1/ The Russian government's aggressive suppression of news about Ukraine's oil refinery drone strikes appears to be backfiring. According to Russian sources, ordinary people don't think fuel shortages are real and are blaming the government instead. ⬇️

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2074730031645859900

2/ News in Russia is tightly controlled, with most people getting their information from state TV and news outlets that are friendly towards the Kremlin. Negative news about the war in Ukraine, or even actual battlefield footage, is often absent from the state-controlled media.

1/ Russia faces a car apocalypse in the next few months due to the government's decision to allow scarce gasoline to be adulterated, a Russian warblogger warns. The low-quality gasoline will inevitably cause mass failures of vehicles across the country. ⬇️ 2/ Alexey Zhivov writes:

"In August and October, the country will be inundated with tens of thousands of video messages from car owners facing lengthy and expensive repairs. Some will be left without wheels."

1/ A Ukrainian attack on a Russian fuel convoy heading to Crimea across the Sea of Azov has likely crippled effects to supply the fuel-starved peninsula by water. Russian warbloggers are dismayed and scornful about the Russian government's tactics. ⬇️

https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/2074442458482507902

2/ Accoding to 'Important Stories', the vessels were carrying a total of 35,500 tons of fuel and other oil products:

1/ Crimea is approaching an economic collapse amidst chronic fuel and electricity shortages, according to a Russian report from the region. Even water is a problem, due to a lack of energy to power pumps and the need to use generators to extract it. ⬇️

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2074205241302454671

2/ The Russian Telegram blogger 'Lawyer in the South' reports on the current situation in Crimea and the Russian south-west:

1/ Ukraine's drone campaign is leading not only to fuel shortages but also political recriminations in Russia. The attack on the Omsk oil refinery yesterday is prompting increasingly harsh condemnations of Russia's government by Russian warbloggers. ⬇️

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2074146298693919066?s=20

2/ 'Older than Edda' is outraged at the attack's success:

"Drone debris has reached Omsk, and hostile channels are distributing a defamatory video claiming it landed and caused a fire at a plant."

1/ Why is Russia's air defence system so patchy that it regularly lets Ukrainian drones cross thousands of kilometres of Russian territory? A prominent Russian drone developer highlights a range of deficiencies in Russia's air defences. ⬇️

https://x.com/markito0171/status/2074122129428078804?s=20

2/ As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:

1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2074173451665854732

2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.

1/ Ukrainian drone manufacturer Fire Point's announcement that it has extended its FP-1 drone's range to 3,400 km (2,100 miles) is prompting alarm among Russian warbloggers. One notes that this puts many strategically vital sites in Siberia in range. ⬇️

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2073281583881032071?s=20

2/ Russian journalist Igor Dmitriev comments:

"The head of Fire Point company, Denis Stiler, claims that the upgraded FP-1 drones can fly 3,400 km. Of course, he's just hype and lying! But if it's true, the following targets will be hit:

1/ What is the strategic purpose of Ukraine's intensive and relentless drone strike campaign against Russian-occupied Crimea? A Russian analysis suggests that it's intended to make the peninsula untenable and force Putin to sue for peace. ⬇️

https://x.com/RALee85/status/2073809210786168967?s=20

2/ The Russian warblogger 'Artjockey' writes:

"Ukraine and Russia have exchanged long-range strikes: an oil refinery is on fire in Omsk, a warehouse has exploded in Kyiv, but I woke up thinking about Crimea."

1/ Frontline Russian soldiers are literally starving due to constant Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes preventing food deliveries, according to Russian accounts. In some cases, soldiers are said to be deliberately starving themselves so that they can be evacuated. ⬇️ 2/ 'Northern Channel Plus' reports:

"The food situation in the 9th Motorised Rifle Regiment is quite dire. At the positions, or more accurately, in the holes, there is a severe shortage of food. Food deliveries are made every few days, and sometimes it can take a whole week."

1/ Russian horse breeders are reporting booming sales due to the ongoing fuel crisis. Despite the expenses of owning a horse, they are now cheaper to maintain than constantly refuelling an SUV. ⬇️

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/2069534571755078052

2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports:

"About a thousand horses were saved from slaughterhouses in Russia due to the rise in gasoline prices."

1/ Nikolai Patrushev, a key adviser to Vladimir Putin, says that Russia is fighting a pan-European neo-Nazi alliance, and advocates Russian naval action in the English Channel. He warns the Baltic states of "the end of ... peaceful, carefree life and sovereignty." ⬇️ 2/ Patrushev is a former Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a former head of the FSB, and a highly influential presidential adviser. He has been spoken of as a possible successor to Putin. Like Putin, he has often shown an extremely paranoid, aggressive worldview.

1/ Russia's former chief doctor Gennady Onishchenko says that the current fuel crisis is positively beneficial for Russia: it's making the air cleaner, and city residents are becoming fitter by being deprived of their cars. Russian commentators are wondering what he's smoking. ⬇️ 2/ The comments were made by Onishchenko, an academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview on Friday with the Moscow Speaks radio station:

1/ A Russian general has been arrested by a military court after being accused of 'selling' nearly 90 soldiers to a mercenary leader who is accused of extortion, kidnapping, arms trafficking, torture, and murder. Lt Gen Alexander Dembitsky denies the accusations. ⬇️ 2/ The case involves Alexey Marushchenko, the head of the 'Yastreb' private military company, which fought in Ukraine. Yastreb's recruiters are said to have promised those who wished to enlish for military service that they would fight with Yastreb, rather than the regular army.

1/ An infamous Russian 'butcher commander' accused of sending his subordinates to their deaths to cover up his own drug-dealing has been promoted to command the 114th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. His many critics aren't impressed by this apparent favouritism. ⬇️ 2/ Colonel Igor Puzik, callsign 'Evil,' gained notoriety in 2024 after two drone operators with the callsigns 'Goodwin' and 'Ernest' publicly accused Puzik of drug trafficking in a social media video. He sent them to their deaths in an infantry assault a few days later.

1/ Soaring fuel prices in Russia are providing an unparalleled opportunity to make a quick profit through price gouging, artificial scarcity, and corruption. A Russian warblogger highlights how gas station owners and operators are exploiting the crisis. ⬇️ 2/ The Russian 'Kovpak's Detachment' Telegram channel writes:

"In the case of absolutely any shortage, tension in society is created by those who want to make money on it."

1/ Russia's deal with India to supply fuel to alleviate the current shortages involves the Indians selling fuel refined from discounted Russian oil back to Russia at full market prices. As warblogger Yuri Baranchik points out, this is extraordinarily bad value for Russia. ⬇️ 2/ Baranchik grumbles:

"Well, gentlemen, it's happened: we're witnessing the birth of a new economic reality, which can safely be called "a cycle of enrichment for the Indian oil refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens."

1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️ 2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:

1/ Russian soldiers are reported to be refusing en masse to attack across the border west of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian army units are said to have run out of fuel amidst the ongoing fuel crisis. ⬇️ 2/ The Russians are currently trying to link up two pockets on the border in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, to the east and west of the Russian village of Sereda, by attacking to the south. However, Ukrainian drones are reportedly making this unbearably bloody.

1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:

1/ Russia is preparing for its borders to be closed in the fall of 2026, according to a Russian source. If confirmed, the report potentially adds credence to indications that Russia is preparing for a fresh mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September. ⬇️ 2/ There have recently been persistent but unconfirmed claims that the Kremlin is planning to carry out a large-scale mobilisation to swamp Ukrainian forces with fresh troops in order to achieve Vladimir Putin's goal of capturing all of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.