1/ Iran is seeking to establish a pay-to-sail regime in the Strait of Hormuz, under which it could earn over a quarter of a billion dollars a day. A senior member of the Iranian parliament says that vessels seeking to transit the strait will be charged $2 million each time. ⬇️ 2/ The Financial Times and Rudaw report that the Iranian government intends to fully monetise the strait by forcing passing ships to pay a fee for each passage. The "new regime" has been announced on state television by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian.

1/ Claims by pro-Russians that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports went via Poland and the Baltic states have been met with scepticism by warblogger 'Fighterbomber'. If that's so, why has Russia not protested to those states?, he asks. ⬇️ 2/ 'Fighterbomber', who has close links with the Russian Air Force, points out what Conan Doyle might have called the dog that didn't bark: the fact that the Russian government has said nothing about Ukrainian drones supposedly being routed over NATO territory:

1/ With American ground forces building up in the Gulf region, much attention has been paid to Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf. But what about the Iranian-held islands in the Strait of Hormuz? Here's why they might be a higher priority for possible landings. ⬇️ 2/ Seven Iranian-controlled islands punctuate the narrow strait between Iran and Oman: from west to east, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak and Hormuz itself. All are part of Iran's Hormozgan province.

1/ The Ukraine war is a "dead end" which "could last for a hundred years", according to a gloomy Russian commentary. The transparency of the battlefield and its domination by drones has made large offensives "downright impossible" and is causing vast numbers of casualties. ⬇️ 2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' has written a long and detailed analysis of the situation at the front lines, following similarly gloomy outlooks by other warbloggers (see the thread below).

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2036869226552610979

1/ An experiment by Russia's FSB has indicated that thousands of Russians are likely to be willing to carry out sabotage attacks on behalf of Ukraine or other foreign actors. In only three hours, the FSB recruited ten would-be saboteurs via Telegram. ⬇️ 2/ Russia has experienced regular sabotage attacks carried out by people who have been recruited by foreign agents over the Internet, usually via Telegram. They are sometimes tricked into thinking they are working for the Russian security forces.

1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly concluding that the war in Ukraine is stalemated and cannot be won by military means. Two prominent warbloggers have published gloomy commentaries explaining why. ⬇️ 2/ 'Fighterbomber', a blogger with links to the Russian Air Force, comments:

"We still have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and then Donbas will be liberated.

In my opinion, we have three main options."

1/ Russia should take advantage of the Iran war by launching a massive war-winning offensive to capture Kyiv and Odesa, says a prominent Russian warblogger. The conditions he identifies for Russia doing so, however, are so onerous that they are practically impossible to meet. ⬇️ 2/ Alexey Zhivov asks:

"How is victory possible in the Special Military Operation?

After the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the battle for Kupiansk, any significant news about the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces has ceased to come from the front."

1/ The Russian army is recruiting alcoholics directly from rehab and sending them to the front line, according to a serving Russian soldier, who says they "couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head." It highlights how Russia is using 'disposable' men. ⬇️ 2/ In the undated video below, an unnamed Russian soldier complains about the latest replenishments in his detachment, who are to be sent to assault squads: "They've got a bunch of fucking cripples. They couldn't even walk, and they're also just plain sick in the head."

1/ Russian forces are struggling to communicate without Starlink, according to a commentary by Russia's prominent warblogging channel Rybar on Telegram. It says that Ukraine's position has improved and its losses have fallen due to the shutdown of Starlink for Russian forces. ⬇️ 2/ Rybar writes:

"A month and a half has passed since Starlink ceased operation for Russian troops in the Special Military Operation. The situation has partially stabilised in some areas, but the overall problems remain.

1/ Russia's Telegram ban and Internet blocks risk having a counter-productive effect similar to Prohibition in the US a century ago, warn Russian commentators – driving people to acts of civic resistance and pushing them into ideologically unsound spaces. ⬇️ 2/ Sergey Kolyashnikov notes how the alcohol ban imposed on the US during Prohibition backfired by turning millions of people into lawbreakers and spurring the growth of the Italian mafia and others seeking to bypass the ban for profit. He sees a similar phenomenon now in Russia:

1/ Russian forces have suffered a major defeat near Lyman, with the loss of numerous men and armoured vehicles. The survivors complain that the Ukrainians "fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse" and accuse a Russian general of a reckless gamble. ⬇️

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2035315325030236415

2/ A frontline soldier writing in the 'Management Speaks' Telegram channel gives a furious and graphic account of what happened, in a since-deleted post that also highlights the ongoing collapse in fundraising since Telegram was blocked for many Russians:

1/ Has Donald Trump accidentally recreated, in an even more severe form, the energy crisis that doomed Jimmy Carter's presidency? A comparison with the 1979 oil crisis shows worrying parallels with the current situation. ⬇️ 2/ In August 2023, former Fed chair Larry Summers (@LHSummers) noted this in the Washington Post: "It is sobering to recall that the shape of the past decade’s inflation curve almost perfectly shadows its path from 1966 to 1976 before it accelerated in the late 1970s."

