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Baby Boom II https://t.co/yHjmcR0aOY

Dec 20, 2025, 6 tweets

Brief thread on the history of European homicide. Stylized summary: unadjusted homicide rates fell for centuries until around 1960, then rose until around 1990, then fell again. This does not account for population aging or improved medical care.

In tabular form. Mid-century Europe, like modern Japan or Singapore, was approximately homicide-free, with a much younger population and far less surveillance and money.

Regional trends. Northern and Western Europe had low homicide as far back as 1840, but fringe Europe was much higher. They converged at similar extremely low levels mid-century.

Here is the year of the nadir and peak homicide rates. On average, Euro homicide rates bottomed out in 1960 and peaked in 1992 at almost 3 times higher (not adjusting for medical tech or aging).

We have age and sex data for England, and we can see this increase as driven by young men killing each other, especially young male strangers. As @jonatanpallesen often points out, stranger attacks are worse in many ways than domestic violence for eg public space.

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