ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
Mar 31 9 tweets 3 min read
1/ An ongoing list of the times that Donald Trump has declared victory in the war in Iran (this will be expanded over time): Image 2/ March 7th: "We don't need people that join Wars after we've already won!"
Mar 31 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ The City of London bank Peel Hunt has warned investors that Donald Trump "may have lost control" of the Iran war, raising the "real risk of an inflationary recession" globally. Prolonged higher interest rates are forecast to be a significant possibility. ⬇️ Image 2/ The bank has issued a briefing note to investors drafted by its chief economist, @KallumPickering. He writes:
Mar 31 23 tweets 6 min read
1/ The US attempted to send several Iran-bound bombers to an Italian air base without prior authorisation and was refused permission by the Italian government while the aircraft were in flight. The news comes a day after Spain disclosed it was refusing US military overflights. ⬇️ Image 2/ Corriere della Sella and La Republicca report that on Fridary 27 March, the Italian Chief of the Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano, was informed that several US bombers were inbound to the Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, controlled by the Italian Air Force. Image
Mar 31 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russians are facing an 'internet tax', reportedly imposed by a secret decree from Vladimir Putin, of 150 rubles ($1.84) for each gigabyte of VPN traffic they use. This is being seen by commentators as a new way of suppressing Telegram's 100 million users in Russia. ⬇️ Image 2/ The BBC Russian Service reports that the FSB has told the Ministry of Digital Development to impose a tax on every gigabyte of VPN traffic after an initial 15 Gb. The FSB wants to discourage Russians from connecting to foreign VPN servers to access resources blocked in Russia.
Mar 30 32 tweets 5 min read
1/ Recruitment for Russia's drone forces has slumped, despite an intensive recruitment campaign, because potential volunteers fear being forced to become stormtroopers. The situation is so severe that a Russian general has suggested moving drone forces out of the Russian army. ⬇️ Image 2/ Alexey Chadayev, the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre – a leading Russian drone development organisation – recounts a conversation that he had recently with a Russian lieutenant general about the army's failing UAV pilot recruitment programme:
Mar 30 4 tweets 1 min read
1/ Without Telegram, which is now fully banned for Russian military use, Russian soldiers in Ukraine are finding it harder – or impossible – to do previously everyday tasks. A brief summary by a Russian signalman highlights specific problems: Image 2/ "Just to give you a little context, it's worth mentioning that:

Without a little help, I can't:

- download current height matrices for work communications tasks from the ZOV map channel [for an officially approved map app]
Mar 30 5 tweets 1 min read
1/ Yet more Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia's Baltic oil terminals have prompted angry comments from Russian warbloggers about air defence failures. Interestingly, this is also leading to hitherto unthinkable condemnations of Putin himself. ⬇️
2/ 'Bomber Harris DID NOTHING WRONG' complains:

"Regular air raids, and they haven't even deployed mobile task forces to the border to intercept UAVs, and there are no firing positions on site."
Mar 30 16 tweets 4 min read
1/ Spain has banned US military aircraft from using its airspace to attack Iran, forcing them to take much longer routes around the Iberian Peninsula. The Spanish government says it will not support a war that lacks legal cover. ⬇️
2/ The Spanish newspaper El País reports that Spain has banned the use of the air bases at Rota and Morón de la Frontera to US fighter aircraft, bombers, and tanker aircraft involved in the war in Iran, including those based in the UK.
Mar 30 28 tweets 8 min read
1/ Is the Iran War Donald Trump's Kobayashi Maru? Here's why the classic Star Trek no-win scenario holds lessons for what happens next in the Persian Gulf. ⬇️ Image
Image
2/ In Star Trek, the Kobayashi Maru is a scenario which Star Fleet cadets have to undertake. They must respond to a distress call from a crippled ship in the Klingon Neutral Zone — but any rescue attempt triggers a war, and doing nothing lets the crew die. Image
Mar 29 25 tweets 4 min read
1/ The world is facing a 'ticking time bomb' from its supply of oil, according to a briefing note from JP Morgan. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. ⬇️ Image 2/ The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic through the strait by 97%, cutting off most of the Persian Gulf oil and gas supply from tanker shipment. The reduction in the supply of oil is twice as large as seen in any previous oil crisis, according to the IEA.
Mar 29 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ A recent survey show a widespread climate of fear among the US federal workforce since the election of Donald Trump. In particular, it shows massive drops in willingness to report illegal activity in departments where it has huge significance for military affairs. Notably:

