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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ

Mar 15, 22 tweets

1/ Russian commentators are asking if the Russian government has shut down mobile Internet in Moscow due to fears of a coup attempt. With the shutdown now well into its second week, they express concern about the stability of the Putin regime. ⬇️

2/ Since March 5th, mobile Internet and even Wi-Fi in public places such as the Moscow Metro and State Duma have been shut down in central Moscow on the government's orders, for vague and unspecific security reasons. The shutdown has caused havoc for businesses and the public.

3/ This has caused widespread complaints and discontent, as discussed in the thread below. Only a few whitelisted services still work, with basic services such as taxi apps, payment terminals, maps, ATM cash withdrawals, and online banking all now blocked.

4/ The Russian government has said vaguely that the shutdown is to "ensure the security of our citizens," but rumours are increasingly spreading that the government fears a coup attempt, perhaps by elements of the security forces.

5/ 'kolobok1973' says that the shutdown is creating a looming feeling of an imminent coup:

"It takes boundless managerial stupidity and extraordinary social cretinism to manage, out of nowhere, to create in society the feeling of a coup d'état looming almost immediately."

6/ "Like in that joke—to scare yourself, because no one else is scared, and then aim to transmit this feeling of panic to others. So that not only you tremble, so to speak, but everyone else trembles along with you.

7/ "And why does society need this? Society has lived without this feeling for 32 years now [referring to the 1993 constitutional crisis], and it's not particularly eager for a repeat.

8/ "The blood was washed from Moscow's streets, the killer [i.e. then-President Boris Yeltsin] was buried (admittedly, a full 14 years after the bloodshed, which speaks volumes about how patient our people are and not prone to blood feuds), and we're living our lives.

9/ "But no, damn it. Once again, someone's naughty little hands are trying to recall well-forgotten passages.

Coups can be top-down, or they can result from, so to speak, a broad movement of the masses.

10/ "A top-down coup won't be thwarted by shutting down Telegram and YouTube (I can just picture high-ranking conspirators plotting their plots in Telegram or Facebook messages, and attaching YouTube recordings of the Marseillaise).

11/ "As for a broad movement of the masses, I'd like to remind those with playful hands on the power switch that the largest popular protests in post-Soviet Russia occurred before Telegram and Facebook, let alone the internet, had even been invented.

12/ "You don't need the internet for half a million people to take to the streets, like in 1993."

Political scientist Konstantin Kalachev sees the hand of overzealous 'ultra-conservatives' in the government, whom he says are bringing the system to the brink of destruction:

13/ "Continuing with the theme of ultra-conservatism, I'm practically certain that the unknown officials playing on the ultra-conservative side of the aisle hate the system deep down and are harming it according to the [allegedly Leninist] principle of 'the worse, the better.'

14/ "They're taking everything to the extreme in the hope that the system will one day collapse under the weight of this absurdity.

The "fifth column" of future liberalisation is now personally tightening the screws until the threads break.

And no one can blame them.

15/ "They were told to pray to God, but they smashed their foreheads on the floor [i.e. they were given an inch but took a mile].

This is not punishable.

Quite the contrary.

They'll even be rewarded for it."

16/ Vladimir Grubnik, writing as 'The Ghost of Novorossiya', fears that the Putin regime is repeating the mistakes of the former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych before his overthrow in 2014's Revolution of Dignity:

17/ "I can't shake the feeling that what's been happening over the past six months is particularly reminiscent of 2012-2013 in Ukraine.

18/ "Those were the years that laid the foundation for the situation which the Ukrainian Nazis and the collective West skillfully and successfully exploited.

19/ "It's terrible to witness the collapse of a state. But it's apparently even worse to see it happen again.

And to be completely unable to influence anything again.🤷‍🤷‍"

20/ Grubnik suggests that those responsible may not realise the harm they are doing:

"For those seeking a cunning victory, a cunning plan, and/or a cunning betrayal, we remind you of the basics for understanding the motivations of the modern establishment:

21/ "Do barnacles wish harm on a ship, woodworms on an oak tree, or tapeworms on an ox? They simply care for themselves and their offspring, but one fine day the ship sinks, the oak tree falls, the ox dies, and we begin to search for a terrible conspiracy." /end

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