Thread by @neilthomas123

Big update! China just confirmed it has fired number-two general He Weidong

9 generals, inc 8 Central Committee members, expelled from the CCP

1 Politburo vacancy, 3 Central Military Commission vacancies, 11 CC vacancies

Will Xi fill them at the Fourth Plenum next week?

1/

Xi may leave the Politburo and CMC depleted

No one replaced Sun Zhengcai when he was purged from the Politburo in 2017

And Xi has repeatedly declined to promote Li Shangfu's successor Dong Jun to the CMC

Absences make it easier for him to dominate and help punish the PLA

2/

Still, He Weidong was the first uniformed CMC vice chair purged since the 1960s

Xi may be fine with ally Zhang Youxia as sole vice chair. Or he may want balance🤷‍♂️

But Miao Hua handled PLA loyalty, a Xi priority. @jonczin suggests some possible replacements for him:

3/

What Xi will almost certainly do is fill the 11 vacancies on the Central Committee with top-listed alternates

Why? These are not especially powerful roles.

Decisions are not made at plenums but by Xi and his close advisers beforehand

Here's a list of likely new CC members

4/

Pnly wrinkle is that there are a couple of PLA alternates due a promotion

If Wang Liyan and Wang Kangping get skipped over that will suggest that they too have been caught up in PLA corruption purges

Read more about next week's Fourth Plenum on the @AsiaPolicy website

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