A German wargame claims Russia could break NATO with just 15,000 troops — by exploiting hesitation.
Ben Hodges for Telegraph: A small Russian force could break NATO due to Western paralysis. The core fix is Ukraine. 1/
The scenario: Oct 2026. Russia stages a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad, moves into the Suwałki Corridor, seizes Marijampolė.
US stays out. Poland mobilises but hesitates. Germany dithers. Baltics get cut off. NATO credibility collapses — on paper. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine stopped a far stronger Russian army in 2022. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is the strongest deterrent — it destroys the myth that Russia can win against NATO-level forces. 3/
The real vulnerability is grey-zone paralysis.
Russia probes with ambiguity. NATO hesitates to respond. That signals weakness. Cyber, transport, energy, finance networks must be defended — and offensive cyber must be ready. 4/
Europe alone has 150 F-35s. Russia has only a handful of Su-57s. NATO ISR and air dominance dwarf Russia’s — and airpower is what hesitant governments use first. 5/
Any Suwałki move should trigger immediate cyber strikes on Russian oil and gas, a shutdown of Baltic shipping, and neutralisation of Kaliningrad bases — no ground invasion needed. 6/
Russia wins only if Europe freezes.
Baltics must prepare to hold alone for 2 weeks. Total defense models matter. Sweden and Finland turned the Baltic into a NATO lake. Speed, clarity, and action — decide outcomes. 7X
Source: telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/0…
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