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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
May 22 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️ AI-edited image of Igor Girkin with a chess board 2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:

"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
May 22 21 tweets 4 min read
1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️ Image 2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
May 22 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️ Image 2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:

"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
May 21 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russian warblogger Lev Vershinin wonders how Russia has managed to revert to 18th century standards of brutal military discipline, as seen in this video. How did it "become so savage in just one generation?", he asks. ⬇️
2/ The video shows a commander (almost certainly Russian, despite Vershinin's disingenuous uncertainty in the post below) savagely beating several men. They have apparently retreated ("rolled back") without authorisation from a mission or frontline position.
May 21 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ A Russian soldier says that he and his comrades were told by their commander that "a single shell is worth more than all your lives". The men were sent on suicidal missions without artillery support, without supplies, and had to scavenge for weapons on the battlefield. ⬇️ 2/ In a video explaining his decision to desert from the Russian army's 144th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 11739), 36-year-old Anton Aleksandrovich Shirshin describes his commanders as brutal and corrupt.
May 21 25 tweets 4 min read
1/ Continuing his review of how Ukraine is employing Palantir Technologies' platforms in its war with Russia, Belarusian-Russian journalist Alex Zimovsky breaks down in detail Palantir's capabilities and usages, according to public statements and reports. ⬇️ Image 2/ (For a briefer summary see the linked thread below.)
May 21 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly admitting that Russia is suffering steady attrition from endless swarms of Ukrainian drones. '13 Tactical' posts a lament about Russia's strategic dilemma as it faces escalating costs in its war in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ The Russian military volunteer Dmitry Tinkov, writing on the '13 Tactical' Telegram channel, reviews the current situation and is very unhappy at what he sees, but takes refuge in half-hearted bravado as the only solution that he sees:
May 20 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ The powerful AI-driven Palantir platform is becoming Ukraine's 'operating system' for the war with Russia. Belarusian-Russian journalist journalist Alex Zimovsky warns that it's "heading towards the point where Palantir will soon become a scary name for children in Russia." ⬇️ Image 2/ Zimovsky has been assessing how Ukraine uses Palantir. He writes:

"As of May 2026, the American company Palantir Technologies has become a key element of Ukraine's AI- and big data-based war management architecture."
May 20 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ After mobilised Russian troops were threatened with being sent to their deaths if they didn't sign contracts making them permanent soldiers, they were promised a big cash bonus if they did so. There's just one problem: they've now been scammed out of the payments. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Vault No. 8,' a serving Russian soldier, writes that the mobilised residents of the Moscow region who are serving in his unit are now complaining bitterly that they have been scammed:
May 20 10 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russia actually won the war in Ukraine in 2023 – but the Ukrainians changed the paradigm in 2025 and have turned the tables on the Russian army since. So claims RT journalist Alexander Kharchenko, who calls for Russia to change its approach fundamentally. ⬇️ Image 2/ Writing on the 'Witnesses of Bayraktar' Telegram channel, Karchenko says:

"We won! You heard right. In a war of "will and steel," the Russian military machine crushed Western proxy forces in Ukraine."
May 19 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ Over four years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian commanders have still not beaten their deadliest enemy – the cumbersome centralised bureaucracy of the Russian military. 'Two Majors' gives a flavour of how badly Russian commanders are swamped with paperwork. ⬇️ Image 2/ In an essay titled "On the Need for a Radical Overhaul of the Management System for Security Forces Involved in the Special Military Operation. Thoughts on the Topic, with Some Profanity", one of the contributors to the prominent 'Two Majors' Telegram channel writes:
May 19 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ The Ukrainians have developed AI-guided hunter-killer drones which can identify humans on the battlefield and attack them, according to a prominent Russian source. Another Russian warblogger warns that it's only the start of a full automation of war. ⬇️
2/ 'Two Majors' writes:

"❗️Attention:

