Thread by @MattGlassman312

THE “TALKING FILIBUSTER.” PART 2 of 2 🧵

PART 1 here:

Since around 2010, the minority has essentially filibsutered everything. Then they either negotiate to a UC agreement, or force the majority to try to get to 60 votes for cloture  to end debate. Almost nothing passes anymore by majority, without a UC agreement.

But it still can! If debate ends naturally or you can break a talking filibuster, you can still pass legislation with less than 60 votes. Has always been true.

Trying to wait people out and break a talking filibuster is near impossible. Getting a UC time agreement on strong party priorities is hard. And so the leaders have resorted to starting the process by filing cloture petitions before anyone debates.

As soon as the motion to proceed is made, the majority leader files for cloture. They then try to negotiate off the floor to get to 60 votes, and do other stuff on the floor while the petition ripens (2 days). If the they the 60 votes, they do the same thing with bill.

This results in a situation where no one actually filibusters by talking. Which is totally bizarre, but in some ways is a reflection that the filibuster has always been about raising the costs for the majority rather than principled debate.

The current system helps both sides in some sense: the majority can do other things and use the floor while it works on getting to 60, the minority doesn’t have to stand and talk. Nobody has to be up all night. Also good for lazy Senators.

Talking filibusters now are usually reserved for spectacles, either by Big Mad individuals, or parties that want to highlight minority recalcitrance. And they are rare. But the minority can do it, and the majority can force them to—nothing is stopping either side!

Now, many people want to change the Senate rules. This is beyond the scope of this thread, but a few words. First, that’s also by majority in the Senate, but is also debatable. And rules changes have a cloture threshold of 67 votes.

There is also the so-called nuclear option, where bare majorities can set precedents and back-door change the rules. This is how the cloture threshold was lowered on nominations in 2013 and 2017.

Some people in both parties would like to change the filibuster rules on legislation, either by abolishing it or making a talking filibsuter tougher on the minority. Either could be accomplished by rule changer or nuclear option.

Right now, the votes aren’t there. And that is the final word. The Senate rules aren’t magic, and if you don’t have 50 votes, you really can’t do anything, no matter how hard you wish you could.