1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2074173451665854732

2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.

1/ Ukrainian drone manufacturer Fire Point's announcement that it has extended its FP-1 drone's range to 3,400 km (2,100 miles) is prompting alarm among Russian warbloggers. One notes that this puts many strategically vital sites in Siberia in range. ⬇️

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2073281583881032071?s=20

2/ Russian journalist Igor Dmitriev comments:

"The head of Fire Point company, Denis Stiler, claims that the upgraded FP-1 drones can fly 3,400 km. Of course, he's just hype and lying! But if it's true, the following targets will be hit:

1/ Frontline Russian soldiers are literally starving due to constant Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes preventing food deliveries, according to Russian accounts. In some cases, soldiers are said to be deliberately starving themselves so that they can be evacuated. ⬇️ 2/ 'Northern Channel Plus' reports:

"The food situation in the 9th Motorised Rifle Regiment is quite dire. At the positions, or more accurately, in the holes, there is a severe shortage of food. Food deliveries are made every few days, and sometimes it can take a whole week."

1/ Russian horse breeders are reporting booming sales due to the ongoing fuel crisis. Despite the expenses of owning a horse, they are now cheaper to maintain than constantly refuelling an SUV. ⬇️

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/2069534571755078052

2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports:

"About a thousand horses were saved from slaughterhouses in Russia due to the rise in gasoline prices."

1/ Nikolai Patrushev, a key adviser to Vladimir Putin, says that Russia is fighting a pan-European neo-Nazi alliance, and advocates Russian naval action in the English Channel. He warns the Baltic states of "the end of ... peaceful, carefree life and sovereignty." ⬇️ 2/ Patrushev is a former Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a former head of the FSB, and a highly influential presidential adviser. He has been spoken of as a possible successor to Putin. Like Putin, he has often shown an extremely paranoid, aggressive worldview.

1/ Russia's former chief doctor Gennady Onishchenko says that the current fuel crisis is positively beneficial for Russia: it's making the air cleaner, and city residents are becoming fitter by being deprived of their cars. Russian commentators are wondering what he's smoking. ⬇️ 2/ The comments were made by Onishchenko, an academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview on Friday with the Moscow Speaks radio station:

1/ A Russian general has been arrested by a military court after being accused of 'selling' nearly 90 soldiers to a mercenary leader who is accused of extortion, kidnapping, arms trafficking, torture, and murder. Lt Gen Alexander Dembitsky denies the accusations. ⬇️ 2/ The case involves Alexey Marushchenko, the head of the 'Yastreb' private military company, which fought in Ukraine. Yastreb's recruiters are said to have promised those who wished to enlish for military service that they would fight with Yastreb, rather than the regular army.

1/ An infamous Russian 'butcher commander' accused of sending his subordinates to their deaths to cover up his own drug-dealing has been promoted to command the 114th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. His many critics aren't impressed by this apparent favouritism. ⬇️ 2/ Colonel Igor Puzik, callsign 'Evil,' gained notoriety in 2024 after two drone operators with the callsigns 'Goodwin' and 'Ernest' publicly accused Puzik of drug trafficking in a social media video. He sent them to their deaths in an infantry assault a few days later.

1/ Soaring fuel prices in Russia are providing an unparalleled opportunity to make a quick profit through price gouging, artificial scarcity, and corruption. A Russian warblogger highlights how gas station owners and operators are exploiting the crisis. ⬇️ 2/ The Russian 'Kovpak's Detachment' Telegram channel writes:

"In the case of absolutely any shortage, tension in society is created by those who want to make money on it."

1/ Russia's deal with India to supply fuel to alleviate the current shortages involves the Indians selling fuel refined from discounted Russian oil back to Russia at full market prices. As warblogger Yuri Baranchik points out, this is extraordinarily bad value for Russia. ⬇️ 2/ Baranchik grumbles:

"Well, gentlemen, it's happened: we're witnessing the birth of a new economic reality, which can safely be called "a cycle of enrichment for the Indian oil refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens."

1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️ 2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:

1/ Russian soldiers are reported to be refusing en masse to attack across the border west of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian army units are said to have run out of fuel amidst the ongoing fuel crisis. ⬇️ 2/ The Russians are currently trying to link up two pockets on the border in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, to the east and west of the Russian village of Sereda, by attacking to the south. However, Ukrainian drones are reportedly making this unbearably bloody.

1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:

1/ Russia is preparing for its borders to be closed in the fall of 2026, according to a Russian source. If confirmed, the report potentially adds credence to indications that Russia is preparing for a fresh mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September. ⬇️ 2/ There have recently been persistent but unconfirmed claims that the Kremlin is planning to carry out a large-scale mobilisation to swamp Ukrainian forces with fresh troops in order to achieve Vladimir Putin's goal of capturing all of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.

1/ Russian sources say that Kazakhstan will provide 50,000 tons of gasoline to Russia in July and August as 'humanitarian aid'. However, as this amounts to only slightly more than 1.6% of Russia's monthly gasoline consumption, it's little more than a token effort. ⬇️ 2/ According to Reuters, Russian sources say that Al-95 and Al-92 gasoline will be provided from the Pavlodar oil refinery and the "Condensate" oil refinery, which processes Russian raw materials. However, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy is more equivocal:

1/ Female Russian convict soldiers are complaining that the Russian military has reneged on their contracts. Instead of being pardoned after completing their military service, they say, they will now be sent back to jail. 2/ 39-year-old Lyudmila Leonidovna Poltarakova was recruited from a Russian prison along with more than 80 other women. She is part of the 370th Separate Medical Battalion (military unit 57062) of the 2nd Guards Taman Motor Rifle Division.

1/ Enormous numbers of casualties have reduced some Russian assault units to as little as 32% of their authorised strength. Leaked data shows widespread undermanning, with dozens of UAV specialists reported to have been sent to stormtrooper units to replace casualties. ⬇️ 2/ An officer of the 752nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (military unit 34670), part of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army, has reportedly leaked manpower data from the regiment. It shows very low levels of staffing among assault units.

1/ Ukraine's attacks on Russia's space communications complexes appear intended to systematically degrade the Russian military's ability to access satellite imagery and communications. Analysts say they'll have a serious impact on military capabilities. ⬇️ 2/ Ukraine has so far carried out three attacks on Russia's space communication centers (SCCs) in the Moscow and Vladimir regions. The Dubna SCC was hit twice, on 22 and 30 June, and the Vladimir SCC in Gus-Khrustalny was hit on 24 June.

1/ Despite fuel supposedly being reserved for the emergency services, a Russian medic says that the current fuel shortage is causing a crisis for ambulances, which are now standing idle. It's not our fault, she adds, and anyway, most ambulance users are useless time-wasters. ⬇️ 2/ The 'Closed Agenda' Telegram channel publishes a video from Bryansk, which has been badly hit by the fuel shortage caused by Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries. The channel is bitterly critical of the Russian authorities:

1/ The Russian authorities are trying to address the current fuel crisis by persuading the population, improbably, that having a full tank of gas is dangerous. Russian bloggers are gleefully trashing what they see as a stunningly inept 'anti-crisis' campaign. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' commends the government's mouthpieces for highlighting a hitherto unrecognised danger:

"It turns out that filling the tank to the brim is harmful to the car's health and can lead to its breakdown. A useful tip for car enthusiasts. Good advice."

1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Ukraine's drone offensive is setting the conditions for a direct attack on Crimea, by chopping Russian forces in the south of Ukraine into isolated fragments with limited manoeuvrability caused by a lack of fuel. ⬇️ 2/ In a new message on his Telegram channel, the imprisoned Girkin writes: