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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
Apr 9 11 tweets 3 min read
1/ The Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has published a map showing the 'new' shipping lanes for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, what it shows greatly increases the risk of future shipping disasters in the Persian Gulf. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Strait of Hormuz is only 33–39 km (20-24 mi) wide at its narrowest point, but its usable width is far narrower. The shipping lanes in the middle of the Strait pass through a 9 km-wide (5 mi) stretch of the deepest water, comprising two 3 km wide lanes with a 3 km gap. Image
Apr 9 37 tweets 6 min read
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the links below for parts 1 and 2. In this part, he assesses the crucial role of communications systems in drone control. ⬇️ Image 2/ Part 1:
Apr 9 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the link below for part 1. In this part, he assesses problems with unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) which have become acute since Russia lost access to Starlink. ⬇️ Image 2/ Part 1:
Apr 9 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev has posted a lengthy and detailed description of what is going wrong for Russia in the drone warfare arms race, where he admits that it has fallen badly behind Ukraine, with lethal consequences for the Russian army. ⬇️ Image 2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development organisation. He is a key organiser in the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', a loose coalition of voluntary groups which provides the army with equipment.
Apr 8 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin reflects the views of many Russian commentators today in declaring Donald Trump's apparent climbdown over Iran to be a huge fiasco. He argues that "US authority will now be greatly undermined, and Trump's authority even more so." ⬇️ Image 2/ News of the ceasefire in the Gulf has made its way very quickly to the special prison for jailed former security officials where Girkin has been held since January 2024. He also hasn't wasted any time in responding on his Telegram channel:
Apr 8 13 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia's current efforts to advance are getting nowhere due to endless swarms of Ukrainian drones, says the head of the Novorossiya Aid Coordination Centre. He suggest that instead, Russia should 'temporarily' bank its gains and go on the defensive. ⬇️
2/ Alexander Lyubimov writes:

"Now it's important to take a very realistic assessment of the situation as of April 2026 and determine what we need to do in the near future to achieve Victory.
The most important factors in this situation are:"
Apr 8 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ Iran faces very serious problems even if the currently paused war ends with an agreement, warns Russian political scientist Nikolai Sevostyanov. While many Russians are celebrating the Iranian 'victory', Sevostyanov says the hardest part is still ahead. ⬇️ Image 2/ Guest-writing on the 'Voenkor Kotenok' Telegram channel, Sevostyanov says:
Apr 8 13 tweets 2 min read
1/ With a ceasefire now apparently in place in the Gulf, Iran has a golden opportunity to rearm – most likely with the aid of Russia, its main supplier of weapons since 2015. A Russian warblogger calls for missiles and drones to be rushed to Iran to prepare for a new war. ⬇️ Image 2/ While Iran's own military production capabilities have likely been severely damaged, it can almost certainly turn to Russia, which is only about 500 km (310 miles) away across the Caspian Sea. The two have extensively traded weapons in both directions.
Apr 7 19 tweets 4 min read
1/ Not to be outdone by the US Artemis II mission, Russia is reported to be rushing out its own plan to carve out territories on the moon. However, as a Russian political commentator observes, Russia's space capabilities have degenerated to the point that this is mere fantasy. ⬇️ Image 2/ Russia (and the Soviet Union before it, which envisaged the moon base shown above back in 1962) has long dreamed of establishing a presence on the moon. However, lack of funds and technological shortfalls have long prevented this.
Apr 7 13 tweets 2 min read
1/ The Russian army has switched to indigenously-produced Spirit-030 terminals to replace its blocked Starlink terminals. However, a Russian soldier and warblogger says it is far inferior, with poor latency and significant vulnerability to jamming. ⬇️
2/ Spirit-030 is a compact, portable Russian military satellite communication terminal designed as a tactical alternative to systems like Starlink. It provides secure satellite-based voice, data, and internet connectivity for frontline Russian forces.
Apr 7 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. ⬇️ Image 2/ Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee recently approved an eight-point "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan" that codifies the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth' into Iranian law.
Apr 7 25 tweets 5 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers warn of an alarming development: Ukraine's long-range drone strikes into Russia are reportedly being guided by Starlink connections, which potentially provides drones with precise and unjammable navigation across the entire country. ⬇️ Image 2/ While Starlink is normally a civilian network, Ukraine makes extensive use of it for military purposes, including on the front lines and in sea drones. Until recently, Starlink was blocked in Russia but not in Ukraine, which enabled the Russian military to use it as well.
Apr 6 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russia has reportedly provided Iran with targeting data on Israel's critical energy infrastructure, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources quoted by the Jerusalem Post. ⬇️
2/ The Post reports that the targets fall into three categories:

– Level 1: Critical production facilities, like the Orot Rabin power station, whose destruction would cripple the national energy system. Image
Apr 6 19 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russia's blocking of Telegram is having a devastating effect on the volunteer communities that support the Russian army in Ukraine. A Russian warblogger posts a despairing account of how the 'humanitarian aid' system has all but collapsed as a result. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian army is hugely dependent on volunteer-provided 'humanitarian aid' – which in practice means anything from drones to generators to bulletproof vests – because so little is provided by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Alexander Zaborovsky writes:
Apr 5 23 tweets 7 min read
1/ Goldman Sachs analysts report that the biggest oil crisis in history is about to hit globally, with profound and highly destructive consequences. A new report asks ""Are We Running Out of Oil?", and concludes that the answer is yes. ⬇️ Image 2/ Goldman reports that average daily flows of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 94% from their pre-war levels. Image
Apr 4 7 tweets 2 min read
1/ A shortage of drones reportedly means that Russian drone pilots often don't attack Ukrainian vehicles again after disabling them. This, says a serving Russian soldier, means that the Ukrainians are frequently able to retrieve disabled vehicles. ⬇️
2/ Russian forces in Ukraine have been complaining for a long time that they lack drones, with those provided by the Russian MOD being few and often of poor quality.
Apr 4 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ News of the destruction of yet another US aircraft on the ground is being met with incredulity by Russian Air Force pilots. They ask if the United States has learned nothing from Russia's own very costly experiences. ⬇️ 2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel run by a group of Russian military helicopter pilots, expresses astonishment at pictures published overnight of a US CH-47 Chinook helicopter that was destroyed on the ground in Kuwait.
Apr 4 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russian army commanders are reportedly refusing to allow stored ZSU-23-4 Shilkas mobile anti-aircraft guns to be refurbished and put back into service, despite Russia's desperate need for more defences against Ukraine's increasingly large-scale drone strikes. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel written by three Russian Aerospace Force pilots, writes:

"I was talking to some guys from one of the repair battalions the other day."
Apr 3 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russia has "shot itself in the dick" with its block on Telegram, according to a scathing commentary. A Russian warblogger notes that pro-Kremlin propagandists have seen huge falls in views of their Telegram channels, but not dissident and pro-Ukraine channels. ⬇️ Image 2/ Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Steshin calls it "a day of celebration for foreign agents, as the audience for pro-Russian channels on Telegram has plummeted."
Apr 3 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ In a further sign of an economic slump in Russia, the giant vehicle manufacturer AvtoVAZ will shut down production entirely for 17 days due to falling demand and overcrowded warehouses. Its vehicles aren't selling and storage facilities are overflowing. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports that AvtoVAZ will shut down its assembly lines for almost the entire period from 27 April to 17 May, with the workforce sent on mandatory leave.
Apr 2 20 tweets 4 min read
1/ Brutally murdering women in front of their children has effectively been legalised in Russia, due to the Russian government's policy of allowing pre-trial detainees to go to Ukraine to fight rather than facing justice. A horrific case from Voronezh highlights the problem. ⬇️ Image 2/ Madina Nikolaevna Mironenko, a 42-year-old soldier's widow and mother of four children, was dragged out of her house by her hair and stabbed to death by a masked neighbour, in front of her nine-year-old daughter. Another neighbour witnessed the attack and recognised the man.