Thread by @RealAirPower1

In the early 1990s, both India and China were looking to modernize their air forces. In a twist of history, they both chose Russia's most capable (and available) Sukhoi Flanker as their starting point. However, from there, their journeys split. India focused on getting the best possible modern jet for its air force; China focused on learning how to build its own. Thirty years on, one is still a customer, the other is a peer competitor. This is how the Flanker shaped, or could have shaped, two nations' aviation industries 🧵 1/6

India’s Su-30MKI is a marvel of integration, blending a Russian frame with French, Israeli, and Indian tech. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), India's premier aerospace company, did a fantastic job achieving over 60% indigenous content by value. However, the aircraft's "design authority" remained in Moscow. Yes, India owns the assembly, but Russia still owns the DNA, and they’ve used that leverage to limit India’s ability to evolve the airframe into a new domestic platform. 2/6

China's Shenyang J-11 program, on the other hand, was a masterclass in aggressive indigenization. They didn't just assemble Su-27s from kits; they "sinicized" them. They set up parallel facilities to develop tech that eventually replaced Russian components, including airframe, radar, avionics, and source codes. Most importantly, they swapped Russia's AL-31 engine for the indigenous WS-10. In other words, they broke the proverbial umbilical cord and turned a licensed product into an independent design lineage. 3/6

The result? China’s venture spawned a whole new family of Flankers (J-11B, J-15 carrier borne, J-16). Some now arguably outclass the latest Russian Flanker models. Meanwhile, despite HAL producing nearly 150 MKIs in India, it couldn’t produce a single Flanker derivative. We can argue why this wasn’t done until the cows come home, but the fact remains: while India considered the Flanker as an end product, China used it as a stepping stone, a PhD in fighter design. 4/6

Today, China has graduated from the Flanker to flight testing sixth-generation tailless demonstrators (J-36/J-50) and mass-producing the J-20 stealth fighter. India, despite the Su-30MKI’s tactical success, is still negotiating multibillion-dollar deals for 114 more foreign jets (MRFA) to plug critical qualitative and, sadly, quantitative gaps. Meanwhile, the industrial gap between China and India has become as wide as the Indian Ocean. 5/6

Can India learn from China and pull a "J-11" on the Dassault Rafale? Highly, highly unlikely. Unlike the 90s Sukhoi, the Rafale is an exceptionally complex piece of kit. Even if India secures API-level access in the new MRFA deal, the core brain and design muscle remain French. China "hacked" the Flanker because they went rogue and had a domestic engine to back it up. India is too bureaucratic, lacks the legal appetite and the propulsion tech. So, for now #avgeeks, India will remain the world's best operator of other countries' best aircraft, but not its best creator. 6/6