1/ An immediate ban on the use of Telegram, ordered by the Russian MOD, is going to have disastrous effects on the Russian army's communications and fundraising, according to Russian warbloggers. ⬇️

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2033569776220492232

2/ Telegram plays a central role in Russian military communications (see the thread below). Although Russia does have a secure military messenger, in practice its usability is so limited that soldiers from privates to generals all use Telegram instead.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2023030248833732781

1/ Leaked orders from the Russian Ministry of Defence show that Telegram is being banned immediately for operational use by Russian forces in Ukraine, with soldiers reportedly facing being sent to their deaths in assaults if they are found not to be complying. ⬇️

2/ The orders, published by 'Unmanned Brotherhood' on Telegram, are intended to "counter enemy technical reconnaissance means, close possible leakage channels and prevent the disclosure of information about the actions of troops in the area of ​​a special military operation".

1/ The Russian government has sued communications equipment manufacturer NPO Angstrem for 7.65 billion rubles ($94.5 m) for allegedly committing a massive fraud, in which supposedly state-of-the-art hand-held radios were substituted for cheap relabeled Chinese products. ⬇️ 2/ The lawsuit is the latest in the sorry story of the R-187P Azart radio, dubbed 'the green crocodile' – an advanced software-defined radio said to be immune to interception. It was commissioned after the 2008 invasion of Georgia exposed serious communications failings.

1/ Russia is having increasing problems using drones in the Kherson area, due to improved Ukrainian electronic warfare and drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine is reported to have devised an ingenious approach to deploy fibre-optic drones across the Dnipro river. ⬇️ 2/ Since Russian forces retreated across the Dnipro in November 2022, control of the river's banks and its many islands has been contested by both sides.

1/ Russian commentators are asking if the Russian government has shut down mobile Internet in Moscow due to fears of a coup attempt. With the shutdown now well into its second week, they express concern about the stability of the Putin regime. ⬇️

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2032352148416086079

2/ Since March 5th, mobile Internet and even Wi-Fi in public places such as the Moscow Metro and State Duma have been shut down in central Moscow on the government's orders, for vague and unspecific security reasons. The shutdown has caused havoc for businesses and the public.

1/ A superpower invades a small island off the coast of an enemy nation. After a short bombardment, marines seize and hold the island. 126 days later, they stage a humiliating retreat under constant fire from the mainland. This is the story of Ukraine's Snake Island. ⬇️ 2/ With reports that the US may be considering seizing Iran's Kharg Island, it's worth reviewing what happened in Russia's disastrous attempt to capture the strategic Ostriv Zmiinyi (Snake Island) off the south-western coast of Ukraine between February and June 2022.

1/ Russia's air defences are doing great, according to Russian warbloggers. However, they say that those of Laos (a synecdoche for Russia, to evade censors) are crippled by shortages of manpower and resources, and an inflexible command and control system.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2018045465812476123

2/ Two popular Russian Telegram warbloggers discuss problems with the Russian air defence system, using carefully worded euphemisms to avoid getting into trouble with the authorities. 'RAG&E' writes:

1/ Russian journalist and analyst Yuri Baranchik asks plaintively: "why have they started terrorising the people?" He joins the dots between various recent actions by the Russian government, including the blocking of Telegram, and warns of a "1917 [or] 1989" scenario. ⬇️ 2/ Baranchik's lament is the latest in a growing trend of Russian commentators suddenly becoming aware that the repressive power of the state is being turned on 'loyal Russians', rather than just against the despised liberals or anti-war protesters.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2032387444553748636

1/ Muscovites are being locked into an ever-growing 'digital gulag', complain Russian warbloggers, as a still-mysterious mobile Internet shutdown in central Moscow enters its second week. The shutdown is reported to be causing huge commercial losses and inconvenience. ⬇️ 2/ Starting March 5th, Internet access in central Moscow was shut down, apparently on the orders of the Russian government. It has even extended to shutting down Wi-Fi on the Moscow Metro and the parliamentary Wi-Fi network in the State Duma.

1/ In recent weeks, an entire genre has sprung up on Telegram of Russian bloggers suddenly realising that they live in a repressive dictatorship. They complain bitterly that they were "fools", they are being "enslaved", and forced to endure a "cultural counter-revolution". ⬇️ 2/ The forthcoming ban on Telegram – likely to be announced on 1 April – appears to have woken up many Russian bloggers to the way the Russian government is systematically attacking free speech. 'Under the ice' predicts catastrophe:

1/ Russia simply isn't capable of doing in Ukraine what the US and Israeli air forces are doing in Iran, a prominent Russian warblogger admits. He blames the Russian air force's "organisational backwardness, underdeveloped intelligence, and lack of specialised aviation." ⬇️ 2/ Ukraine's aviation situation is starkly different to that of Iran's, despite facing a theoretically more powerful opponent. The Ukrainian Air Force is not only still flying in substantial numbers but has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Western aircraft.

