Thread by @guy_laron

1. Is Trump planning to "Venezuelize" Iran? This analysis deviates from the mainstream media portrayal of a fickle, senile, or Bibi-led president. It assumes Trump is evil but rational. A thread. 🧵

2. What is Kharg Island, & why does it matter? A tiny strip of land, half the size of Manhattan, nestled in the northern Persian Gulf, one hour by boat from the Iranian shore. Gazelles roam next to oil terminals through which Iran exports 90% of its crude. geographical.co.uk/news/kharg-isl…

3. Iran's pre-war signal: Before the war, as American forces massed across the region, Iran did something revealing: it ramped up Kharg exports from 1.5 million barrels of oil a day to 4 million — near record levels. eenews.net/articles/the-o…

4. That means that the Iranians read Trump differently than the Western media does. They don't think he's after regime change or democracy. They think he's after oil.

5. They may be right. NBC reported that Trump outlined to aides his vision for post-war Iran: "a new Iranian regime cooperates on oil production similar to how the U.S. and Venezuela are." The Venezuela template - out of Trump's own mouth nbcnews.com/politics/white…

6. AEI's Michael Rubin, a former advisor to the George w. Bush admin, who is in direct contact with Trump's advisors, is pushing the same logic. Referring to the Revolutionary Guards, he said: "If they can't sell their own oil, they can't make payroll." eenews.net/articles/the-o…

7. Meaning that if the U.S. seizes Kharg, it doesn't need regime change. It directly controls Iran's most importnat source of income.

8. Everything the U.S. and Israel have done so far fits this strategy. First, "Decapitate and Delegate." That was Israel's role. Khamenei killed. The Iranian leadership is in disarray. wsj.com/politics/natio…

9. Now: to whom do you delegate? The answer isn't clear yet — so the U.S. is reportedly encouraging Kurdish rebellion in the north of the country, forcing Iran to send forces upward and thin out defenses in the south, where Kharg is. nytimes.com/2026/03/04/us/…

10. Meanwhile, the U.S. has systematically destroyed the Iranian navy — operations reaching as far as Sri Lanka, where an Iranian warship was intercepted. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

11. Southern Iran is being pummeled. These aren't random. They are clearing the operational space for a naval seizure of Kharg.

12. @ianbremmer captures the military logic precisely: "The [Kharg] island isn't extensively fortified, and sits isolated enough that US destroyers could establish a credible defensive perimeter well offshore." gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer…

@ianbremmer 13. The U.S. is also preparing to escort tanker convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and seeking financial mechanisms to insure ships after Lloyd's pulled out. These services aren't free. In practice, the U.S. would control the straits, the jugular of global energy trade.

@ianbremmer 14. China can't respond militarily. It prepared its navy to defend the Strait of Malacca, its other vulnerability. Approximately 80% of China's imported crude oil and nearly two-thirds of its total maritime trade pass through the Strait of Malacca.

@ianbremmer 15. Having the U.S. control the Persian Gulf from which China imports roughly half its crude and a third of its gas is a strategic catastrophe for Beijing. bbc.com/news/articles/…

@ianbremmer 16. The alternative? Deeper dependence on Russian energy, practically natural gas from Siberia. Which is exactly what Beijing loathes. It does not want to be dependent on the transactional Putin. csis.org/analysis/how-p…

@ianbremmer 17. Step back: Greenland. Panama. Venezuela. Now the Persian Gulf. thehill.com/opinion/intern…

@ianbremmer 18. Trump isn't leading the world through alliances and institutions. He's seizing the nodes: the chokepoints and resource pools that make the world - and AI - run. Whether it works or not, this is a coherent imperial strategy. thehill.com/opinion/energy…