Thread by @INArteCarloDoss

I despise the mollah regime, but killing Khamenei was a miscalculation, typical FAFO move. He was the highest living Chiite religious figure, killing him is akin to eliminating the pope or the Dalai Llama. This is not how you creat the conditions for a popular uprising.
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And unsurprisingly the new IRGC head Vahidi is a hardened blood thirsty radical, makes the previous eliminated commander Pakpour look like Mother Theresa in comparison. True Larijani is pragmatic and he is now central to how things move forward, but killing the highest cleric
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does not create favorable conditions for an uprising. This is a time of national mourning and solidarity for Iranians. It also makes immediate compromise less palatable. And it achieves exactly nothing as succession was planned and he was 86, so was almost there anyway
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This seems like a textbook Diderot effect syndrome. Drunk on his Venezuela hubris, Trump took an unnecessary risk by eliminating the devil he knew and has danced with opening up a Pandora box full of potential blowback risks
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from uncontrolled freight disruption to a gas supply shock to the structural destruction of critical ME generation and refining infrastructure to a prolonged period of instability in the whole region and above all to a worldwide Chiite radicalism quest for revenge.
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