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ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
ChrisO_wiki
@ChrisO_wiki
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
May 5 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
1/ The world is very rapidly running out of refined fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, according to a new Goldman Sachs report, with only 45 days' worth of stockpiles of jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG remaining. Rationing, surcharges, and mass cancellations are forecast. ⬇️ Image 2/ A research note authored by Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven has examined the impact of Middle East disruptions on refined product markets, finding that jet fuel and diesel are being hit far harder than crude oil.
May 5 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Russia's (allegedly) most incompetent general says he plans to stand for election in Tatarstan as a candidate for Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. Russian warbloggers are unimpressed at Colonel General Alexander Lapin's continued failure upward. ⬇️ Image 2/ Lapin has repeatedly been dismissed from his positions since the start of the Ukraine war, and has attracted a great deal of criticism – likely justified – for his failures in command. Now retired, this unpopularity has not stopped him from declaring his candidacy:
May 4 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️ Image 2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
May 3 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear." Image 2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
May 2 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️ Image 2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
May 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Tungsten' writes:

""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.

Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
May 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they've been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones. This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they're Ukrainian. ⬇️
2/ A soldier writes to the 'Svarschiki' Telegram channel:

"Hello, I’m from the Kherson direction. Over us, the asshole fart-planes constantly fly by, their wings roam completely freely, and at night the Bony One [Death] does whatever the hell it wants…"
May 1 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️ Image 2/ Zhivov calls 2026 "A Window of Opportunity, or Why Ukraine's Allies Need to Be Attacked Now." He envisages Russia carrying out Europe-wide missile attacks against factories and bases which are supporting Ukraine's war effort, while relying on Trump not helping Europe:
May 1 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Russians are increasingly worried that they face a repeat of one of the greatest traumas of their recent history: the loss of their savings, as last happened in the economic crisis of the 1990s. Russian commentators are aghast at the prospect. ⬇️ Image 2/ Central bank officials and politicians in Russia have recently been floating the possibility that, due to Russia's worsening budget deficit caused by sanctions and the war in Ukraine, the government may confiscate deposits above a certain amount and issue credit notes instead.
Apr 30 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The Russian government's lackdaisical response to Ukrainian drone strikes on Tuapse, which have caused an environmental disaster, has caused growing anger among Russian commentators. They foresee "the beginning of a major logistical collapse." ⬇️
2/ A scathing commentary on the 'Federation Towers' Telegram channel ('Towers' is a euphemism for the Kremlin's factions) blames the increasingly disastrous situation in Tuapse and elsewhere on official buck-passing, corruption, cover-ups, and a reluctance to take responsibility:
Apr 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Even as Ukraine ramps up its use of unmanned ground vehicles, demand for Russian UGVs has reportedly collapsed and all of their developers are facing bankruptcy for lack of demand. The reason is the blocking of Starlink for the Russian side. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev writes about the currently disastrous state of Russian UGV deployments, which were reliant on Starlink access but can no longer be used effectively since the cutoff in February:
Apr 30 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
1/ As another Russian oil installation goes up in flames, Russian warbloggers are frustrated at the continued failure of their air defences. 'Fighterbomber' says that the scaling back of the Moscow May Day Parade shows their lack of reliability. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber' is scornful of the anodyne tone of an official announcement about the attack:

"One fucking drone—its debris, naturally—caused a bit of a Armageddon in Perm. If there had been two, it’s too scary to imagine what would have happened."
Apr 29 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1/ One of Israel's largest grain importers has been identified as the customer for 26,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain currently aboard the ship Panormitis. Zenziper says it did not know the grain was stolen and is waiting for government instructions. ⬇️
2/ The Israeli news website The Marker reports that Zenziper, the leading player in Israel’s grain import market, has a sales agreement with a Russian company to buy an estimated $7 million worth of grain aboard the Panormitis, which is currently waiting to dock off Haifa.
Apr 29 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Tuapse is on fire again, and once again Russians are asking why their air defences are so inadequate. Prominent Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev blames the lack of any clearly defined responsibility for air defence.
2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development group. In a commentary on his Telegram channel, he highlights how disorganisation and unclear responsibilities are undermining Russian air defences.
Apr 29 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The Russian officer who oversaw the occupation of Bucha in 2022, during which an estimated 458 Ukrainians were murdered, has been targeted by a bomb attack in the Russian Far East. Major General Azatbek Omurbekov's condition is currently unknown; another officer was killed. ⬇️ Image 2/ According to VChK-OGPU, the attack took place on 28 April at a military garrison located in the village of Knyaze-Volkonskoye-1 in the Khabarovsk Krai. A bomb exploded in a mailbox, killing Lieutenant Colonel Kuzmenko, the commander of the training communications battalion. Image
Apr 29 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Downloads of VPNs have soared by 1,300% in Russia as citizens try en masse to circumvent government blocks on popular apps like Telegram. As a Russian commentator warns, this is likely to lead to the government criminalising VPN use in the near future. ⬇️ Image 2/ Yuri Baranchik writes about how Russians are adapting to a "digital concentration camp":

"According to media reports, VPN app downloads in Russia have increased 14-fold in one year (!). From March 2025 to March 2026, 35.7 million downloads were recorded on Google Play alone."
Apr 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ The acting US Ambassador to Ukraine is to resign over differences with the Trump Administration, becoming the second ambassador to do so in just over a year, and the third to resign under Donald Trump. She is said to be frustrated at Trump's lack of support for Ukraine. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Financial Times reports that Julie Davis will leave her post in the next few weeks and retire from the diplomatic service. She has been serving simultaneously as ambassador to Cyprus and Ukraine, but is based in Kyiv.
Apr 28 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly speculating about what will happen after the war ends and/or the fall of Putin. They predict chaos, disorderly struggles, repression, and not least their own violent elimination. ⬇️ 2/ In a since-deleted post, Maxim Kalashnikov sees gloomy prospects ahead for Russia:
Apr 28 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
1/ North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, has praised his country's soldiers who killed themselves in Russia rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces. Speaking at a memorial event, he has commended their "self-blasting". Only two North Koreans were taken alive by Ukraine. ⬇️ Image 2/ In a speech given on 27 April 2026 at the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats at the Overseas Military Operations, which commemorates the North Korean troops who died fighting against Ukraine's 2024-25 incursion into Russia, Kim spoke of their willingness to commit suicide. Image
Apr 28 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ After spending years demanding a full mobilisation, Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin has come to the realisation that it would now be pointless: Ukraine's swarms of drones are capable of destroying "any number of infantry", and Russia doesn't even have enough weapons to arm them. ⬇️ Image 2/ A reader of his Telegram channel asks:

"Question: there's increasing talk of possible mobilisation—do you think the government will take such a step? And is mobilisation necessary under the current circumstances?"

To which Girkin replies:
Apr 28 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Russian drone developers are complaining that because of bureaucratic restrictions, they are having to use firecrackers as the warheads on interceptor drones, or rely solely on kinetic methods instead of explosive warheads. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian warblogger 'UAV Developer' shows a photo of two firecrackers and asks:

"Do you know what this is?

It's the warhead of an interceptor drone."