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ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
ChrisO_wiki
@ChrisO_wiki
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
Jul 11 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
Jul 11 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
Jul 10 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️ Image 2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised. Image
Jul 10 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️ Image 2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
Jul 10 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
Jul 10 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
Jul 10 • 29 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️ Image 2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
Jul 9 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️ Image 2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
Jul 9 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has developed rapidly and with increasing nationwide severity. A Russian commentary notes that the Russian government only has limited options for dealing with fuel shortages, but these are being overtaken by a fast-growing black market in fuel. ⬇️ AI-generated image of a Russian fuel black marketeer 2/ 'Federation Towers' highlights how quickly Russia has been plunged into a full-scale fuel crisis:

"The Russian fuel market held up smoothly for all four years of the Special Military Operation."
Jul 9 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ It's logistically impossible for Russia to protect all of its strategic sites with its limited number of missile-based air defence systems, warns a Russian warblogger. Huge sites and obscured visibility requires many such systems but reduces the effectiveness of each. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Military Informant' highlights the practical difficulties of using SAM systems to provide adequate protection:

"When discussing the protection of rear-line facilities from cruise missile attacks, one thing is often forgotten."
Jul 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ In a stark illustration of the impact of Ukraine's drone strike campaign against Russian refineries, videos from occupied Mariupol show vehicles all but absent from the streets, with burned-out trucks visible along the roads. A Russian commentary highlights the crisis. ⬇️
2/ 'Novorossiya Militia Reports' writes:

"If anyone is monitoring the situation, they should know that Ukraine is delivering an average of two [destroyed] refineries to us per day."
Jul 8 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ The Russian government's aggressive suppression of news about Ukraine's oil refinery drone strikes appears to be backfiring. According to Russian sources, ordinary people don't think fuel shortages are real and are blaming the government instead. ⬇️
2/ News in Russia is tightly controlled, with most people getting their information from state TV and news outlets that are friendly towards the Kremlin. Negative news about the war in Ukraine, or even actual battlefield footage, is often absent from the state-controlled media.
Jul 8 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Russia faces a car apocalypse in the next few months due to the government's decision to allow scarce gasoline to be adulterated, a Russian warblogger warns. The low-quality gasoline will inevitably cause mass failures of vehicles across the country. ⬇️ Image 2/ Alexey Zhivov writes:

"In August and October, the country will be inundated with tens of thousands of video messages from car owners facing lengthy and expensive repairs. Some will be left without wheels."
Jul 8 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
1/ A Ukrainian attack on a Russian fuel convoy heading to Crimea across the Sea of Azov has likely crippled effects to supply the fuel-starved peninsula by water. Russian warbloggers are dismayed and scornful about the Russian government's tactics. ⬇️ 2/ Accoding to 'Important Stories', the vessels were carrying a total of 35,500 tons of fuel and other oil products:
Jul 7 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Crimea is approaching an economic collapse amidst chronic fuel and electricity shortages, according to a Russian report from the region. Even water is a problem, due to a lack of energy to power pumps and the need to use generators to extract it. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Telegram blogger 'Lawyer in the South' reports on the current situation in Crimea and the Russian south-west:
Jul 7 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Ukraine's drone campaign is leading not only to fuel shortages but also political recriminations in Russia. The attack on the Omsk oil refinery yesterday is prompting increasingly harsh condemnations of Russia's government by Russian warbloggers. ⬇️
2/ 'Older than Edda' is outraged at the attack's success:

"Drone debris has reached Omsk, and hostile channels are distributing a defamatory video claiming it landed and caused a fire at a plant."
Jul 7 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Why is Russia's air defence system so patchy that it regularly lets Ukrainian drones cross thousands of kilometres of Russian territory? A prominent Russian drone developer highlights a range of deficiencies in Russia's air defences. ⬇️
2/ As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:
Jul 6 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.
Jul 6 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Ukrainian drone manufacturer Fire Point's announcement that it has extended its FP-1 drone's range to 3,400 km (2,100 miles) is prompting alarm among Russian warbloggers. One notes that this puts many strategically vital sites in Siberia in range. ⬇️
2/ Russian journalist Igor Dmitriev comments:

"The head of Fire Point company, Denis Stiler, claims that the upgraded FP-1 drones can fly 3,400 km. Of course, he's just hype and lying! But if it's true, the following targets will be hit:
Jul 6 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
1/ What is the strategic purpose of Ukraine's intensive and relentless drone strike campaign against Russian-occupied Crimea? A Russian analysis suggests that it's intended to make the peninsula untenable and force Putin to sue for peace. ⬇️
2/ The Russian warblogger 'Artjockey' writes:

"Ukraine and Russia have exchanged long-range strikes: an oil refinery is on fire in Omsk, a warehouse has exploded in Kyiv, but I woke up thinking about Crimea."
Jul 6 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Frontline Russian soldiers are literally starving due to constant Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes preventing food deliveries, according to Russian accounts. In some cases, soldiers are said to be deliberately starving themselves so that they can be evacuated. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Northern Channel Plus' reports:

"The food situation in the 9th Motorised Rifle Regiment is quite dire. At the positions, or more accurately, in the holes, there is a severe shortage of food. Food deliveries are made every few days, and sometimes it can take a whole week."