Thread by @0xChainMind

🚨BREAKING: BULL RUN WILL END IN 50 DAYS!

Cycle Peak Countdown indicator says $BTC is 95% done

I researched all the data and found smth interesting

Here is what will happen and why we will dump hard soon🧵👇🏻

➫ Before we get started

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1/➫ I know many of my followers don't have much money to invest in

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2/➫ Market cycles are simple but brutal

❍ Bitcoin rises in four acts

- Accumulation
- Rally
- Euphoric blow-off
- Crash

❍ We’re deep in act three – profit is everywhere, sentiment is high, and history says the finale comes fast

❍ Let me explain more👇

3/➫ On-chain confirms it

❍ Nearly 90% of supply is in profit, MVRV and NUPL are stretched

❍ That kind of across-the-board profitability only happens near cycle tops

❍ It’s the moment when holders turn into sellers, setting the stage for reversals

4/➫ Spot ETFs hold ~$142B AUM, flows flipped positive again in September after summer outflows

❍ Yet inflows are modest, not euphoric

❍ That’s late-stage behavior – cautious buying into what could be the final leg

5/➫ Seasonality strengthens the case

❍ Sep 2025 was flat at +2.3%, keeping the weak late-summer pattern

❍ But Q4 flips the script:

+10.8% Oct 2024
+37.3% Nov 2024
+25.5% Oct 2023
+42.9% Nov 2020

❍ Oct – Nov has always delivered the parabolic moves that close bull cycles

6/➫ Price action already mimics past cycles

❍ August’s $124K ATH followed by a dip to ~$110K mirrors 2017 and 2021 late-summer pullbacks

❍ Those dips were the pause before the blow-off

❍ Key supports are $97–101K – lose them and the script breaks

7/➫ Miners are still in the green

❍ Their average break-even cost sits near $95K, while BTC trades above $111K

❍ That margin keeps rigs running and removes forced selling pressure

❍ As long as miners stay profitable, supply stress isn’t the trigger for a top just yet

8/➫ Now the timing math

❍ We are 1,020 days past the Nov 2022 bottom, and past cycles topped after 1,060–1,100 days

❍ That puts the peak in late Oct–mid Nov 2025 – roughly 50 days away

❍ This isn’t guesswork: it’s the same rhythm that marked 2017 and 2021 blow-offs

9/➫ Halving confirms the timing

❍ April 2024 cut block rewards in half, reducing new supply dramatically

❍ Historically, cycle peaks follow 520–580 days later – and right now we’re 510 days in

❍ That means we are entering zone where every past blow-off top has taken place

10/➫ What happens after the peak?

❍ Each cycle has ended with a 70–80% drawdown stretched over 370–410 days

❍ If BTC tops near $120K, the script points to ~$30K lows by late 2026

❍ The bear always arrives slower than expected, but it never fails to come

11/➫ Altcoins always follow last

❍ Bitcoin peaks first, then liquidity rotates as traders chase one final run in alts

❍ That phase is fast and euphoric, but collapses hit harder than BTC

❍ Both 2018 and 2021 proved the script – nothing suggests 2025 will be different

12/➫ All roads converge:

- On-chain greed
- Cautions ETF flows
- Explosive Q4 seasonality
- Cycle math

❍ ~50 days remain for the blow-off top before winter sets in

❍ Discipline now decides who keeps profits and who rides them back down

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➫ I hope you've found this thread helpful!

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