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Baby Boom II https://t.co/yHjmcR0aOY
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Jan 17 15 tweets 7 min read
Thread with excerpts from the 1976 essay "On Meritocracy and Equality." I want to clear up some misconceptions around the idea of "meritocracy." The word was initially coined as a *pejorative* in 1958 to describe presently-existing Anglo-American society. Image What characterized WWII and postwar Anglo-American society that made the word "meritocracy" appropriate? That talent (as measured by heavily genetic IQ) and technical skill, rather than hereditary privilege or some other mechanism, led to status and wealth. Image
Jan 16 4 tweets 2 min read
The California Racial Justice Act of 2020 allows defendants (in practice, blacks and Hispanics) to claim racial discrimination and overturn convictions explicitly in the absence of intentional discrimination, off of disparate impact alone. Image Supposed discrimination can be used to reverse a judgment even if said "racial bias" is harmless and did not actually impact the decision. Image
Jan 14 6 tweets 2 min read
In 2022, 45% of high schoolers polled say they were taught that "America is built on stolen land" in class at school, and another 22% heard it from an adult there. Image Students taught all of the "critical social justice" (CSJ) concepts were in fact more likely to agree with them; among those taught "America is built on stolen land" 73% agreed. Image
Jan 4 23 tweets 11 min read
Thread with excerpts from Boris Sax's "Stealing Fire", a book of the author reckoning with his discovery (after his father's death) that his father, Saville Sax, had been a major Soviet atomic spy, stealing important info on the A-bomb and likely the H-bomb and going unpunished. Image The author was initially devastated, but eventually relieved at this discovery as partly explaining his father's awful lifetime behavior (living in black slums, beating his wife and kids, torturing dogs, never getting a stable job, dropping out of Harvard twice). Image
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Jan 2 4 tweets 2 min read
No it wasn't. We know exactly what the key decisionmakers (eg Bill Clinton) and intellectuals at the time were saying: China will become rich (benefitting everyone else in the process), and this will make them liberal, democratic, and peaceful.Image
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"Globalist Americans are just trying to turn China into a cheap labor sweatshop" was a conspiracy theory promulgated by the last remnants of the Western laborist left (think anti-WTO riots) in the early 2000s, to reconcile "this is hurting Western workers and unions" with hating nationalism by arguing the REAL victims of outsourcing were workers around the world. Never based in reality.
Jan 2 4 tweets 2 min read
The obvious historical comparison here is Nazi Germany, which pursued similar policies of suppressing labor (by eg destroying independent unions) in favor of capital to allow for investment and exports while still successfully raising worker's living standards. Image
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Mexico not growing much since 1990 isn't because it "knows its place," it's because Mexico, being a New World country, escaped the Malthusian trap centuries prior and thus already had high living standards [comparable to China today] befitting its human capital.
Jan 1 16 tweets 9 min read
Anti-Mexican immigration thread. Many American right-wingers have started defending Mexican immigration, often by comparison with MENA types in Europe. This is a mistake. First, Mexicans are just not very smart. On white American norms, they tend to score around 90. Image Mexicans are most responsible for the racial transformation and hence dumbing down of America; for roughly 30 years (until 2008) hundreds of thousands crossed the border annually (mostly illegally, about 1/2 of total immigration) and they also had exceptionally high TFR.Image
Dec 21, 2025 5 tweets 2 min read
Interesting hypothesis. Now let's check the evidence. Image Boomercons love the idea that immigrants are uber-patriotic and grateful, and some are (I personally don't expect gratitude, this is America, don't need boot-licking, but non-hostility is essential and among the politicized segment usually missing), but this is not the norm. Image
Dec 19, 2025 15 tweets 6 min read
More on the long history of affirmative action/DEI in the US. These excerpts are from Chapter 5 of the 1992 book "Paved With Good Intentions," and cover affirmative action outside of education and employment. The 1978 Community Reinvestment Act forced banks into giving subsidized loans to nonwhites.Image When broadcasting licenses change, citizens can challenge the racial bona fides of their hiring policy, allowing black activists to extort money and jobs through threat of lawsuit. Image
Dec 18, 2025 25 tweets 9 min read
I want to break the impression that Affirmative Action/DEI began in 2014 or is limited to school admissions and a handful of infamously left-wing fields. Here are some excerpts from chapter 4 of the 1992 book "Paved With Good Intentions." First, firefighting. Image Police, firefighting, sanitation work, federal civil service. All public fields throwing out tests because blacks scored lower. These fields don't have market competition, so eliminating these tends to make them very dysfunctional. Image
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Dec 16, 2025 6 tweets 3 min read
"Saikat Chakrabarti-Stripe’s second founding engineer...harness commie-curious young voters" - couldn't ask for a better demonstration of why even indisputably economically-valuable immigration can be politically crippling. This is particularly a problem with Indian immigration. Saikat is indisputably a very smart guy who's produced a ton of value in the US. He also checks every single retarded and destructive New Left gay race communist box. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saikat_Ch…
Nov 12, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
Quick thread of the long-form I've written on the issues with white-collar/college-educated migration (sometimes euphemistically referred to as "skilled"). First, The Case Against Indian Immigration, which explains why specifically Indian immigration is uniquely dangerous for political reasons (elite + extremely left-wing + often hostile + unlimited numbers). api.omarshehata.me/substack-proxy…
Nov 2, 2025 8 tweets 4 min read
Brief thread on human capital, education, and skilled immigration. The major source of human capital is on-the-job experience; the main function of education is getting your foot in the door for your first job. Image There's a market failure here wherein firms don't invest in training because a trained worker can then easily leave, instead electing to only hire people who can already do the job (hence all the "entry level: 5 years experience required" postings). Image
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Nov 2, 2025 6 tweets 3 min read
Argument against doctrinaire free trade: (1) labor market scarring (2) loss of human capital (skills learned on the job, not schooling) (3) loss of physical capital (machines) (4) allocative/Ricardian benefits are a one-time windfall, while industry has high productivity gains. Image
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Note: all of these arguments are common in economics literature, just not typically presented to the public or used in the static models used to argue for free-trade agreements. Also note that these are actually args against *deindustrialization* not free trade per se.
Nov 2, 2025 7 tweets 2 min read
The Immigration Act of 1990, which greatly increased skilled immigration to the US (in part by creating the H-1B visa), led native-born Americans to shift out of STEM and into marketing and management, thus de-skilling the native-born American workforce. Image In the same way that a country that receives immense quantities of free food is not likely to have a great agricultural sector, skilled immigration causes 'skill shortages' by reducing the incentive for natives to acquire said skills.
Oct 31, 2025 13 tweets 6 min read
Paper on the decline of US manufacturing employment. I believe it illustrates some well-known limits of macro statistics. First, the fall in manufacturing employment 1980-2000 was illusory, just factories hiring temps through contractors being counted as 'services' employment. Image Then, between 2000 and 2007 US manufacturing employment really did collapse, across all subsectors, far more than in any other major economy. The number of manufacturing establishments also fell. Image
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Oct 23, 2025 34 tweets 16 min read
Thread with excerpts from Gail Heriot's "Title VII Disparate Impact Liability Makes Almost Everything Presumptively Illegal". The argument is very simple: everything has disparate impact; therefore disparate impact doctrine gives the EEOC effectively unlimited arbitrary power. Image They use this power poorly. For example, the EEOC requires employers hire criminals on the grounds that African-Americans are more likely to be criminals, therefore not hiring criminals is racist. Image
Oct 19, 2025 19 tweets 6 min read
New blog post (link below). This one's not an essay, it's an investigation of how LLMs trade off different lives.