The enemy has begun using upgraded tactical drones with combat artificial intelligence. There are signs of facial auto-targeting and a corresponding heat signature loaded into the drone's "brains."
May 18 10 tweets 2 min read
1/ The steadily increasing number of Ukrainian drones being flown into Russia is a major cause for concern among Russian warbloggers reflecting on the weekend's attack on Moscow. 'Older than Edda' sees Russia's air defences being progressively worn down and overwhelmed. ⬇️ Image 2/ "When assessing the prospects of a "drone war," it's important to understand that massive attacks using a couple thousand or more UAVs per night are just around the corner.
May 18 14 tweets 3 min read
1/ Could Yevgeny Prigozhin have become Russia's equivalent of Ukraine's Robert 'Madyar' Brovdi if he had been allowed to live? A provocative Russian commentary suggests that Wagner's 'civilian-controlled military' operating model could have been applied more widely by Russia. ⬇️ Image
Image
2/ 'Russian Engineer' writes:

"The answers to the questions are about what changes allowed the enemy to halt the downward trend in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was clearly evident throughout 2025."
May 17 30 tweets 5 min read
1/ Ukraine's massive penetration of Moscow's air defences is sparking a great deal of gloomy and angry commentary from Russian warbloggers. The military-technical Telegram channel 'Atomic Cherry' warns of an escalating trend of Ukrainian capabilities. ⬇️
2/ "As an interim observation, I will note that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the first time in years of the conflict, have succeeded in destroying a number of targets in the Moscow region:

1) Solnechnogorsk loading station;
2) Angstrem JSC enterprise;
3) Elma Technopark;
May 17 33 tweets 6 min read
1/ The Russian government is warning that the Ukrainians are trying to buy Russian Telegram channels that are now unprofitable after the government's blocking of the app. Russian commentators say it's an inevitable result of the government's restrictive policies. ⬇️ Image 2/ Russia has been severely restricting Telegram since the start of April, as well as making it retrospectively illegal to use Telegram for advertising. This has been a disaster for Russian businesses, for which Telegram was an essential marketing tool.
May 16 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia's anti-drone defences are said to be severely hampered by bureaucracy, such as bans on interceptor drones with explosive warheads, and legal liability, which makes mobile fire teams liable for damage caused by shot-down enemy drones. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev looks for answers to the eternal question of "where air defence?". He highlights legal and bureaucratic obstacles that he says are major obstacles to the effective protection of facilities that are being targeted by Ukrainian drones:
May 16 20 tweets 3 min read
1/ The Poseidon intercontinental nuclear torpedo is a very stupid idea, says Russian writer and blogger Maxim Kalashnikov. He lambasts it as a huge waste of Russia's resources which is likely to be highly vulnerable to interception and wholly ineffective in practice. ⬇️ Image 2/ Recent reports that the much-hyped Poseidon will soon be undergoing sea trials on a purpose-built carrier submarine have attracted a scathing response from Kalashnikov. He bluntly dismisses it as a very expensive and militarily pointless propaganda exercise:
May 15 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Russia's shrunken Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9th May has been a TV ratings flop, reflecting a lack of public interest and its exceptionally short duration. Russian broadcasters report 25% fewer people tuning in this year. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' reports that the combined rating for the Victory Day Parade broadcast across the three main broadcasters (Channel One, Rossiya 1, and NTV) this year was only 16%. This is a near-25% drop from the 20.5% rating recorded in 2025.
May 15 10 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers are mystified and angry at a recruitment advert for the Russian army posted on the Facebook-like social network VK. Unlike the usual ads, which show Russian soldiers as muscular supermen, it's attracting attention for being a lot more realistic. ⬇️ Image
Image
2/ Sergei Moskalkov, who spotted the advert, declares angrily:

"This isn't a fake, not a disinformation-like collage, but a genuine advertisement for contract service in the Russian Armed Forces.

This is a VK ad.

#fifthcolumn
#lawlessness"
May 15 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russian propagandists see their anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories about secret bioweapons being vindicated by the news that the Trump Administration is to probe previous US Administrations' funding of biological research laboratories worldwide. ⬇️ Image 2/ Since 2022, the Russians have promoted claims that the US was operating dozens of secret laboratories in Ukraine to research bioweapons, including novel diseases and so-called "combat mosquitos". Propagandists claimed that Ukraine was under US "military biological occupation".