ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
Mar 23 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russian forces have suffered a major defeat near Lyman, with the loss of numerous men and armoured vehicles. The survivors complain that the Ukrainians "fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse" and accuse a Russian general of a reckless gamble. ⬇️
2/ A frontline soldier writing in the 'Management Speaks' Telegram channel gives a furious and graphic account of what happened, in a since-deleted post that also highlights the ongoing collapse in fundraising since Telegram was blocked for many Russians:
Mar 23 29 tweets 7 min read
1/ Has Donald Trump accidentally recreated, in an even more severe form, the energy crisis that doomed Jimmy Carter's presidency? A comparison with the 1979 oil crisis shows worrying parallels with the current situation. ⬇️ Image 2/ In August 2023, former Fed chair Larry Summers (@LHSummers) noted this in the Washington Post: "It is sobering to recall that the shape of the past decade’s inflation curve almost perfectly shadows its path from 1966 to 1976 before it accelerated in the late 1970s." Image
Mar 22 22 tweets 4 min read
1/ As the Russian government's strangulation of the Internet deepens, Russian businesses are waking up to the long-feared reality of the so-called 'Cheburnet' – a walled-off national intranet for only selected companies and services. Economic disaster is forecast. ⬇️ 'Cheburnet [is] Inevitable' 2/ 'Cheburnet' (a portmenteau of 'Internet' and the iconic Soviet/Russian children's character Cheburashka) is the standard, sardonic Russian term for the government's long-held ambition to create a North Korea-style 'sovereign Internet', walled off from the outside world.
Mar 22 15 tweets 3 min read
1/ India is ripping off Russia to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars over oil shipments, according to an angry Russian commentary. India will not pay for Russian oil in anything other than Indian rupees and Indian-made goods, which Russian companies don't want. ⬇️ Indian man with an oil barrel laughs at an angry-looking Russian, while a cow deposits poop at the Russian's feet 2/ 'Political Report' writes:

"For several years, Russian officials proudly declared that Europe, by rejecting Russian oil, was only harming itself, while Russia continued to quietly sell its oil to other buyers and enrich itself."
Mar 22 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russian sources say that Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, under the command of Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, have made "significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology". Russian soldiers are facing "slaughter [like] cattle" as a result. ⬇️ Image 2/ Andrey Medvedev writes:

"We've been reporting since the fall that the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian drone manufacturers have made significant strides in UAV production and deployment technology.
Mar 21 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ Another Russian helicopter has been lost over Ukraine – the second in two days, after yesterday's shootdown of a Ka-52 by an FPV drone (seen here). The Russian warblogger 'Fighterbomber' is angry at the lack of EW protection on helicopters. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber' writes:

"It's a bad morning.

We've lost another aircraft.

The reasons are still unclear.

It's clear that everyone is now preoccupied with urgently installing anti-FPV drone electronic warfare systems on attack helicopters."
Mar 20 14 tweets 4 min read
1/ Has Iran managed to reinvent the Sound Dues – the tolls that Denmark imposed for over 400 years on ships entering the Baltic Sea? Recent ship movements suggest that rather than completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is monetising it instead. ⬇️ Image 2/ Between 1429 and 1857, Denmark levied a toll on ships passing through the Øresund, the body of water separating Denmark from Sweden. At the time, Denmark controlled both sides of the strait with the castles at Helsingør (Hamlet's Elsinore) and Helsingborg.
Mar 20 23 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russian soldiers are now divided into two 'castes', says a front-line soldier: "short-livers", who die almost immediately after being sent to the front in Ukraine, often as a punishment, and "long-livers", the privileged ones in the officer cadre and rear areas. ⬇️ Image 2/ A Russian soldier in Ukraine writes to the 'Ramsay' Telegram channel:

"Everyone today understands the brutal nature of today's war, where two "castes" of participants have effectively emerged—as in [Ivan] Efremov's novel "The Hour of the Bull"—the "KZhI" and the "DZhI."
Mar 20 19 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia faces increasing difficulties in its war in Ukraine, comments a Russian warblogger, including a build-up of Ukrainian offensive capabilities, a military system that weeds out "energetic, proactive people", and the likely loss of Trump's assistance after the midterms. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' writes that a new sense of realism is setting in among the 'turbo-patriots' who promote the Russian government's talking points on TV:

