Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Amherst Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. Jin Jiyan Azadî
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Dec 9 6 tweets 2 min read
1. There is good cause to be concerned that the pro-Moscow MAGA wing of the @HouseGOP will give Putin what he needs in Ukraine, but it would be wrong to assume that Ukraine is losing momentum. I've been reporting on this war for 9 years. 2. Ukraine is shaping. Destroying Russia's front-line units & equipment while not incurring unacceptable losses. We have still not seen many Ukrainian fighters of the age of our Vietnam war forces. It's mostly the hardened veterans of the long frozen war:
Dec 7 4 tweets 1 min read
1. The evidence suggests Netanyahu and perhaps others had some role in the the success of the attack. I think he and his extremists believed the attack would be less horrific and wanted it to be the basis for ethnic cleansing but the person he was dealing with tricked him. 2. Putin would always be my first choice for the person who has sufficient control over Netanyahu to be able to manipulate him after years of Kompromat derived from Netanyahu's corruption. Also, the IDF lacks competence and will for the urban warfare methods that are needed
Dec 3 11 tweets 3 min read
1. What I think is coming: An indictment that should charge Trump, Flynn, Giuliani, Perry, MTG, Jordan, Clark, Gaetz, Byrne and Russian intel officer[s] with seditious conspiracy, insurrection and/or levying war treason requiring pre-trial confinement. 2. Govt witnesses will be low-level conspirators recently charged and others who likely have secret plea deals like Epps, Meadows & Stone. Lee, Cruz & Tuberville could be charged but likely just unnamed co-conspirators. Case made on electronic evidence & corroborating testimony.
Nov 27 6 tweets 2 min read
1. Hasn't the time finally come for Turkey to be expelled from NATO? Can the US continue to pretend that Turkey is not threat to US national security? What will it take? The Houthis just attacked our destroyer. Their war capability should be teed up for destruction. 2. Houthis don't act without Iran's blessing. We need to make both the Houthis and Iran regret it. Destruction of the Iranian war making industrial base in particular its drone capacity would the perfect gift for Putin who has lost any ability to influence terrorist Iran.
Nov 26 9 tweets 3 min read
1. Sounding like a broken record, I've been impatiently awaiting the final act in Trump's war on the US to unfold with the mother-of-all indictments. There are reports Giuliani's associates Andril #Derkach & Alexander #Dubinsky who wrote to Sen Graham 12/19/2019 were charged with Image 2. treason in Ukraine for efforts to create false charges against Joe Biden. Why now? I recall when Merrick Garland went to Kyiv, March 3, 2023. The story was he was there for war crimes and I have no doubt he was, meeting with the international prosecutors. Image
Nov 25 5 tweets 1 min read
1. I read the opening brief filed in Colorado on the Trump insurrection disqualification. I'm not clear if these arguments and evidence were raised below but the historical record that the brief presented and that I was not able to piece-together when I analyzed the issues 2. makes fairly clear that the term "Officer of the United States" includes POTUS and there is precedent and authority for support of that interpretation. Therefore, I conclude that even a Conservative SCOTUS may struggle to save Donald Trump's 2024 candidacy.
Nov 20 10 tweets 2 min read
1. Here's a reason why anyone who wants to get rid of Trump as a 2024 candidate should NOT appeal the Colorado case that made two findings of note: 1)Trump engaged in an insurrection and 2)Trump was NOT an Officer of the United States. Image 2. On the latter finding, I've been saying for some time that was likely the law. I'm also quite sure that it is why he backed away from the argument that removal was proper in NY under 28 USC 1442 (Federal Officer Removal) in regard to Alvin Bragg's charges and why he didn't
Nov 15 4 tweets 2 min read
1. Three judges who will hear Trump's appeal DC Circuit appeal of Judge Chutkin's limited gag order.

Patricia Millett - Obama appointee.
Image 2. Nina Pillard - Obama appointee.
Nov 13 11 tweets 3 min read
1. The autocrats care no more for the Palestinians than they do for their own citizens who they execute for petty insults. What they fear is that Hamas will be totally wiped out. Then they will feel pressure to take a more direct role in the Jewish genocide with all its risks. Image 2. Iran & Turkey are notable. Two former empires that feel the itch of regional domination like an amputee trying to scratch a missing limb. Jordan, KSA, UAE & Egypt have to worry about the masses who will demand Israel pay a price for not be willing to be conveniently butchered.
Nov 5 5 tweets 1 min read
1. If we are dealing strictly under international law, Hamas is the de facto governing authority in Gaza and when it attacked it exposed the people who are under its control to the collateral effects of Israel's retaliation. Hamas beheaded babies. They are all going to be killed 2. or captured. No demonstration or threats will save them. If Hamas want to save Gaza and its citizens they should surrender and seek to be tried under international law for war crimes and genocide. And contrary to what the MSM apparently believes, no war was ever fought where
Nov 4 8 tweets 2 min read
1. Iran is attacking us in Syria because they are betting they can create political pressure in the US now that Putin has de facto control of the US House via his treasonous stooge @realdonaldtrump. The goal is to force the US out of Syria and #Turkey and Iran will act as 2. #Putin's proxies. The SDF rightfully wants nothing to do with alienating #Russia because of #Trump's surrender to #urkey that as of yet the Biden administration has not fully reversed. So the dilemma for #AANES and the #SDF is, can they survive without the US?
Nov 4 8 tweets 2 min read
1. The US political universe will change by July and if @TheDemocrats have solid, committed House and Senate candidates we can tee-up a landslide. Our candidates must be dedicated to democracy, public service, worker's rights, America as a leader by example and equality for all. 2. If we do it, we may witness a Congressional sea change not seen since 1932. @JoeBiden's return to a pure form of Keynesian economics that brought the 1932 landside has established the solid economic foundation for our 2024 campaigns. On social issues and National Security, the
Oct 31 5 tweets 2 min read
1. This was my Oct 28 prediction of the Israeli strategy. It was based on flight tracks of Israeli combat communication node aircraft and the obvious state of the ground in this area that is sparsely occupied. 2. Today there's a report of Israel moving to occupy the Turkish Friendship Hospital, Al Nour Resort via the Samuni area marked with green pins. Cutting through this area with less civilians can open up a Image
Oct 22 4 tweets 1 min read
1. The Special Counsel waiting to charge the members of @HouseGOP until the Speaker is sorted out is misguided. The reason they're doing this is to delay the filing of charges. It was wrong for Comey to make a political decision & it's wrong for Smith & possibly Garland to delay 2. charging because of the circus in the House. Justice demands members of a coup face charges. Just charge them & let the politics sort itself out. Knowing they have been caught may finally have coup members realize that it's over & they're facing long periods of incarceration.
Oct 22 5 tweets 1 min read
1. An interim Speaker Pro Tempore is a creation of the House Rules. The Constitution merely provides for the election of the Speaker, nothing in the Constitution says the Speaker controls the passage of legislation. That evolved with the party system that is also not mentioned in 2. the Constitution. The Rules say this interim Speaker has all "necessary and appropriate" power of the Speaker. I can't find any precedent by which to judge this debacle historically, but the plain meaning of "necessary and appropriate" could reasonably include moving critical
Oct 18 9 tweets 2 min read
1. The media allowed in Gaza are there because a terrorist group lets them be there. The first thing that @IDF has to do is credential professional war correspondents willing to report from a war zone under restrictions appropriate to a declared war. The access at Rafah needs 2. to be controlled and only accredited news orgs should have access to Gaza. This isn't reality TV, it's a bloody war and people including news correspondents and civilians will die in it. Any organization engaged in amplifying HAMAS propaganda is engaged in conduct incompatible
Oct 14 6 tweets 2 min read
1. The House rule that requires a majority of the whole number of members sworn, living and not removed to elect a Speaker essentially creates a two-party system not contemplated by the Constitution. We need to move to a plurality speaker and elect @RepJeffries or my plan B. 2. The real GOP only has about 120 members. The rest are fascist deviants and we need to start saying it and making it heard every time their names come up. Starting with Trump, the head of the fascist deviant party. What we are seeing is a coalition of fascists deviants and GOP.
Oct 14 5 tweets 2 min read
1. I haven't seen confirmation, but there's reports of Iranian backed militias preparing to attack US forces on the Euphrates. I have said for years that Iranian road to supply Hezbollah that enters Syria at #Bāghūz, needs to be cut. I believe Turkey's attacks in the north Image 2. were a follow-on to the recent Assad regime facilitated attacks on #SDF near #DeirEzZor. This was all shaping for the #HAMAS attack and a general war against US @Coalition and #Israel that is directed by #Putin, #Erdogan, #Assad and #Iran. The reporting that Iran didn't
Oct 12 6 tweets 2 min read
Could judge Cannon's prior connection to Kash Patel be sufficient to force her disqualification. The docket appears to show as AUSA she let an undoc. Mexican national, 2nd time arrested on it in FL walk on fraudulent docs charges. IMO def possible cartel. Stipulated $250k bond. I see nothing in this docket to document what happened to 250k bail money and docket evidences defendant released for time served and not turned over to immigration less than 30 days after his arrest where he admitting his documents were fake at arrest.@DOJNatSec @JusticeOIG Image
Oct 12 7 tweets 2 min read
Trump's DC criminal case attorneys filed a short opposition to the Special Counsel's CIPA Sec. 4 motion where the Govt wants to show the judge, but not the defense, something regarding which they need a ruling is not discoverable or subject to their Brady obligation re exculpatory evidence. Trump's team is trying to figure out what they have. It's secret enough to have to be kept from the defense but likely not relevant or helpful to Trump in the DC case. I've been watching all the dockets. The SDFL looks to me to be perhaps moving to a second
Oct 11 6 tweets 2 min read
Erdogan's unhinged anti-American rants are often just ignored but in the past day or so I've begun to detect what might be an ever-so-slight change in #US policy towards #Turkey. It might be that the decision makers who have tried to never speak ill of our #NATO ally have seen the truth about who is behind the attack in #Israel and who is still a threat to start a regional war. When I read the early reports of the brutality and saw the facial features of some of the fighters, after nine years working on #ISIS it was my first thought. I called