Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

Remember this day.

Remember these names.

🧵 **AZ-01: DAVID SCHWEIKERT**

Northeast Maricopa County

2024 House: 🔴 R+3.8
2022 House: 🔴 R+0.9

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+3.1
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+1.5

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2018-2024: 🔵 -2.7

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 19%

If this is true, barring an act of god Eric Adams has zero path to victory in November.

https://twitter.com/emilyngo/status/1938346633244160209

Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers

But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot

With Sliwa in, it’s Joever

If you know even a single thing about Boston politics and governance, you’d know that this is laughably false.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1938290365565419936

1) 17K new affordable housing already built or being built

2) Free bus routes in subway desert areas (Black & Brown neighborhoods)

3) New accountability standards for police

4) $50M in funding to improve apartment complexes in Jamaica Plain

👀

Per @JCColtin and @abhinanda_b, let’s take a look at New York City Democratic elected officials that called on Cuomo to resign in 2021 (in light of the sexual harassment allegations made against him) that endorsed him in 2025 — in their own words.

1) U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres
2) U.S. Rep. Greg Meeks

Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens.

Here are 10 reasons to not rank Cuomo on your primary ballot, even if you have issues w/ Mamdani’s policies (🧵)

1) NY’s AG found that he sexually harassed 11 women

2) NY’s AG found that he understated the toll of COVID-19-related deaths in state nursing homes by as much as 83% 3) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Dems (IDC) & Republicans in the state Senate, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who say they were sexually abused as children

It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size

But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers) The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.

That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).

For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46

Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. We really didn’t deserve Lina

Ladies and gentlemen, your initial 2026 House battleground districts Tier two races (could become competitive under the right circumstances)

I guess we shouldn’t have passed the Affordable Care Act then, since a majority opposed it at the time.

i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/image… x.com/jonfavs/status… Lest we forget that the ensuing electoral shellacking Democrats took in 2010 led to President Romney two years later.

Based on race calls from AP & DDHQ (plus a candidate concession), here’s where the House stands:

🔴 Republican: 216 (+2 tilting R)
🔵 Democrats: 209 (+4 tilting D)

Ds need an inside straight

Let’s go district by district for the 10 races that are still too close to call:

🧵 #AKAL

No update, with Begich (R) leading Peltola (D) by just over 10K votes (or 4.1 pts) with 76% reporting.

A lot of the remaining vote appears to be from rural areas, which should help Peltola given its high Alaska Native population.

Probably Tilt R but a lot left to count

When you see results starting to come in tomorrow night (& beyond) context is everything

Sometimes mail and/or early ballots are counted first (more D), then Election Day ballots are counted (more R) — causing a “blue mirage”

Sometimes there’s a red mirage

Here’s a guide:

🧵 Sources:

NBC News
nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-k…

Bookmark both of these (FiveThirtyEight’s breaks down all 50 states, which will be helpful for downballot races)

We had a flurry of new polls in PA today that net out to an effective tie.

Those who know me well know I’m not much of an optimist.

But gather ‘round the campfire. Let me explain why I’m bullish on Harris in PA — and it has nothing to do with polls or early/mail voting.

🧵 Let’s start with what happened in 2020.

In its highest turnout election since 1992 (76.5%) — due largely to COVID/mail voting — Biden beat Trump by 1.2 points (50.0 - 48.8), or 80,555 votes.

He racked up huge margins in Philly and its suburbs & Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh).

Ok let’s dig in, shall we?

The final NYT/Siena National poll (10/20-23, n=2,516 likely voters) shows:

Head-to-head — tied (unrounded)
🔵 Harris 48%
🔴 Trump 48%

Full field — tied (unrounded)

🔴 Trump 47%
🔵 Harris 46%
🟢 Stein 2%
🟣 Others: 2%

What should we make of it?

🧵 The first reaction I’m seeing: “not great for Harris!”

I get that. And to some extent I agree with it.

Biden won by 4.5 pts in 2020 & won the Electoral College by the skin of his teeth (tipping point state, WI, was D+0.6).

Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the EC.

You may not like every decision she’s made or stance she’s taken, but it’s worth acknowledging how remarkable Harris’ campaign has been

Campaign continuity, ground game, raising her net favorability from -16 to -1, gaining 5-7 pts in every swing state — all in less than 100 days
Like you (and I) would be lying if you thought her campaign operation would be anywhere near this good even 4 months ago — especially after her 2019 presidential campaign

It was high-risk high-reward swapping out the presumptive nominee so late, and it ended up being the latter

New poll among swing state Latinos from the phenomenal @carlosodio & @EquisResearch

Fielded Oct 14-18, n=1,298 registered Latino voters in AZ/GA, NC, NV, MI, PA, WI

Harris leads 55-38

Harris has narrowly taken the lead on being “better for the economy”

weareequis.us/research/latin… The gender gap is *very* stark

Harris leads 61-31 among Latinas and is tied 47-47 among Latinos. Harris wins 82% among the youngest Latinas.

Echoing what we’ve seen in other polling of Latinos, there’s a sharp gender divide in who is seen as a stronger leader.

It’s November 6 at 4am.

GA & NC have been called for Trump.

MI & PA have been called for Harris.

WI is too close to call & we wait on mail ballot drops in razor thin AZ & NV

You think: “shit maybe I should’ve actually volunteered instead of obsessing over tiny polling shifts” I get that we all want to know what will happen in advance, and we (mistakenly) look to polling to give us some level of certainty around that.

I get that it’s easier to obsess about polling shifts online than to spend time knocking or donors or making phone calls.

From Oct 1-15, we’ve had 16 non-partisan aligned high-quality (2.0+ / 3.0⭐️ per 538) pollsters field national polls (combined total n=28,171)

I’ve aggregated the crosstabs by subgroup here, and compared them to 2020 estimates from Catalist/Pew/AP VoteCast

Some observations 🧵 By margin, Trump has made the most gains relative to 2020 among the following voter groups:

• Black (+16)
• <$50K household income (+11)
• Independents w/o leaners (+10)
• Bachelor’s degree (+9)
• Independents w/ leaners (+8)
• Men (+5)
• Non-College Grads (+4)

Newly released oversample of Latino voters from the NYT/Siena’s most recent national poll (9/29-10/6, n=902 LVs)

🔵Harris 56%
🔴Trump 37%

Per an avg of post-election estimates from Catalist/Pew/AP VoteCast, Trump’s matching his 2020 vote share but Harris is lagging Biden’s by 5 I’ve been aggregating crosstabs of high-quality non-partisan national polls since Nov 2023

Similar to Black voters, Harris has improved decently on Biden’s vote share among Latinos (55-58% range)

Trump ranges from 36-43%

The high water mark for an modern R is Bush 2004 (44%)

Here are the updated polling averages from the major aggregators.

Basically zero movement outside of NV (which inched less than a half point to the right due to WSJ poll showing Trump +6).

6 of the 7 swing states are within 1 point on balance, and the 7th (AZ) is at Trump +1.3. Basically: the truly bizarre amounts of Dem panic and anxiety from today — exacerbated by media pieces citing anxious D chattering class & vaguely sourced stories of internal polling — were completely out of touch w/ the empirical reality of very steady averages across the board