– Department of the Air Force: 74.6% (2024) ⤵️ 26.2% (2025)
– Department of the Navy: 74.4% (2024) ⤵️ 34.8% (2025)
– Department of the Army: 75.2% (2024) ⤵️ 41.9% (2025)
– Office of the Secretary of War, Joint Staff, Defense Agencies, and Department of War Field Activities: 69.1% (2024) ⤵️ 32.8% (2025)Image 2/ It's very noteworthy that all three military departments (Army, Navy and Air Force) started in almost exactly the same place – 74-75% – but have fallen to strikingly different levels: 41.9% for the Army, but only 26.2% for the Air Force.
Mar 28 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ US forces carrying out ground operations in Iran are highly likely to encounter Iranian FPV drones of similar kinds to those currently killing and wounding tens of thousands of Russians a month in Ukraine. Iran has already demonstrated FPV capabilities in a 2025 exercise. ⬇️ Image 2/ In February and December 2025, Iran held 'anti-terror' exercises codenamed Sahand-2025. They were conducted in the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Image
Mar 28 23 tweets 4 min read
1/ Ukraine's drone strikes on the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga have prompted a familiar refrain from Russian warbloggers: what air defence doing? One warblogger sees a dire future ahead for Russia in the face of its enemies in the Baltic region. ⬇️
2/ On Telegram, the Russian journalist Yuri Kotenok (writing as 'Voenkor Kotenok') comments:

"The strikes on Ust-Luga are an extremely alarming symptom, or rather, a signal, not only because they are aimed at destroying Russia's global infrastructure."
Mar 27 13 tweets 3 min read
1/ Iran is seeking to establish a pay-to-sail regime in the Strait of Hormuz, under which it could earn over a quarter of a billion dollars a day. A senior member of the Iranian parliament says that vessels seeking to transit the strait will be charged $2 million each time. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Financial Times and Rudaw report that the Iranian government intends to fully monetise the strait by forcing passing ships to pay a fee for each passage. The "new regime" has been announced on state television by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian.
Mar 27 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ Claims by pro-Russians that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports went via Poland and the Baltic states have been met with scepticism by warblogger 'Fighterbomber'. If that's so, why has Russia not protested to those states?, he asks. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Fighterbomber', who has close links with the Russian Air Force, points out what Conan Doyle might have called the dog that didn't bark: the fact that the Russian government has said nothing about Ukrainian drones supposedly being routed over NATO territory: Image
Mar 26 34 tweets 10 min read
1/ With American ground forces building up in the Gulf region, much attention has been paid to Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf. But what about the Iranian-held islands in the Strait of Hormuz? Here's why they might be a higher priority for possible landings. ⬇️ Image 2/ Seven Iranian-controlled islands punctuate the narrow strait between Iran and Oman: from west to east, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak and Hormuz itself. All are part of Iran's Hormozgan province.
Mar 26 57 tweets 11 min read
1/ The Ukraine war is a "dead end" which "could last for a hundred years", according to a gloomy Russian commentary. The transparency of the battlefield and its domination by drones has made large offensives "downright impossible" and is causing vast numbers of casualties. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' has written a long and detailed analysis of the situation at the front lines, following similarly gloomy outlooks by other warbloggers (see the thread below).
Mar 26 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ An experiment by Russia's FSB has indicated that thousands of Russians are likely to be willing to carry out sabotage attacks on behalf of Ukraine or other foreign actors. In only three hours, the FSB recruited ten would-be saboteurs via Telegram. ⬇️ Image 2/ Russia has experienced regular sabotage attacks carried out by people who have been recruited by foreign agents over the Internet, usually via Telegram. They are sometimes tricked into thinking they are working for the Russian security forces.
Mar 25 25 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly concluding that the war in Ukraine is stalemated and cannot be won by military means. Two prominent warbloggers have published gloomy commentaries explaining why. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Fighterbomber', a blogger with links to the Russian Air Force, comments:

"We still have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and then Donbas will be liberated.

In my opinion, we have three main options."
Mar 25 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russia should take advantage of the Iran war by launching a massive war-winning offensive to capture Kyiv and Odesa, says a prominent Russian warblogger. The conditions he identifies for Russia doing so, however, are so onerous that they are practically impossible to meet. ⬇️ Image 2/ Alexey Zhivov asks:

"How is victory possible in the Special Military Operation?

After the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the battle for Kupiansk, any significant news about the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces has ceased to come from the front."
Mar 25 13 tweets 4 min read
1/ The Russian army is recruiting alcoholics directly from rehab and sending them to the front line, according to a serving Russian soldier, who says they "couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head." It highlights how Russia is using 'disposable' men. ⬇️ Image 2/ In the undated video below, an unnamed Russian soldier complains about the latest replenishments in his detachment, who are to be sent to assault squads: "They've got a bunch of fucking cripples. They couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head."