Thread by @joni_askola

1/7 Most people both underestimate and overestimate Russia at the same time.

It is fragile yet strong. Losing in Ukraine does not make it harmless.

Here is why Russia remains a serious threat until it is properly defeated

2/7 Russia has always been hard to understand for analysts living far away from it.

It can lose the war in Ukraine and still be dangerous for Europe.

It is weaker than many think but also stronger in ways that matter

3/7 Putin’s Russia is failing to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine. That means it is losing the war.

Its weaknesses are real and numerous. But ignoring its strengths would be a mistake.

Map: @TheStudyofWar

4/7 Russia excels at drone warfare, among the best in the world alongside Ukraine. It has both quality and quantity on that.

Any Western country would struggle for 6–12 months before catching up.

That is a long time for bad things to happen

5/7 It is also highly effective at hybrid warfare and propaganda.

Thanks to authoritarian control and an indoctrinated population, Russia can absorb massive losses and focus fully on war in ways democracies cannot

6/7 Its population tolerates poor governance and hardship, making Russia resilient to economic and demographic shocks.

This combination keeps it dangerous even as it bleeds on the battlefield

7/7 Russia will not stop being a threat until it is beaten in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s heroic defense exposes Russia’s limits, but few countries could do what Ukraine has done.

Europe must act now: increase aid and seize Russian frozen assets