1. Oral argument today made me recall how curious the question presented was and how even the Court seemed to acknowledge that they were not addressing it. I missed bits and one bit I missed I just heard on MSNBC was Alito saying he didn't want to discuss the facts of the case. 2. That was astounding thing to hear an appellate judge say: facts of the case don't matter. My impression when it was over was that the liberals were not speaking as they might if the six conservatives were all onboard with the Trump dictatorship. Alito and Thomas sounded angry.

1. Trying to imagine what would be so urgent as to cause Putin to rush to the Kremlin on Sunday night. A quick survey of Russian press and I found one report that confirmed something that I had thought might happen now that the aid money and weapons are certain to come in days.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1782180293773762966

2. Ukraine had to be holding a cache of weapons for a massive Russian offensive. Things like ATACMS, HIMARS, 155 mm smart munitions, Javelins & Stingers. They would be limiting offensive operations and focused waiting to hold the line from and offensive. I think they went all in.

1. In February the KRG PM visited DC. No official meeting with @POTUS @Joebiden. At the time I wondered if the Barzani family relationship with Erdogan might have them on the outs with DC.

https://twitter.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1761766554201432432

2. This cold shoulder contrasted with the recent meeting between the US President and the Iraqi PM.

Erdogan arrives in Erbil Monday at same time he's reported to have begun attack on Northern areas of Iraqi Kurdistan in violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

c-span.org/video/?534931-…

1. Random facts occasionally haunt me. A recent report that I think I heard on MSNBC said that Trump was not spending on a Michigan ground game. That struck me as so odd it lingered in my mind while I ponder to find some way to explain it. 2. Tonight on @11thHour I think I may have heard something that may explain what Trump is planning. If this pans out, the good news is that he thinks he's going to lose and is preparing for his next grift. On @SRuhle's hour there was discussion of Trump rallies and how they

1. I find it unlikely that people like Scott Perry, who I think was part of a military coup plot, did not raise presidential immunity in the grand jury. I've watched several dockets in the DC Cir and I think at least one or two have made it to SCOTUS based on the 2. timing of sealed filings in the DC record. Could there already be a full discussion of the POTUS immunity in a sealed opinion? SCOTUS would all be aware of the case that might explain the liberals remaining quiet while the court as a whole moved the case slowly to conclusion

1.Since 2014, I have consistently expressed my belief that Russia and ISIS (nka Daesh) were connected. Today, Daesh thrives in an area of Syria that is protected from US strikes due to a US deconfliction agreement with Russia. 2. Let's watch and see if Russia does anything to disturb Daesh in this area. The reporting on the attack and the fact that AMAQ is reporting in the manner it has not previously reported is consistent with my view that Russia and Daesh are at least tacitly affiliated.

1. Bankruptcy is often used to perform the function of orderly liquidation of debtor assets to pay creditors through a process optimized to keep costs of liquidation low. Take a hotel that cannot be reorganized but needs to be sold. If a judgment creditor holding a huge 2. judgment levies execution and sell it on the courthouse steps it often gets a pittance where the sale is subject to senior liens and encumbrances. But in a bankruptcy section 11 USC 363(f) sale, the property can be marketed and, best of all, be sold free

1. The capture of the alleged ISIS-K terrorists near Belarus makes perfect sense if Putin had planned this. He would be able to control information near the attack to make sure the attackers escaped but if he gave orders far beyond Moscow to allow them to escape at the border 2. that could risk the plan being exposed. So the dutiful Russian border forces did not stand down and when they saw the something suspicious made the stop then posted it, likely to Telegram, that the Kremlin uses and thus has opened a portal that can disrupt planning.

1. When the the liens start hitting Trump assets and he's forced to sit for debtor exams the truth will emerge that the NY case has exposed, not just the instances of fraud in the allegations raised therein, but that his entire "empire" is simply a grift. I seriously doubt there 2. is more than $100m in equity once the costs of liquidation are deducted from sales proceeds. His fee burn in the litigation will eat that up in short order. I also suspect that he can't find sufficient unrestricted cash to retain a competent bankruptcy firm to try to save

1. The Trump 2023 ethics disclosure tells me he's broke. First as you can see highlighted, he unloaded a ton of commercial real estate while the market was depressed. I would doubt he got anything but workouts to walk away from the assets. We know he sold the old DC post office. 2. somebody needs to run title reports on all these assets to see if he still owns any of them. The Chicago building is perhaps why he can't put his entities in bankruptcy that I thought he would have filed by now. Without seeing the loan docs it's impossible to be sure

1. Did Trump's, there will be a bloodbath if he loses, statement violate his terms of release? Was that a crime of violence? Ordinarily such a statement would not be actionable because there is no imminent threat, but when a person is released pending charges for actions 2. that led to an insurrection, does that meet the Brandenburg v. Ohio imminent threat of lawless action test? Does it even apply in a case where the defendant is on pre-trial release?

