1/ Average gasoline prices in the US could rise to an all-time record of $5.50, and much higher in some states, if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by the end of June. Citigroup warns that the world's oil inventories risk falling to record low levels. ⬇️ 2/ A new report published by Citi sets out scenarios for the current impasse in the Strait of Hormuz, while other analysts say it could take nine months for things to return to normal even if a peace agreement is signed. Citi's analysts predict three possible outcomes:

1/ Russia's premier drone unit, Rubikon, has published statistics on the Ukrainian targets it has hit to date. To the concern of some Russian warbloggers, they reveal a strikingly different targeting strategy from that used by Ukraine. ⬇️ 2/ Boris Rozhin reports on his 'Colonelcassad' Telegram channel:

"The Rubikon Center's official channel has published over 24,000 episodes of enemy target destruction.

Structure and dynamics of hit targets by type:

1/ Russian companies are blocking foreign IP addresses in a bid to block VPNs, stranding thousands of Russians abroad without access to money, flight details, or taxes. Major Russian apps are also being repurposed to scan users' phones for VPNs and secretly obtain user data. ⬇️ 2/ While apps such as Telegram, Instagram, and WhatsApp have been blocked in Russia, millions of Russians still access them daily using VPNs. However, the Russian government is working hard to choke off this access by deterring VPN use (while not yet banning them).

1/ Russia is entering a full-scale debt crisis, according to newly published official figures. Non-payments have reached an all-time high equivalent to nearly 4% of GDP or a fifth of the entire federal budget. It's a fresh sign of a deepening economic crisis worsened by war. ⬇️ 2/ Russian media is reporting today that data from Rosstat, the official statistics agency, says that as of the end of January 2026 unpaid business debt has reached a record 8.2 trillion rubles ($109.3 billion). Non-payments have nearly tripled since 2022.

1/ Russia's Ministry of Defence has hailed its first "airborne religious procession" – a fly-by of an icon of the Archangel Michael in a Mi-8 transport helicopter over Russian units in eastern Ukraine. However, it has received a sour response from those on the ground. ⬇️ 2/ According to the Russian MOD, "an Mi-8 helicopter carrying an icon of the Archangel Michael flew along the operational zone of the 27th Motorised Rifle Brigade and the 68th Motorised Rifle Division of the "West" group of forces.

A Ka-52 helicopter provided escort."

1/ Russia's continuing difficulties in the war in Ukraine is leading to multiple warbloggers admitting that the war effort is failing. The latest entry in the genre comes from Alexander Karchenko, who says that ordinary Russians are more concerned about the "price of a latte". ⬇️ 2/ Writing on his Telegram channel 'Witnesses of Bayraktar', Karchenko admits:

"Yes, we’re struggling. We’re all in this together. Me, you, and everyone reading this. For four years, we’ve been living in limbo."

1/ Ukraine's increasing dominance in drones is reportedly leading to individual Russian soldiers being attacked by 20 or 30 drones at once. Russian warbloggers say that Ukrainian drones are operating with impunity while their side faces a shortage. ⬇️

https://x.com/TrishulxIN/status/2044724654502510696

2/ A report by Russian news outlet RT says that as many as 20 to 30 drones are being used to attack individual Russian soldiers. 'Belarusian Silovik' responds: "Unfortunately, that’s exactly how it is."

1/ Ukraine's success this year in stalling Russia's offensive, and driving Russian forces back in some places, has prompted increasingly bleak assessments from Russian warbloggers. In a lengthy series of posts, Yuri Kotenok warns that Russia's war effort is faltering badly. ⬇️ 2/ In a six-part series of posts on his 'Voenkor Kotenok' Telegram channel, he writes:

1/ Russian soldiers are being sent to their deaths by the military police for infractions as trivial as not wearing a seatbelt. Many avoid doing so in order to jump out quickly if their vehicle is attacked by a drone, but they are finding that they face death either way. ⬇️ 2/ The Military Police (VPs) are the target of widespread hatred from ordinary Russian soldiers for their corruption and zealous enforcement of arbitrary rules. They are also helping to meet the army replenish depleted assault units by sending arrested individuals to them.

