Tim Hogan Profile picture
BA UMass Amherst class of 75, 76, 88 and graduated 86. Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still got Kennedy/Johnson button.
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19 Sep
1. Motivations. Trump is transactional and though he has succeeded in being elected once he shows no evidence of becoming more attuned to how politics works. He will want to make a pick and get the seat filled to show daddy what an evil little boy he is. @MaryLTrump
2. McConnell is strategic. He will want to have the issue of the pick on the ballot. It will energize both @TheDemocrats and the Fascists but he will likely conclude that that the Democrats are already enthused, and he needs to prop-up at least five Senate races.
3. The Democrats will do what we do best: Freak out & run screaming in every direction claiming the sky is falling. When we awoke yesterday the goal was winning the White House, Senate and hold the House. Nothing has changed but the urgency. Mourn the loss of a great human being.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
1. I would not advise @TheDemocrats to run on the issue of adding supreme court justices unless McConnell tries to push the nominee through before the election. The outcome of the election has several possible outcomes that might inform how the two parties may move forward.
2. If trump and McConnell confirm someone before the election, Dems work to win. Get turnout based on the threat to women and a woman on the ticket. Done right it could be a bad night for the GOP.

Assume Dems take White House Senate and House, the GOP SCOTUS majority
3.would be short lived if Dems killed the filibuster and voted to add three or more justices. McConnell knows this may be coming. He addressed it last week. But if the lame duck is looking forward to a Democratic majority, @SenSchumer can see if McConnell wants to cut a deal.
Read 6 tweets
19 Sep
1. I think it's unlike they could get a vote on a new justice before the election. It's possible but not probable. The Senate goes home Oct 12 to Nov 6. The committee could work but there's a problem. Five of the @SenateGOP on the committee are in cycle in 2020. No Dems.
2. To conduct hearings they would exchange campaigning to be front and center in contentious hearing. I think their campaign people would prefer to miss that nightmare. Four are in close races including judiciary chair @LindseyGrahamSC who would hurt his chances with hearings.
3. Like Graham, @JohnCornyn @ThomTillis and @joniernst are in tough races. @BenSasse should be safe but he may prefer to not be put on the spot. So this will be the lame duck IMO. If Trump ends up costing the four judiciary senators their seats, one wonders if they would
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
1. When I was 16, and son of an @AP war correspondent, I worked in the kitchen of a Lenox MA arts camp for teenage Jewish women from NYC. I had the rare privilege to meet & spend an evening with William L. Shirer at a cocktail party where Shirer told stories of covering Hitler. Image
2. When Trump rose, I realized that, despite that bit if history tucked into my memory, I had never read Shirer's dauntingly-large work: 'The Rise and Fall of Third Reich' and so I bought a Kindle copy that I admit I have not competed reading but use as a reference source.
3. I think I have figured out what Donald Trump's play book is. And it should frighten everyone but especially people in the Jewish community. I'm 100% certain he is following Mein Kampf. What cinched it for me was hearing him prattle on about the threat from socialists Image
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
1. 18 U.S. Code § 2383. Rebellion or insurrection

"Whoever incites . . . any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined . . . or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both;
2. and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."

18 U.S. Code § 2385.Advocating overthrow of Government:

Whoever knowingly or willfully advocates, abets, advises, or teaches the duty, necessity, desirability, or propriety of overthrowing or
3. destroying the government of the United States . . . by force or violence, or by the assassination of any officer of any such government . . .

Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both, and shall be ineligible for employment by the
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
It looks to me like Trump is driving to Reno. Why no helicopter?
This Kiowa was doing race tracts at Minden and is now tracking the freeway. Image
They are acting like they are concerned about something at Reno. I've listened to a number of AF-1 landings and take offs but this is very different.
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
1. A poll was released yesterday that put @POTUS @realDonaldTrump down to 39% compared to Biden's 49%. That looks like a lot of people were undecided. Today USC Dornsife poll has Biden 54% and Trump at 40%. Trump and Barr's extra judicial assault on the
2. rule of law through political prosecutions and telling voters to commit voter fraud is unlikely to gain Trump more support from a growing undecided group. Trump campaign strategy is bizarre. It appears to be the projection of angry vengeance of a failing wannabe tyrant.
3. How would you like to be a 2020 cycle @SenateGOP? Knowing that the guy who's driving your campaign bus just did some lines of Adderall and can't walk down a flight of stairs because he had a stroke? 52 more days for @SenMcSallyAZ @SenatorCollins @SenCoryGardner Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
My late brother John started at DOJ as Counsel to the Attorney General. I was a few years out of law school. Janet Reno had convinced me about five years earlier that I should go. Durham is toast. @maddow