"Our TV show 'stars' are accustomed to convincing viewers that the enemy in Ukraine is almost defeated."
Mar 19 21 tweets 4 min read
1/ It's very hard to win a war with a strategy that is built on bullshit. This was one of the key lessons of World War II, thanks to the approach taken by Adolf Hitler, who launched the war in Europe. Here are some of the lessons from Hitler's Great European Bullshit War. ⬇️ Image 2/ Harry Frankfurt's famous essay "On Bullshit" draws a crucial distinction that is useful to consider here. A liar knows the truth and deliberately inverts it. A bullshitter is entirely indifferent to truth – what matters is the effect produced and the audience managed.
Mar 19 16 tweets 4 min read
1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Danish public broadcaster DR reports that officials in Denmark, France and Germany say that Donald Trump's threats to seize Greenland were taken so seriously that wide-ranging preparations were made to forcibly resist a US invasion of the Danish island.
Mar 19 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Pro-government Russians shouldn't be excessively disappointed by the Putin regime's repressive behaviour in recent months, says drone manufacturer Alexey Chadayev. He argues that that's how it's always been in Russia and nobody should expect any different. ⬇️ Image 2/ Chadayev is the Director General of Russia's Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre (NPC Ushkuynik). He comments on recent complaints by previously pro-government commentators about the blocking of Telegram and the Internet shutdowns in Moscow and St Petersburg:
Mar 19 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ While the world's eyes are elsewhere, the long-running water crisis in Donetsk is continuing. An account from Russian warblogger Dmitry Steshin highlights how residents of what had been one of Ukraine's most developed cities are living now. ⬇️ 2/ Since 2022, much of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been experiencing a severe water shortage. Cities have faced water rationing, while outlying towns and villages have often had no water at all.
Mar 18 14 tweets 3 min read
1/ Powerful interests in Russia are milking the war in Ukraine for profit and power, complains a Russian drone developer and blogger. He argues that the interests are indifferent to the loss of Russian lives and are ripping off the state defence procurement system. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'UAV Developer' writes on Telegram: "You see, they couldn't care less about our victory."
Mar 18 16 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia is suffering huge casualties in the battle for Kostiantynivka, says a Russian soldier who is fighting there. He says that 75% of his unit of poorly-trained middle-aged men was killed in a single assault, with dogs eating the skeletonised bodies of the dead nearby. ⬇️ 2/ A man named Tamerlan – likely from the North Caucasus, judging by the name – has recorded a video describing his experiences. He says:

"Today, 27 men went into the assault, and only six survived ... "
Mar 17 14 tweets 3 min read
1/ The Russian government is blocking Telegram to destroy the Russian people's social connections, says former high-level government advisor German Klimenko. The frank admission has caused outrage among Russian commentators. ⬇️ Image 2/ In an interview with 'Parliamentary Gazette', Klimenko says: "The primary function of any messenger is to create social connections. Therefore, to stop people from using a messenger, these connections must be destroyed."
Mar 17 18 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia's block on Telegram, crackdown on VPNs and mobile Internet shutdowns are threatening to destroy the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex' – a vast ecosystem of volunteer and start-up efforts that manufactures and supplies the army with drones and other equipment. ⬇️ Image 2/ The 'People's VPK', as it's known in Russia, has grown from garage workshops to well-organised industrial chains linking enthuasists, serving and ex-military personnel, and start-up companies to produce a wide variety of essential equipment for the Russian army.
Mar 17 33 tweets 6 min read
1/ The blocking of Telegram by the Russian government is a disaster for huge numbers of Russian businesses and citizens, who have now lost a key means of advertising and income. The Russian government's preferred app, MAX, lacks the features that made Telegram so essential. ⬇️ Image 2/ Russian commentators are warning that two recent developments – Telegram's blocking by the state and the decision by two regulatory bodies that all advertising on it is retrospectively illegal – threaten to cause devastating economic harm.
Mar 17 16 tweets 3 min read
1/ The Russian army is recruiting incontinent, brain-damaged men who are incapable of fighting and are literally having to be carried around. A Russian warblogger protests the waste of resources that this represents. ⬇️ Image 2/ Anastasia Kashevarova, a journalist and warblogger who has campaigned for the rights of Russian troops, highlights the ongoing problem of so-called "black recruiters" who recruit sick people into the army to meet arbitrary quotas and steal their recruitment bonuses.
Mar 16 17 tweets 3 min read
1/ Iran intends to leverage its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Gulf Arab states to accept an agreement in which Iran has set "appropriate political and security conditions", in which its security is guaranteed and US bases in the region are closed. ⬇️ Image 2/ Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, has told the London-based Arabic newspaper The New Arab (Al-Araby al-Jadeed) that Iran will keep fighting and "will not return to the conditions that prevailed before the war." Image
Mar 16 12 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia's entire strategy towards the 'Global South' is on the edge of collapse, admits the Russian writer and politician Yevgeny 'Zakhar' Prilepin. He complains that Russia's ambitious projects abroad have turned out to be little more than a bluff. ⬇️
2/ Prilepin, who represents a national-conservative perspective, writes:

"There's some extremely sad news coming out of Cuba: immersed in darkness, this country has begun negotiations with the United States.

We may be losing Cuba too."