1/ The Russian MOD's reported decision to block the supply of drones to frontline troops and reserve them solely for the Unmanned Systems Forces continues to cause consternation among Russian warbloggers. Former drone pilot Andrey Filatov predicts disastrous consequences. ⬇️ 2/ Writing on Telegram, Filatov says:"Judging by rumours and the shortage of drones, there is a sense that Mr. (or whatever title the reader prefers) Krivoruchko, First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, wants to take drones away from frontline units,…

1/ Russia is reported to be sending reserve troops to Ukraine, even as its recruitment efforts are faltering. Recently posted videos suggest that reservists are being transported in handcuffs, and men who have lost legs and arms are also being sent into assaults. ⬇️ 2/ @ChristopherJM reported today that according to Ukrainian GUR head Vadym Skibitskyi, Russia is preparing for a fresh ground assault with the transfer of 20,000 reserve troops to Ukraine.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/2044745861171671201

1/ The distinguished Russian scientist Robert Nigmatulin says that Russia is "heading for disaster—a double-digit economic decline". In a speech at the International Economic Forum in Moscow, he has highlighted Russia's economic failings and called for urgent changes. ⬇️ 2/ Nigmatulin is an academician of 35 years' standing at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and a prominent Russian scientist, academician, and public figure who specialises in mechanics, physics, and mathematics.

1/ Russian warbloggers are baffled and aghast at reports that the Russian Ministry of Defence will ban the issue of drones to combat units, and will keep them for its new Unmanned Systems Forces instead. If carried out, the consequences are likely to be drastic. ⬇️ 2/ The Russian MOD established its Unmanned Systems Forces (BPS) in November 2025. To the concern of many commentators, it appointed Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Vaganov to command the new force, despite his lack of formal military education or prior service experience.

1/ A prominent Russian warblogger and Ka-52 helicopter pilot appears to have killed himself after posting an apparent farewell video on Telegram. 'Voivode', real name Alexey Zemtsov, says he has committed suicide due to pressure from his superiors. ⬇️
2/ Zemtsov is a Guards Senior Lieutenant in the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and administrator of the Telegram channel 'The Voivode Broadcasts', which has about 152,000 followers. He has been a prolific warblogger, but his criticisms caused serious problems with his superiors.

1/ In this third part of his exposé of how organised crime has taken over the Russian army in Ukraine, Russian journalist Sergey Komkov highlights how Russian commanders are now "jumping to the tune of robbers and murderers." ⬇️ 2/ Part 1 of his account is here:

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2044113408060997830

1/ Wealthy Russians are reportedly being offered the chance to have an hour-long meeting with Elon Musk's father Errol for the generous price of 1.9 million rubles ($25,000). Interested parties are advised to book slots quickly, as he flies out of Moscow tomorrow. ⬇️ 2/ Russian warblogger Alex Kartavykh has published an apparent Telegram conversation offering access to Errol Musk, who is said to be organising resettlement opportunities for Afrikaner farmers from South Africa.

1/ Russian tank crews are being sent to their deaths en masse in infantry assaults, according to a Russian soldier's plea for help. With tank use now severely limited due to drone strikes, their crews appear to be surplus to requirements. ⬇️

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2043977189901684907

2/ A Russian soldier writes to the warblogger 'Voenkor Kotenok':

"Hello. I can't help but tell you what's really going on in the tank battalion of the 110th Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (formerly the 100th Brigade of the DPR People's Militia).

1/ An "Organised Thieves' Den" that has taken over Russia's army in Ukraine is systematically exploiting the war for profit, caring nothing for Russia's ultimate success or failure, says Russian journalist Sergey Komkov. ⬇️ 2/ Here's part 1 of Komkov's exposé of how convicts recruited by the army have, in his assessment, effectively taken it over and are exploiting it for personal gain.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2044113373793521985

1/ The Russian army has been taken over by an organised crime syndicate, says a Russian journalist. The mass recruitment of criminals now means that crimes and corruption of all sorts – murder, torture, extortion, prostitution, drug and alcohol smuggling – are now routine. ⬇️ 2/ Sergey Komkov writes that organised crime has become "the most widespread social virus in the Special Military Operation zone, capable of burying virtually the entire combat capability of our Russian army."

1/ Ukraine is launching a new, agile system for rapid military deployment of new technology; Russia, not so much so. Pro-Kremlin warblogger Vladimir Romanov sarcastically highlights the differences between the Russian and Ukrainian systems. ⬇️ 2/ Romanov notes how Ukraine is "systematically streamlining the path of technological developments to the front lines":

"The [Ukrainian] government, at the recommendation of the Ministry of Defence, is launching a new model for purchasing innovative weapons for the army."

1/ Russia's Black Sea Fleet is trapped and largely neutralised, according to gloomy commentaries from Russian warbloggers. Ukraine's recent attack on its ships anchored at Novorossiysk show that its situation is a "catastrophic failure". ⬇️

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2041100980494708878?s=20

2/ Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian frigate at anchor at Novorossiysk on April 6th has been the subject of commentary from several Russian warbloggers, who have noted that the drones used were clearly under manual control for their terminal guidance. 'Rybar' writes: