1/6 Russia’s economy is falling apart.
Ukraine’s strike campaign is hitting key sectors hard.
Even before the war, Russia’s economy was fragile: reliant on energy exports, too centralized, corrupt, and facing a labor crisis.
The war made it all worse
2/6 The war has made everything worse.
Russia now depends on energy exports and the defense industry.
Civilian sectors are starved of labor.
The economy is shrinking from within
3/6 Despite massive public spending, Russia barely grows.
Inflation is rising, but output is flat.
If any Western country increased its spending this much, it would see a boom.
Russia sees stagnation. That is a disaster
4/6 Ukraine’s strikes are hitting refineries and defense production.
Recruitment costs are rising.
Russia is burning cash just to stay in the fight.
The pressure keeps growing
5/6 Even Nabiullina, one of the world’s best central bankers, cannot fix this.
Putin’s options are limited: raise taxes, seize assets, ask allies for help, shift infrastructure east.
None of this solves the core problem. It only buys time
6/6 Collapse is coming.
The timing depends on three things:
•How fast Ukraine scales up drone and missile production
•How much aid Russia gets from allies
•How far Putin is willing to go to delay the inevitable
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