I have around 175 geolocalized trucks and vehicles hit since early may.

In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.

During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground.

Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them.

In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those :

Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

https://x.com/Pouletvolant3/status/2072347366103937460?s=20

In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.

This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).

Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.

Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.

La guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 a désormais dépassé la durée de la Première Guerre mondiale et pourrait encore durer plusieurs années.

Voici ce qu’il faut savoir en juin 2026 de ce conflit généralisé aux portes de l’Europe 🇪🇺 qui n'en finit plus.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Quel est l’objectif de guerre de la Russie, pays agresseur ?

Les objectifs de guerre de la Fédération de Russie ont beaucoup évolué depuis quatre ans. Outre les déclarations officielles, le principal objectif russe est resté territorial et politique. Moscou cherchait, le 24 février, à vassaliser l’Ukraine tout en annexant une large région, la « Novorossia », entre Kharkiv, le Donbass et Odessa. Cet objectif a largement évolué, notamment après l’échec des offensives sur Kyiv, Kharkiv et Odessa.

Aujourd’hui, l’objectif territorial principal reste l’occupation de toute la région du Donbass, en particulier sa capitale de facto, Kramatorsk. Il est très probable que l’armée russe dispose de deux objectifs territoriaux secondaires : l’occupation complète des deux autres oblasts annexés, Kherson (ce qui est quasi impossible à l’heure actuelle) et Zaporijjia, et l’harmonisation de la ligne de front sur la rivière Oskil dans l’oblast de Kharkiv.

L’objectif politique initial — redonner à la Russie sa puissance d’antan, l’ancrer dans l’Eurasie, retrouver les populations, les industries, les mines et l’accès à la mer des deux voisins slaves (l’Ukraine et la Biélorussie) — reste inchangé. Sans l’Ukraine, la Russie est condamnée à être une puissance secondaire et plus largement asiatique, sa dimension d’empire s’effaçant avec la montée en parallèle de la démographie non slave.

Les autres objectifs qui ont pu jouer un rôle auparavant sont caduques aujourd’hui : la démilitarisation de l’Ukraine semble impossible, quatre ans de guerre d’attrition n’ayant pas conduit à un effondrement ukrainien. La dénazification, étendard pour parler de l’effacement du nationalisme ukrainien, est également un échec. Les nationalistes ukrainiens sont plus forts et décomplexés que jamais, représentant près de 100 000 hommes dans l’armée ukrainienne. Les figures antirusses controversées d’Europe centrale et orientale ont par ailleurs été réhabilitées. Empêcher l’OTAN et l’UE de s’étendre à l’Est était aussi un mirage. Bien que la considération eût été réelle, la Suède et la Finlande ont rejoint l’Alliance, tandis que la Moldavie, le Caucase du Sud, les Balkans occidentaux et l’Ukraine ont accéléré leur rapprochement avec l’Europe, tous brandissant la menace russe.

L’objectif russe est donc désormais d’installer la confrontation dans la durée, jusqu’à un effondrement hypothétique de l’aide à l’Ukraine (qui semble compromise par la dernière aide de l’UE), l’essoufflement de la population ukrainienne (une considération bien réelle mais qui n’impactera probablement pas la situation au front) ou une victoire à la Pyrrhus, que ce soit la prise du Donbass suivie d’un cessez-le-feu ou une capitulation de l’Ukraine comme la Finlande en 1940.

For months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been conducting a series of deep infiltrations on the Velika Novosilka front.

Some of Russia’s 2025 gains have already been reversed, with the February counter-attack expanding to a 40-kilometer front.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/2066093709360247128

As a reminder, in February, the Ukrainian army conducted a discreet offensive for several weeks, clearing infiltrated areas, securing Pokrovsk'e and infiltrating areas that were previously under Russian control.

The Ukrainian 🇺🇦 blocus of Crimea is starting 🇷🇺

After they repeatedly hit bridges connecting Crimea and occupied Kherson oblast, the Ukrainians started implementing a blocus of the peninsula.

Last night, trucks and a pontoon bridge were hit.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Last night, the Code 9.2, Phalanx and the davinci units launched multiple strikes against targets in and around the key roads leading to Crimea.

Last night, multiple Ukrainian 🇺🇦 units hit the bridges leading to Crimea, further isolating the peninsula from the land bridge to Russia 🇷🇺

At the same time, strike campaign continues on multiple key roads, with over 375 vehicles and trucks hit since early May.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2065091949833359402

Crimea is connected with southern occupied Ukraine by multiple key bridges.

The one in Chonhar was hit few days ago by multiple drones, which forced the russians to put up a pontoon bridge for their road traffic.

Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues its massive mid-range strike campaign against russian 🇷🇺 logistics.

Since early May, more than 290 russian trucks and vehicles have been hit. I have now mapped 210 strikes since january.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️ The strike campaign is guided by multiple units, using a large veriety of drones.

The backbone of it are the FP-1/2 strikes on key logistics hubs, mainly oil/fuel depots, trains, gas stations, electric substations and rear bases.

Those strikes are often guided with AI.

In southern Ukraine 🇺🇦, Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue their offensive from Hulialpole to Orikhiv, a strategic town

I mapped more than 1 400 Russian airstrikes, supporting multiple offensive axes in May, while Ukraine nearly finished its fortifications.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ In May 2026, Russia conducted 7 486 airstrikes, I managed to locate 52% of those.

18% of those strikes are targeting ukrainian positions near Hulialpole. We can add as well 6% of related airstrikes in Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia areas.

Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues to launch an important number of mid-range strike, targeting Russian 🇷🇺 logistics in occupied territories

Since early may, more than 270 trucks have been hit, together with multiple fuel depots and trains.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️ In total, Ukraine 🇺🇦 striked around 270 trucks and vehicles more than 20km from the frontline since early may.

I still need to add earlier proofs, but this number is probably closer to 350-400 confirmed losses this year.

Did Nikol Pashinyan save Armenia 🇦🇲 from disappearing?

One week before historic parliamentary elections in which he leads the polls, the outgoing prime minister defends his record.

Russian 🇷🇺 interference in the country has been increasing recently.

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️ In 2018, a popular uprising erupted in Armenia after President Serzh Sargsyan circumvented the constitution to secure his re-election as prime minister.

Riding the wave of the Velvet Revolution, Nikol Pashinyan arrived with a promise: to reduce corruption and the influence of the oligarchs.

Since the year started, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more than 1 000 mid-range drone strikes (only geolocated ones).

The intensification of strikes against russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ The ukrainian mid-range drone strike is quite recent. It started at the end of last year and quickly intensified in 2026.

Ukraine is using :
🔹Big fixed wings drones : FP-1/2
🔹Small fixed wings drones : Hornet/Bulava/RAM X...
🔹Short/Long range FPV.

Here 2 Hornet on a truck :