1/ Analysis based on these facts: 15 days ago Putin faced multiple existential threats of CB default, economic collapse, & threat of command mutiny/coup.
2/ US intel assessment based on these facts likely would have raised the possibility of a rapid disintegration of
3/ Putin’s control and raised a specter of Russia’s nuclear, biological & chemical stockpiles being disbursed during the collapse much
4/ like the concerns that arose with the collapse of USSR leading to the rushed Budapest Memorandum, but occurring much more rapidly and unpredictably.
5/ In that context, the Trump NatSec command that is centered around Trump’s and Netanyahu’s deep Putin influence needed to give
6/ Russia relief but without the ability to do it though measured US political process, chose to create a rapid oil price increase and give cover to
7/ relieving Russian sanctions. Now, the impact of the war is threatening to push the global economy into a massive recession due to the requirement that wells
8/ be taken off line due to the inability to store or ship current oil production. They have very few days to get the oil moving.
9/ With Iran’s defenses destroyed, its leadership impaired, its economy in ruin, the concept of an insurgency operated under our clandestine service
10/ could have support sufficient to put it in motion. But in the short term the strait must reopen or the results would risk a global economic disaster.
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