1/ News that the Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected highlights its unusual governing structure as a 'polydictatorship'. In many ways, it was designed from the ground up to resist regime change. ⬇️

https://x.com/ErinBanco/status/2031872206238536190

2/ The regime comprises a multi-layered set of elected and unelected institutions that shares power across religious bodies bodies, the armed forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), and economic entities. Each provides a separate and distinct power centre.

1/ The shutdown of Starlink is reported to be causing a sharp rise in casualties among Russian signalmen and linemen, who are being systematically targeted by Ukrainian drones as they attempt to install alternative communications systems. ⬇️

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2023786987505741964

2/ Pro-Kremlin journalist Andrey Medvedev reports that "in those units where Starlink was operational and then shut down, there was an increase in the number of killed and wounded signalmen and linemen. Why do you think this is?"

1/ Ukrainian drone attacks deep in the Russian rear have prompted alarm among Russian warbloggers. They warn that the 'kill zone' behind the front line has expanded far into the rear of the Russian-occupied Donbas region. ⬇️

https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/2031333978200834082

2/ A drone attack on a highway near Pisky in the occupied Donetsk region prompts the 'Soldiers' Truth' Telegram channel to comment:

"On the question of why there's no search for the remains of missing persons in the Special Military Operation zone."

1/ Vladimir Putin is said to be concerned about a possible coup by the Russian military following the arrest of former First Deputy Defence Minister Ruslan Tsalikov. Mobile Internet in the centre of Moscow has been turned off for the past week, with no official explanation. ⬇️ 2/ Tsalikov's arrest last week was the culmination of a long-running corruption investigation (see thread below). Investigators have reportedly found that the former minister and his family had amassed property worth over 4 billion rubles.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1673605328452108288

1/ Iran is using a unique type of loitering, self-targeting surface to air missile to shoot down US MQ-9 Reaper drones. 11 Reapers costing over $330 million have so far been reported destroyed in the war with Iran. ⬇️
2/ The "358" missile, also known by NATO as the SA-67 and in Yemen as the Saqr-1, is a unique type of surface-to-air missile that is launched with a rocket booster and then loiters in a target area using a turbojet engine, scanning with an infrared sensor for airborne targets.

1/ Fundraising for the Russian army has been declining steeply for some time, leaving soldiers without essential equipment and supplies. A Russian warblogger explains that it's because soldiers are now seen as being recruited from the ranks of Russia's unwanted underclasses. ⬇️ 2/ Russia's professional army was decimated in the first months of the war in Ukraine. Losses were replaced by mobilising 300,000 men from September-October 2022 onwards. They were recruited from across society and were widely supported by the Russian public.

1/ Vladimir Putin's popularity ratings, as measured by a state-aligned pollster, are at their lowest point for years. Russian commentators blame the 'bad boyars' around Putin and say that "there's complete degradation all around" in Russia. ⬇️⬇️

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2031028009570824447

2/ The pollster VTsIOM has recorded Putin's popularity at 32.1%, the lowest seen during the war so far (though still some way off his pre-war nadir of 24%, recorded in 2021). Russian bloggers are not surprised, though few blame Putin himself and instead blame his advisors:

1/ Messages hacked from a Russian general's phone illustrate the sweeping scale of corruption at all levels of the Russian army. They highlight a top-to-bottom pyramid of extortion and bribery to obtain promotions and influence, plus scams and theft of military resources. ⬇️ 2/ Last month, it emerged that gigabytes of messages spanning 2022-2024 had been obtained by Ukrainian sources from the phone of Major General Roman Demurchiev, most likely as the result of a successful hack.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2024926999102283944

1/ Russia military policemen are engaged in another crackdown on privately owned vehicles operated by soldiers. Unfortunately for the soldiers, this is reported to be effectively lining them up for Ukrainian drone strikes. ⬇️ 2/ The Military Automobile Inspectorate (VAI) and Military Police (VP) have made themselves hugely unpopular among Russian soldiers for their attempts to stop Russian soldiers using privately owned vehicles.

1/ Iran's Kharg Island is reportedly under consideration as a target for capture by the Trump Administration. However, declassified US government documents show that the same thing was considered in 1979 but was rejected because it was too difficult and risky. ⬇️ 2/ President Jimmy Carter and his National Security Council met in the afternoon of November 6, 1979 to discuss the ongoing Iranian hostage crisis. The discussion involved options for putting pressure on the Khomenei regime, including targeting Kharg Island.