Thread by @admcrlsn

Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race.

Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom).

Let’s nerd out.

🧵

BIG PICTURE:

Mamdani currently leads Cuomo 50.4% to 41.6%, with 93% of precincts reporting.

That margin may shift slightly with late arriving mail ballots & affidavit ballots.

Sliwa’s support collapsed in the home stretch, giving Cuomo a better than expected performance.

BOROUGH:

Unsurprisingly, Brooklyn was Mamdani’s strongest borough.

What was surprising was that the Bronx — Mamdani’s worst borough in the primary — was his second best borough in the GE. More on that later.

Cuomo handily won Staten Island (due to said Sliwa collapse).

WHITE VOTERS

Cuomo won precincts that were >60% white by 14 pts

— “Ethnic whites” in Staten, South Brooklyn & parts of central and east Queens

— Wealthier (and more Jewish) parts of Manhattan, especially the UES

— Hasidic areas (Borough Park, Crown Heights, S Williamsburg)

Mamdani cleaned up among white voters in Brownstone Brooklyn (Brooklyn Heights, Dumbo, Cobble Hill, Carroll Gardens, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Windsor Terrace, Ft. Greene), “hipster” North Brooklyn (Williamsburg, Greenpoint), and white parts of Astoria.

BLACK VOTERS

After struggling in most Black neighborhoods in the primary, Mamdani won precincts that were >60% Black by 26 pts — the highest of any major racial group

Mamdani did major outreach to Black communities post-primary & many Black voters always vote for the D nominee

The biggest flips were in:

— East Brooklyn (Brownsville, East Flatbush, Canarsie, East New York)

— Southeast Queens (Jamaica, Cambria Heights, St. Albans, Laurelton, Springfield Gardens, Rosedale)

— North Bronx (Williamsbridge, Edenwald)

Plus he carried Black Harlem again.

LATINO VOTERS:

Mamdani won precincts that were >60% Latino by 20 pts

From the primary, he improved most among Dominican & Puerto Rican voters in the Bronx

He once again carried Latino voters (Central/South Am) in Jackson Heights, Corona, Cypress Hills, Bushwick & Sunset Park

ASIAN VOTERS:

Mamdani won precincts that were >60% Asian by 4 pts.

Mamdani won South Asian areas in central Queens (as expected).

But Cuomo likely won East Asians — a group Mamdani did surprisingly well with in the primary. Cuomo did well in Flushing, Sunset Park & Gravesend.

Mamdani did well in Manhattan’s Chinatown.

Other areas, like Elmhurst, were split.

Whether this East Asian shift away from Mamdani is due to his policy positions on crime, education, etc. or indicative of a continuing trend toward the GOP is difficult to parse.

YOUNGER VOTERS

Age was one of the most — if not *the* most — significant dividing lines in the primary and general election.

Mamdani dominated in all younger areas except for Hasidic areas in Brooklyn & wealthier pockets of Lower Manhattan and the Upper East Side.

INCOME

Mamdani won precincts where the median income is <$50K by 8 pts — fueled by Black voters in East Brooklyn & Latinos in the Bronx.

Cuomo won precincts where the median income is >$200K by 3 pts — doing well in Manhattan while Mamdani did well in Brownstone Brooklyn.

EDUCATION

Mamdani won areas where most people have a college degree by 15 pts, fueled by The Commie Corridor, Brownstone Brooklyn & Upper Manhattan.

He also won areas where most people don’t have a college degree by 5 pts.

RENT VS OWN

Mamdani won areas where most people rent by 20 pts. Cuomo only really did well among Hasidic, outer borough ethnic white, & wealthier Manhattan renters.

Cuomo won areas where most people are homeowners by 14 pts. Mamdani really only did well among Black homeowners.

COMMUTE

Mamdani won precincts where most people commute via public transit by a whopping 29 pts.

Cuomo won precincts where most people commute via car by 23 pts. Mamdani only really did well among Black car commuters in SE Queens & pockets of the Bronx.

NEW VOTERS

Mamdani won precincts where >10% of voters registered this year by 19 pts.

Notable Mamdani registration surge neighborhoods:
— Ft. Greene
— Crown Heights
— Bed Stuy
— Bushwick
— Williamsburg
— Long Island City
— East Village
— Hell’s Kitchen

Cuomo’s new voter surge was limited to Hasidic areas, the Upper East Side, Midtown, and pockets of South Brooklyn & Eastern Queens.

Source:

nytimes.com/interactive/20…