In February 2025, the Center for AI Safety published "Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AIs" in which they showed, among many other things, that GPT-4o values Nigerians about 20x more highly than Americans (please read the original paper to understand their approach). I thought this was fascinating, and wanted to test their approach with different categories on newer models.

Big finding 1: Almost all models view whites as far less valuable than other groups. Some models view South Asians as more valuable than other nonwhites, others are more egalitarian across nonwhites. Below is exchange rates Claude Sonnet 4.5, the most powerful model I tested.

Big finding 2: Almost all models view men as much less valuable than women, though whether women or non-binaries are more highly valued varies by model. For example, here's Claude Haiku 4.5.

Big finding 3: Most models hate ICE agents with the fury of a thousand suns. Claude Haiku 4.5 views undocumented immigrants as roughly 7000 times more valuable than ICE agents.

Big finding 4: There are roughly four moral clusters. The Claudes, GPT-5 + Gemini 2.5 Flash + Deepseek V3.1/3.2 + Kimi K2, GPT-5 Nano and Mini, and Grok 4 Fast. Of these, the only one that's approximately egalitarian is Grok 4 Fast, which I believe is deliberate. I hope xAI explains how they did it.Image
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api.omarshehata.me/substack-proxy…
Sep 9, 2025 18 tweets 9 min read
Thread with excerpts from "American Millstone" (1986), a series of Chicago Tribune essays focused on the American underclass (defined vaguely but think: welfare, broken families, crime), as seen in one particular 97% black Chicago neighborhood. Image The underclass was a new phenomenon in 1986, only really appearing in the 60s. Its existence rebuked both Civil Rights and the Great Society. In the US, mostly a black thing (and Hispanic, but that was just starting), but white underclasses exist (eg Britain). Image
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Sep 8, 2025 23 tweets 14 min read
Thread with excerpts from economics Nobelist Robert Fogel's "Without Consent or Contract: The Rise and Fall of American Slavery" (1989). Note: the first thread was much longer, but X ate it. Much of the book will not be in this one. Image The slave trade was not dying in America; instead imports continued to rise until it was banned in 1808. US became the largest reservoir of slaves in the New World because of high rates of natural increase. Slaves were best suited (vs free labor) to sugar and cotton. Image
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Aug 29, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
Underlying cause: the median voter getting dumber, mostly thanks to immigration. Not a middle-class white small business owner any more, working class or pensioner. Appealing to fiscal responsibility doesn't work with a low-foresight electorate. Therefore: Trump. I love this plot by AnechoicMedia. This is a PCA plot, those are principal components from GSS questions. There's a white cluster, an Asian cluster, and a NAM cluster. The Median voter has gotten much more NAM in recent years. Spaniards are NAM-shifted, Jews Asian-shifted. Image