The imminent lawless action test was addressed in

1. I've been on social media long time. I also minored in Chinese with my major focused on Chinese politics. My parents and sister left Shanghai in 1949 on a refugee ship where my dad covered the Chinese Civil War. 2. I have never touched #TiKTok because I believe it's a Chinese Communist Party intelligence service operation. FARA needs to be amended to address hostile foreign influence in our media. Propaganda can be regulated but as technology advances the manipulation of

One thing I never do is underestimate a known fraudster. Here's the address of the surety on Trump's Supersedeas bond. It's 3.6 miles from Trump's Bedminster course

1. I've pondered SCOTUS' cryptic order. Breaking it down, the court asks whether a former president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his/her tenure in office. 2. And if the president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to have involved official acts during his/her tenure in office, what is the extent of the immunity? My late brother investigated two former presidents for criminal acts committed while

The reason Trump has to file bankruptcy is if he can't bond the judgments the judgment liens will likely attach soon and after 90 days will become unavoidable secured debt on his real estate junior to consensual mortgage debt but senior to Trump. The state being a judgment creditor creates an interesting dynamic because the state can also file tax liens. For instance if they think he has had Russian mob debt forgiven they could do a jeopardy assessment for unreported discharge of indebtedness income and file the liens.

1. I looked at Trump's finances seven years ago and concluded he was likely insolvent back then. I think he's melting down because financial collapse gnaws at normal people and could consume Trump with his frail ego fed by a fictitious image of wealth that made him someone who

https://twitter.com/TimInHonolulu/status/767914924513243136

2. simple people will want to be near. When the reality of his fraud and imaginary empire becomes clear as it all comes tumbling down, it remains to be seen if the crowds will remain to be be around a financial failure who's coming unglued.

1. Something about this photo bothered me, beyond the obvious. At first it was the Exit sign that looks like it's above a window. And old wood look was not Mar-a-Logo gaudy gilded gauche. Then I thought, why is Johnson there? It occupied my mind for a bit and here's my analysis. 2. First, the NY Post today confirmed my guess that they were at Trump's West Palm golf course today, not Mar-a-Lago. The style was all wrong. It's obvious that the Hitler Youth calendar boy didn't go there to play golf so why meet there? Of course that's where Trump was but

I remain of the view that there is no stay of enforcement of the NYAG judgment other than the cancellation of the corporate registrations that was stayed by the appeals court. If I'm' right, the AG can levy execution on the stock of JGT Operations I LLC. Why would that matter? Take a guess? 😎

1. Trump's problems don't get solved when he files bankruptcy. Because he's been found to be engaged in a long-term fraud and is a defendant in numerous criminal cases, there will be a fast move to appoint a DOJ supervised trustee who will take legal title to his assets 2. and use them to operate if that can be done without jeopardizing the secured creditors' equity positions. If not, the individual assets may be abandoned to the creditors to foreclose or be sold by the trustee often in a fire sale.

1. When trying to analyze what the massive judgment against Trump is likely to precipitate, where all the AG needs to do is record it, I look at the secured creditors like Ladder. Their mortgage loans are senior to AG's lien but this is almost certainly an event of default.

https://twitter.com/market_x_files/status/1757940309588050248

2. In bankruptcy the lenders who are being paid current would have to sit tight and wait for the case to move forward towards reorganization but in a receivership/custodianship like the NY AG proceeding the lenders are likely to want to be rid of the troubled

1. If Musk didn't bail Trump out then I think he has to file bankruptcy or all his bank accounts could be frozen on Monday and liens can attach to all his real property. That's an event of default under any mortgage I've seen. Also, he has very bad credit so there may be 2. some control provisions in the loan covenants that would turn over any control he has to the lenders. With what amounts to a state receivership in place the only rational move is to file a bankruptcy petition that would terminate the receivership subject to the state arguing