Nora R. Dannehy Returns to U.S. Attorney's Office justice.gov/usao-ct/pr/nor…
As his "counsel," she has an attorney-client privilege with Durham. She is acting like an attorney with a client that has committed a crime or fraud and won't correct it. Expect she will be reporting to the OPR. ASAP. May have already. If I'm right watch Main Justice.
And fun fact: I was in the AG's galley on 4th Floor Main Justice when an @FBIWFO agent in her detail drew her pistol on me. I was holding my son. Family. 😎 @JoeBiden justice.gov/opr
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
1. The companies like @Facebook and @Twitter that are allowing a foreign adversary free reign on their sites have no long-term future IMO. Here's why. The money they are taking from the GRU is part of a criminal act in violation of FARA, Money Laundering and Bank Fraud.
2. Zuckerberg's admission he is engaged in willful blindness means that @Facebook is likely already insolvent. @jack has a very small window to make clear that Twitter will not accept any unverified foreign money for US focused political ads or I predict multidistrict
3. litigation that will destroy Twitter and force it into a liquidation. The age of post-Trump Civil RICO is approaching. Firms that have been engaged in assisting in an attack on the US have no future. The @fb_engineering who are building these weapons should be identified
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
1. If Trump talked to Xi he knew creating a panic was what we needed. This is an excuse for not raising alarm and people continue to die. Recordings link.
2. I totally misread the Chinese propaganda. I made the fatal mistake of believing what the Trump @WhiteHouse was saying that was adopted whole hog by the @cdc: That Covid19 was no big deal and that they could handle the testing in house.
3. But the news being put out by the CCP in February after the initial denials in Wuhan, were way over the top on the danger. It turns out their propaganda was effective in getting the population to panic, exactly what an extinction-level pandemic requires.
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
1. Trump's dream-team DOJ lawyers get a welcome note from SDNY Clerks.

***NOTICE TO ATTORNEY REGARDING DEFICIENT PLEADING. Notice to Attorney Stephen Terrell to RE-FILE Document No. [1] Notice of Removal,. The filing is deficient for the following reason(s): As per Rule 13.3 . .
2. Trump draws a Clinton appointee as the Article III judge. Honorable Lewis A. Kaplan. Staten Island native and Harvard law school grad. Took Senior status in 2011.
3. I think I'm on the right track that the outrageous move to have the US taxpayers pay for Trump for calling a rape victim a liar. He wasn't paying his attorneys. Docket tells the tale. It appears by July they likely told Trump they were going to withdraw. Note this document and Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
1. Why is Trump pretending to have a $100 million? Sure to fleece some consumer donors now that the grownups have all moved on, but Trump is also in middle of the second biggest business transaction of his life in the NYC Supreme Court. He's got no place to hide and @TishJames
2. holds the high ground. I think that may be the actual deal that Trump is playing with his $100 million bluff today. IMO it's almost a certainty Trump Org takes a hit in a massive tax assessment plus criminal enhancements. If the collection is in jeopardy, taxing authorities
3. can move to secure their position by filing a notice of tax lien and intent to levy. That effectively ends the ability to borrow and often the debtor's lawyers file the Bankruptcy before the lien attaches. This case would be extremely complicated because the IRS usually takes
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
Why are Florida's Cuban voters supporting @POTUS @realDonaldTrump's corruption? Remember, @marcorubio took Russian money in 2016. Is it possible they're not who we thought they were. @FBIMiamiFL
When I was a kid Batista was dictator and corrupt puppet. A lot of the Cubans in Miami hale from his crew. Cuba like most if not all the Spanish colonies was a stratified society formed in a hacienda system. What is seldom spoken of is the stratification within these systems
based on skin color. From the Philippines to the Caribbean whiter people tended to dominate the Spanish ruling class. The European church remained silent.

The Irish used to not be white. But we're pretty white now and can easily blend in. A couple of months ago
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
1. Trump says his campaign is fine but then says he's thinking about putting a $100 million in. This is not consistent. So I conclude @POTUS @RealDonaldTrump is confirming his campaign is broke. But he's also broke personally IMO. So where will the money come from?
2. On June 9, 2016, Trump held an all hands emergency meeting at the Four Season Hotel in NYC because his campaign was broke. Here is Trump surrogate coming out of the meeting. @nytimes ran the story.
3. Paul Manafort left the meeting and met with the Russians who had said they were ready to provide additional help to Trump. What was the help they were providing? Money. The @USTreasury #FinCEN spotted it after the meeting. From the Natalie Edwards criminal complaint.
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
1. I think Trump and his campaign are both broke. FEC filings should be in about a week. I think we may see Trump is short paying vendors. The big one in his filings is American Made Media Consultants, LLC. I don't know anything about them so I would not be surprised if that's
2. a Trump family related entity but they are by far the largest recipient of disbursements in the July 31 filing. Then Ace Specialties and Amex. We always believe everything Trump says when logic would say that is unwise. What if the reason he pulled his ads was because he was
3. put on cash & carry by the vendors? Here is an article about that big vendor. Says it's an @NRA front.

Trump Campaign Used Shell Companies For Ad Buys - pymnts.com/news/security-…
Read 7 tweets
6 Sep
1. Why I think this @WSJ article is propaganda. First, the tip off: It's free. No paywall. @rupertmurdoch wants all the US mice to eat some free cheese. 😎
2. I started raising the alarm on testing in January, days before the events in the WSJ report started. None of it made sense then and makes no sense in retrospect.
3. I remain near-certain, Trump had some plan to cashin on from testing. But the real fraud in the WSJ story is that it doesn't even attempt to explain why CDC blew off PCR testing that was working in Wuhan and blew off the test that the Germans gave to WHO. Why?
Read 7 tweets
5 Sep
1. Checked my timeline for November 7-11, 2018. Here is @davidfrum reporting that the trip was unnecessary and as I recall last minute. But there were other reports at the time that Trump blew off the cemetery to meet in secret with Putin.
2. November 7 this report said they were to meet:

Trump, Putin to meet at a working lunch in Paris on Nov. 11: Kremlin reut.rs/2JLPFUQ
3. There was a flood of reports after Trump blew off the cemetery that it was to meet with his mob boss. Here's one.
Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
Trump solicited election fraud in North Carolina. A federal crime. Barr agred and has entered the conspiracy. Another federal crime. One day on the Trump Crime Spree. TheJusticeDept @FBIWFO
1. Make it three. Shut down of money to “anarchist cities” is arguably a violation of 18 U.S. Code § 598. Coercion by means of relief appropriations.

Whoever uses any part of any appropriation made by Congress for work relief, relief, or for increasing employment by providing
2. loans and grants for public-works projects, or exercises or administers any authority conferred by any Appropriation Act for the purpose of interfering with, restraining, or coercing any individual in the exercise of his right to vote at any election, shall
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
1. Democrats tend to focus their ads on other Democrats. It's understandable but, at this point, few if any Democrats will vote for Trump. The independents and a few never Hillary Dems are the key focus. But suppression of Trump's base, that is tabu when directed at a
2. historically targeted class like Black Americans, is fair play IMO. How would I suppress his votes without violating the Twitter rules on election disinformation? First I would make Trump part of the KGB that is anti-gun owner. Plant the seed that this is all intended to
3. disarm Americans. One think about Trump supporters is they are disposed to accept lies and conspiracy theories with little grooming necessary in advance.

One strategy might be to reach out to the real gun owners. Not the #GRU infiltrated @NRA
Read 9 tweets
2 Sep
1. I studied anarchists a bit in college. My undergrad legal studies professor at @UMassAmherst was one. I was his capitalist project. Anarchists were an alternative to Bolsheviks, emerging amid the Russian revolution advancing an anti-capitalist ideology focused on anti-
2. authoritarianism. I think it's an evolving modern political theory and I think would be a possible alternative to the criminal capitalism of the post-Soviet state. It occurred to me that Putin is afraid of that. He knows a lot about Russian political history and knows that
3. the Anarchists were the one leftist alternative to the authoritarian Bolsheviks. The concept of society engaged in self-rule was antithetical to the totalitarian dictatorship Lenin then Stalin advanced. Could the GRUs focus on Anarchists in the US be an artifact of the mortal
Read 13 tweets