Muslims make up ~9-12% of NYC

They flexed their political power for the first time in the June primary

A key reason those polls were so off was because Muslims were under-polled (difficult to get to take polls, due in part to post-9/11 wariness of giving away any personal info)

https://twitter.com/nick_garber/status/1981332873207513349

My likely voter model estimates them to make up 8% of the likely electorate (they make up 7% of registered voters).

I have not seen other pollsters release their weights of Muslim voters in NYC. They should. They are the sleeping giant of NYC electoral politics.

Now that the Adams drama is behind us, and with less than four weeks to go until early voting, I’d like to see:

1) A renewed focus on Cuomo’s handling of nursing homes during COVID & on him seeking retribution against some of the women who accused him of sexual misconduct

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1972347813444173850

2) Mamdani pressed on specifically how he would work with the state legislature & Hochul to get funding for his top priorities

3) A real debate about education policy (mayoral control, etc.)

4) The candidates answer specifically what they’d do differently than Adams on housing

*clears throat* allow me 🧵

1) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Ds (IDC) & Rs in state Sen, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who were sexually abused as kids

https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/1954570858413932763

2) He cut $65M of funding for a rental assistance program, which led to a loss of $27M in federal funds, leading to surge in NYC homelessness

3) He cut funding to the MTA and prioritized flashy projects over basic subway maintenance (plus had them bail out state-run ski resorts)

Per Yahoo/YouGov poll, a huge share of Harris voters & indies have a negative view of Dems but will vote for them in 2026:

Overall:
🔴View of Ds: -20
🔵Generic Ballot: D+7

Harris Voters:
🟢View of Ds: +41
🔵Generic Ballot: D+86

Indies:
🔴View of Ds: -39
🔵Generic Ballot: D+20 d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/2025…

🚨 🚨 A new NYC mayor general election poll from @ZenithPolls (me) & Public Progress (@amitsinghbagga) — the most comprehensive poll of the race — finds Mamdani with a commanding 28-point lead in a five-way race, and getting >50% head-to-head vs Cuomo

Let’s dive in, shall we? 🧵 Here’s the link to the topline and crosstabs (among registered voters and likely voters): docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Here’s the link to the full report: docs.google.com/presentation/d…

Before we get into the results, I want to start with what sets this poll apart from others + methodology

Ah yes HarrisX, the same pollster that had Cuomo up 52-28 in the final round over Mamdani the day before the Democratic primary.

Only a 36-point miss, so close!

https://twitter.com/polltracker2024/status/1945245506411577615

empirereportnewyork.com/fix-the-city-f…

New poll from Gallup:

30% say immigration should be reduced (down from 55% last year)

79% say immigration is a good thing for the country (all-time high) and 17% say it’s a bad thing (all-time low)

Pathways to citizenship ⬆️

Measures to deter/reverse illegal immigration ⬇️

35% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, including 21% strongly approving.

62% disapprove of his handling of immigration, including 45% strongly disapproving.

45% of independents *strongly disapprove* of how he’s handling it.

Let’s go through — one by one — 16 of the most vulnerable Republican House incumbents for 2026 that voted for this abomination of a bill that cuts Medicaid & SNAP benefits for millions of Americans, while cutting taxes for the rich.

Remember this day.

Remember these names.

🧵 **AZ-01: DAVID SCHWEIKERT**

Northeast Maricopa County

2024 House: 🔴 R+3.8
2022 House: 🔴 R+0.9

2024 Pres: 🔴 R+3.1
2020 Pres: 🔵 D+1.5

Avg Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Score, 2018-2024: 🔵 -2.7

Cook: 🟡 Toss-Up
Sabato: 🟡 Toss-Up

District Medicaid Enrollment: 19%

If this is true, barring an act of god Eric Adams has zero path to victory in November.

https://twitter.com/emilyngo/status/1938346633244160209

Adams charitably had a 40% chance of winning if it was a 1:1 race vs. Mamdani, with a coalition of Black, Jewish, moderate, conservative, uber wealthy, non-college & low income New Yorkers

But even then he needed everything to go right to have a shot

With Sliwa in, it’s Joever

If you know even a single thing about Boston politics and governance, you’d know that this is laughably false.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1938290365565419936

1) 17K new affordable housing already built or being built

2) Free bus routes in subway desert areas (Black & Brown neighborhoods)

3) New accountability standards for police

4) $50M in funding to improve apartment complexes in Jamaica Plain

👀

Per @JCColtin and @abhinanda_b, let’s take a look at New York City Democratic elected officials that called on Cuomo to resign in 2021 (in light of the sexual harassment allegations made against him) that endorsed him in 2025 — in their own words.

1) U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres
2) U.S. Rep. Greg Meeks

Let's take a trip down Demographics Avenue, shall we? (courtesy of this incredible tool from the New York Times)

Mamdani is winning majority Asian precincts by 15 points.

And not just South Asian bastions like Jackson Heights.

East Asian bastions like Sunset Park & Chinatown. Mamdani is winning majority Latino precincts by 6.5 points.

Outside of the Bronx, he cleaned up almost everywhere, including Sunset Park West & Bushwick in Brooklyn, and Corona & Woodhaven in Queens.

Here are 10 reasons to not rank Cuomo on your primary ballot, even if you have issues w/ Mamdani’s policies (🧵)

1) NY’s AG found that he sexually harassed 11 women

2) NY’s AG found that he understated the toll of COVID-19-related deaths in state nursing homes by as much as 83% 3) He empowered a power-sharing arrangement between moderate Dems (IDC) & Republicans in the state Senate, which prevented NY from codifying abortion rights, enacting stronger gun control & expanding legal recourse available to people who say they were sexually abused as children

It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size

But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers) The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.

That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).

For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46

Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. We really didn’t deserve Lina

Ladies and gentlemen, your initial 2026 House battleground districts Tier two races (could become competitive under the right circumstances)

I guess we shouldn’t have passed the Affordable Care Act then, since a majority opposed it at the time.

i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/image… x.com/jonfavs/status… Lest we forget that the ensuing electoral shellacking Democrats took in 2010 led to President Romney two years later.

Based on race calls from AP & DDHQ (plus a candidate concession), here’s where the House stands:

🔴 Republican: 216 (+2 tilting R)
🔵 Democrats: 209 (+4 tilting D)

Ds need an inside straight

Let’s go district by district for the 10 races that are still too close to call:

🧵 #AKAL

No update, with Begich (R) leading Peltola (D) by just over 10K votes (or 4.1 pts) with 76% reporting.

A lot of the remaining vote appears to be from rural areas, which should help Peltola given its high Alaska Native population.

Probably Tilt R but a lot left to count

When you see results starting to come in tomorrow night (& beyond) context is everything

Sometimes mail and/or early ballots are counted first (more D), then Election Day ballots are counted (more R) — causing a “blue mirage”

Sometimes there’s a red mirage

Here’s a guide:

🧵 Sources:

NBC News
nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-k…

Bookmark both of these (FiveThirtyEight’s breaks down all 50 states, which will be helpful for downballot races)

We had a flurry of new polls in PA today that net out to an effective tie.

Those who know me well know I’m not much of an optimist.

But gather ‘round the campfire. Let me explain why I’m bullish on Harris in PA — and it has nothing to do with polls or early/mail voting.

🧵 Let’s start with what happened in 2020.

In its highest turnout election since 1992 (76.5%) — due largely to COVID/mail voting — Biden beat Trump by 1.2 points (50.0 - 48.8), or 80,555 votes.

He racked up huge margins in Philly and its suburbs & Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh).