Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Amherst Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. Jin Jiyan Azadî
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Mar 17 7 tweets 2 min read
1. Did Trump's, there will be a bloodbath if he loses, statement violate his terms of release? Was that a crime of violence? Ordinarily such a statement would not be actionable because there is no imminent threat, but when a person is released pending charges for actions 2. that led to an insurrection, does that meet the Brandenburg v. Ohio imminent threat of lawless action test? Does it even apply in a case where the defendant is on pre-trial release?

The imminent lawless action test was addressed in
Mar 13 5 tweets 1 min read
1. I've been on social media long time. I also minored in Chinese with my major focused on Chinese politics. My parents and sister left Shanghai in 1949 on a refugee ship where my dad covered the Chinese Civil War. 2. I have never touched #TiKTok because I believe it's a Chinese Communist Party intelligence service operation. FARA needs to be amended to address hostile foreign influence in our media. Propaganda can be regulated but as technology advances the manipulation of
Mar 9 4 tweets 1 min read
One thing I never do is underestimate a known fraudster. Here's the address of the surety on Trump's Supersedeas bond. Image It's 3.6 miles from Trump's Bedminster course Image
Feb 29 10 tweets 2 min read
1. I've pondered SCOTUS' cryptic order. Breaking it down, the court asks whether a former president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his/her tenure in office. 2. And if the president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to have involved official acts during his/her tenure in office, what is the extent of the immunity? My late brother investigated two former presidents for criminal acts committed while
Feb 26 5 tweets 1 min read
The reason Trump has to file bankruptcy is if he can't bond the judgments the judgment liens will likely attach soon and after 90 days will become unavoidable secured debt on his real estate junior to consensual mortgage debt but senior to Trump. The state being a judgment creditor creates an interesting dynamic because the state can also file tax liens. For instance if they think he has had Russian mob debt forgiven they could do a jeopardy assessment for unreported discharge of indebtedness income and file the liens.
Feb 25 4 tweets 1 min read
1. I looked at Trump's finances seven years ago and concluded he was likely insolvent back then. I think he's melting down because financial collapse gnaws at normal people and could consume Trump with his frail ego fed by a fictitious image of wealth that made him someone who 2. simple people will want to be near. When the reality of his fraud and imaginary empire becomes clear as it all comes tumbling down, it remains to be seen if the crowds will remain to be be around a financial failure who's coming unglued.
Feb 20 9 tweets 2 min read
1. Something about this photo bothered me, beyond the obvious. At first it was the Exit sign that looks like it's above a window. And old wood look was not Mar-a-Logo gaudy gilded gauche. Then I thought, why is Johnson there? It occupied my mind for a bit and here's my analysis. Image 2. First, the NY Post today confirmed my guess that they were at Trump's West Palm golf course today, not Mar-a-Lago. The style was all wrong. It's obvious that the Hitler Youth calendar boy didn't go there to play golf so why meet there? Of course that's where Trump was but Image
Feb 19 4 tweets 1 min read
I remain of the view that there is no stay of enforcement of the NYAG judgment other than the cancellation of the corporate registrations that was stayed by the appeals court. If I'm' right, the AG can levy execution on the stock of JGT Operations I LLC. Why would that matter? Take a guess? 😎 Image
Feb 19 7 tweets 2 min read
1. Trump's problems don't get solved when he files bankruptcy. Because he's been found to be engaged in a long-term fraud and is a defendant in numerous criminal cases, there will be a fast move to appoint a DOJ supervised trustee who will take legal title to his assets 2. and use them to operate if that can be done without jeopardizing the secured creditors' equity positions. If not, the individual assets may be abandoned to the creditors to foreclose or be sold by the trustee often in a fire sale.
Feb 18 6 tweets 2 min read
1. When trying to analyze what the massive judgment against Trump is likely to precipitate, where all the AG needs to do is record it, I look at the secured creditors like Ladder. Their mortgage loans are senior to AG's lien but this is almost certainly an event of default. 2. In bankruptcy the lenders who are being paid current would have to sit tight and wait for the case to move forward towards reorganization but in a receivership/custodianship like the NY AG proceeding the lenders are likely to want to be rid of the troubled
Feb 18 4 tweets 1 min read
1. If Musk didn't bail Trump out then I think he has to file bankruptcy or all his bank accounts could be frozen on Monday and liens can attach to all his real property. That's an event of default under any mortgage I've seen. Also, he has very bad credit so there may be 2. some control provisions in the loan covenants that would turn over any control he has to the lenders. With what amounts to a state receivership in place the only rational move is to file a bankruptcy petition that would terminate the receivership subject to the state arguing
Feb 16 5 tweets 1 min read
1. What does an old Bankruptcy lawyer think about when a creep like Trump may be facing a money judgment he can't pay or bond? Easy. "I wonder where will he file his bankruptcy petition?" Second thing is, "I wonder if state law has an automatic stay of judgment enforcement?" 2. Because Trump is a notorious scofflaw, any judgment creditor attorney who sits on the judgment creditor's rights does so at their peril. Federal judgments are now stayed for 30 days under Rule 62 but defers to the state law where the property is held regarding the imposition
Feb 12 5 tweets 2 min read
1. What are the chances that Kash Patel is on the Govt witness list? He's the source of the magic declassification defense. Judge Cannon knows him. They both were involved in a case that just from the docket looks very odd. Likely let a Mexican cartel member walk on less than 2. 30 days time served and his $250k bail posted seemed to just vanish. What are the chances that Patel never mentioned he knew her to Trump before she was nominated? How about when @LeaderMcConnell rushed to confirm her in November 2020 after Trump lost? @DOJNatSec @FBIMiamiFL Image
Feb 11 6 tweets 2 min read
1. With Trump going even more off-the-rails than usual I took a look a the DC filings. A grand jury target like Trump will be fed with attorney updates from the related grand juries and I like to look for signs of correlation with grand jury activity and Trump's rising insanity. 2. The past week started with case 24-cr-59 on 2/5 and ended 2/9 with case 24-cr-77. Only 2 were not Jan 6 and there were 5 sealed dockets and 2 missing dockets. Based on observations since Flynn and Manafort I'd predict something's coming. One case of note The last one. No. 77.
Feb 4 11 tweets 3 min read
1. What's Iran's long game? I'm certain #IRGC knew of planned Oct 7 attack. I'm not certain they knew of plan to commit a massacre of such proportions. I still believe the attack involved #Daesh likely through embedded fighters and training in #Turkey, #ISIS' safe haven. 2. The ferocity of the Israeli response that threatens to destroy #Hamas in #Gaza has put at risk the decades of #Iranian plans and preparation. #Iran fears that this may be the last chance to effect the strategy to create a massive war in the #Mideast. It's a near certainty
Jan 29 6 tweets 2 min read
1. In October 2017, the IRGC and its proxies attacked the KRG held areas in & around Kirkuk Iraq, the center of Iraq's massive oil and gas fields. Reports that Manafort had been in the area. I reported my suspicion that the action was to give Kurdish controlled fields to Rosneft Image 2. regarding which Trump reportedly held a personal financial interest. Pompeo did nothing. His conduct as CIA head was so shocking that I began to examine his past and concluded there was a strong likelihood he had been recruited by the SVR in Bavaria in late 80s. In any event,
Jan 28 5 tweets 2 min read
1. For a typical supersedeas appeal bond Trump would have to post about $120 million with the court to stay the Carroll judgment collection pending appeal. I think he worked out some deal in his first judgment that was effectively bonded by a surety but I need to confirm details. 2. With the boom about to be lowered in the NYAG case combined with the former admission that his available case was $400 million, he'll likely be bordering on insolvency. If E Jean Carroll's attorneys demand a full cash deposit in the court of $120 million and he
Jan 27 4 tweets 1 min read
1. I've been DC docket watching for years. Since Jan 17 there have been 7 sealed cases in the Art III docket and during that time there were many Jan 6 cases, not sealed, that to me evidence actions of a Jan 6 grand jury. Many sealed cases are filed because of a need to effect 2. an arrest but often they are unsealed shortly after filing. None of these cases has been unsealed. The time from Perry's phone being accessed is still short in the context of a large investigation but if it was needed mostly ti corroborate other evidence then the time
Jan 20 4 tweets 2 min read
1. My research concluded it is highly likely that they met during WWII in the South Pacific theater where these naval intelligence officers' jealous hatred of rich-boy JFK, who got all the girls, was formed. Additional member of the dramatis personae? Gerald Ford who was there. 2. After JFK was assassinated, Ford, who directed the Warren investigation, worked to pull his old war buddy out of a funk and get him to run for office. Why was Bush in a funk? Because, as a CIA plans or operations officer, he knew that members of his Operation
Jan 15 6 tweets 2 min read
1. The Constitution's grant of speech and debate immunity to members of Congress was clarified in the 14th Am were we made clear that there was no immunity for words that called for the overthrow of the Republic. Barry Loudermilk is attempting to intimidate Cassidy Hutchinson. 2. The evidence strongly suggest that Loudermilk was an active participant in planning the attack on the Capitol. He can and must be banned from office and actions should commence to remove him from Congress. The focus on elections is misplaced. The ban can remove sitting
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Jan 13 5 tweets 1 min read
1. Got up early this week to listen to DC appeals court oral argument. I posted earlier I expected a hypothetical about Trump killing someone important. So if I knew it was coming certainly John Sauer expected it. I was and remain baffled at his admission that Trump wants 2. the court to okay murdering a political rival. In an oral argument a lawyer has to be ready to establish the outer limits of the ruling. Sauer came up with the power of a dictator. Why? In some cases you might try to go to a more extreme position than the court was likely to