1/ As the Russian government's strangulation of the Internet deepens, Russian businesses are waking up to the long-feared reality of the so-called 'Cheburnet' – a walled-off national intranet for only selected companies and services. Economic disaster is forecast. ⬇️ 2/ 'Cheburnet' (a portmenteau of 'Internet' and the iconic Soviet/Russian children's character Cheburashka) is the standard, sardonic Russian term for the government's long-held ambition to create a North Korea-style 'sovereign Internet', walled off from the outside world.

1/ India is ripping off Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over oil shipments, according to an angry Russian commentary. India will not pay for Russian oil in anything other than Indian rupees and Indian-made goods, which Russian companies don't want. ⬇️ 2/ 'Political Report' writes:

"For several years, Russian officials proudly declared that Europe, by rejecting Russian oil, was only harming itself, while Russia continued to quietly sell its oil to other buyers and enrich itself."

1/ Russian sources say that Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, under the command of Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, have made "significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology". Russian soldiers are facing "slaughter [like] cattle" as a result. ⬇️ 2/ Andrey Medvedev writes:

"We've been reporting since the fall that the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian drone manufacturers have made significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology.

1/ Another Russian helicopter has been lost over Ukraine – the second in two days, after yesterday's shootdown of a Ka-52 by an FPV drone (seen here). The Russian warblogger 'Fighterbomber' is angry at the lack of EW protection on helicopters. ⬇️

https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/2034971144223137874?s=20

2/ 'Fighterbomber' writes:

"It's a bad morning.

We've lost another aircraft.

The reasons are still unclear.

It's clear that everyone is now preoccupied with urgently installing anti-FPV drone electronic warfare systems on attack helicopters."

1/ Has Iran managed to reinvent the Sound Dues – the tolls that Denmark imposed for over 400 years on ships entering the Baltic Sea? Recent ship movements suggest that rather than completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is monetising it instead. ⬇️ 2/ Between 1429 and 1857, Denmark levied a toll on ships passing through the Øresund, the body of water separating Denmark from Sweden. At the time, Denmark controlled both sides of the strait with the castles at Helsingør (Hamlet's Elsinore) and Helsingborg.

1/ Russian soldiers are now divided into two 'castes', says a front-line soldier: "short-livers", who die almost immediately after being sent to the front in Ukraine, often as a punishment, and "long-livers", the privileged ones in the officer cadre and rear areas. ⬇️ 2/ A Russian soldier in Ukraine writes to the 'Ramsay' Telegram channel:

"Everyone today understands the brutal nature of today's war, where two "castes" of participants have effectively emerged—as in [Ivan] Efremov's novel "The Hour of the Bull"—the "KZhI" and the "DZhI."

1/ Russia faces increasing difficulties in its war in Ukraine, comments a Russian warblogger, including a build-up of Ukrainian offensive capabilities, a military system that weeds out "energetic, proactive people", and the likely loss of Trump's assistance after the midterms. ⬇️ 2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' writes that a new sense of realism is setting in among the 'turbo-patriots' who promote the Russian government's talking points on TV:

"Our TV show 'stars' are accustomed to convincing viewers that the enemy in Ukraine is almost defeated."

1/ It's very hard to win a war with a strategy that is built on bullshit. This was one of the key lessons of World War II, thanks to the approach taken by Adolf Hitler, who launched the war in Europe. Here are some of the lessons from Hitler's Great European Bullshit War. ⬇️ 2/ Harry Frankfurt's famous essay "On Bullshit" draws a crucial distinction that is useful to consider here. A liar knows the truth and deliberately inverts it. A bullshitter is entirely indifferent to truth – what matters is the effect produced and the audience managed.

1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️ 2/ The Danish public broadcaster DR reports that officials in Denmark, France and Germany say that Donald Trump's threats to seize Greenland were taken so seriously that wide-ranging preparations were made to forcibly resist a US invasion of the Danish island.