1/9 Putin’s Russia has no plan in Ukraine.
After nearly 4 years of full-scale war, Russia is strategically losing but cannot afford to stop because stopping locks in defeat.
Fake stories about “strikes on Putin’s residence” show how desperate Moscow is
2/9 Russia launched this war to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine.
In plain terms that means regime change, a puppet government, a new constitution, and Russian troops turning Ukraine into a satellite state.
Today Russia is further from that goal than in 2022. How pathetic!
3/9 In March 2022 Russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine and fought near Kyiv.
Today after 4 years, over a million casualties, mobilization, and help from allies including North Korean troops, Russia holds about 20%.
That is a miserable failure.
Map: @TheStudyofWar
4/9 Russia still controls 0/23 regional capital and special-status cities Ukraine held before the invasion.
Zero!
Four years of full-scale war, over a million Russian casualties, endless propaganda, and billions spent and Putin is far from achieving his strategic objectives
5/9 Had anyone in March 2022 been told Russia would be stuck like this almost 4 years later we would call it a crushing defeat for Moscow and a stunning success for Ukraine.
That is exactly what it is
6/9 Russia’s economy is hurting. The war effort is unsustainable long term.
But stopping now would lock in defeat, even if Trump tried to give Putin an unfairly favorable deal.
Russia cannot win enough to make peace look like victory
7/9 Because of all that, Putin clings to lies about imaginary strikes and plays for time hoping Ukraine collapses. It will not.
Russia can keep grinding for villages in the Donbas but it will never achieve its strategic goals.
This war ends in a Russian strategic defeat
8/9 Putin has turned war into a cult.
WWII myths and the “special military operation” are treated like religion.
He cannot afford to lose so he keeps sacrificing lives for tiny gains.
Russia is bleeding for nothing
9/9 Europe must do more to help Ukraine. This is existential.
The fastest way to end this war is to help Ukraine scale up its production of drones and missiles.
Since this fall long-range hits matter more than ground advances. More support now means a quicker Russian defeat
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