1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:

1/ Russia is preparing for its borders to be closed in the fall of 2026, according to a Russian source. If confirmed, the report potentially adds credence to indications that Russia is preparing for a fresh mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September. ⬇️ 2/ There have recently been persistent but unconfirmed claims that the Kremlin is planning to carry out a large-scale mobilisation to swamp Ukrainian forces with fresh troops in order to achieve Vladimir Putin's goal of capturing all of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.

1/ Russian sources say that Kazakhstan will provide 50,000 tons of gasoline to Russia in July and August as 'humanitarian aid'. However, as this amounts to only slightly more than 1.6% of Russia's monthly gasoline consumption, it's little more than a token effort. ⬇️ 2/ According to Reuters, Russian sources say that Al-95 and Al-92 gasoline will be provided from the Pavlodar oil refinery and the "Condensate" oil refinery, which processes Russian raw materials. However, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy is more equivocal:

1/ Female Russian convict soldiers are complaining that the Russian military has reneged on their contracts. Instead of being pardoned after completing their military service, they say, they will now be sent back to jail. 2/ 39-year-old Lyudmila Leonidovna Poltarakova was recruited from a Russian prison along with more than 80 other women. She is part of the 370th Separate Medical Battalion (military unit 57062) of the 2nd Guards Taman Motor Rifle Division.

1/ Enormous numbers of casualties have reduced some Russian assault units to as little as 32% of their authorised strength. Leaked data shows widespread undermanning, with dozens of UAV specialists reported to have been sent to stormtrooper units to replace casualties. ⬇️ 2/ An officer of the 752nd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (military unit 34670), part of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army, has reportedly leaked manpower data from the regiment. It shows very low levels of staffing among assault units.

1/ Ukraine's attacks on Russia's space communications complexes appear intended to systematically degrade the Russian military's ability to access satellite imagery and communications. Analysts say they'll have a serious impact on military capabilities. ⬇️ 2/ Ukraine has so far carried out three attacks on Russia's space communication centers (SCCs) in the Moscow and Vladimir regions. The Dubna SCC was hit twice, on 22 and 30 June, and the Vladimir SCC in Gus-Khrustalny was hit on 24 June.

1/ Despite fuel supposedly being reserved for the emergency services, a Russian medic says that the current fuel shortage is causing a crisis for ambulances, which are now standing idle. It's not our fault, she adds, and anyway, most ambulance users are useless time-wasters. ⬇️ 2/ The 'Closed Agenda' Telegram channel publishes a video from Bryansk, which has been badly hit by the fuel shortage caused by Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries. The channel is bitterly critical of the Russian authorities:

1/ The Russian authorities are trying to address the current fuel crisis by persuading the population, improbably, that having a full tank of gas is dangerous. Russian bloggers are gleefully trashing what they see as a stunningly inept 'anti-crisis' campaign. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' commends the government's mouthpieces for highlighting a hitherto unrecognised danger:

"It turns out that filling the tank to the brim is harmful to the car's health and can lead to its breakdown. A useful tip for car enthusiasts. Good advice."

1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Ukraine's drone offensive is setting the conditions for a direct attack on Crimea, by chopping Russian forces in the south of Ukraine into isolated fragments with limited manoeuvrability caused by a lack of fuel. ⬇️ 2/ In a new message on his Telegram channel, the imprisoned Girkin writes:

1/ Ukraine is reported to be systematically targeting fluid catalytic cracking units at Russian oil refineries, aiming to destroy complex machinery that Russia can't repair itself and may take years to replace. As a result, the current fuel crisis may be a prolonged one. ⬇️ 2/ According to VChK-OGPU, the recent drone attacks on Moscow's Kapotnya oil refinery have prevented the facility shipping fuel since the striked. It will take two or three months to carry out repairs, but one of the cracking columns is irreparably damaged.

1/ Russia's fuel crisis has spread to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. Fuel prices have soared, rationing has been introduced, gas stations have kilometre-long queues, but most have no fuel to offer. Extreme heat is also causing pumps to break down en masse. ⬇️ 2/ Russians are posting videos of long queues at Kaliningrad gas stations, the vast majority of which reportedly have no fuel available. According to one reader of the ASTRA news outlet:

1/ Russia needs better propaganda, argues a prominent warblogger known for pro-Kremlin propaganda. He and other warbloggers say that the Kremlin's current PR approach to the war in Ukraine is causing the population to be complacent and disbelieving about the real situation. ⬇️ 2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"When does morale plummet? It often occurs against a backdrop of cognitive dissonance when reality collides with a poorly correlated media image. This applies to major Russian media outlets as well—take the news on federal television channels, for example."

1/ Five years into the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Russian army appears to be exhausted and in low morale. An account from a serving Russian soldier at the front line highlights the current mood of dejection and frustration with incompetent commanders. ⬇️ 2/ 'Combat Reserve' writes:

"We'll all be going home, it's just not entirely clear in what condition.

The Vostok group's officer ranks are depleted, a leg was blown off—he went home. If he's lucky, he'll get a mortgage or a certificate."

1/ In possibly the most predictable outcome ever, a Russian former soldier who made a video appealing to Vladimir Putin to meet with him to avert an army rebellion over abuses on the front line has been jailed for "propagating extremist symbols". ⬇️ 2/ As reported in the thread below, 39-year-old Alexander Lunin recorded an instantly viral video appeal to Putin last week in which he denounced the abusive behaviour of frontline commanders and asked for a meeting with Putin in Moscow.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2071157529690701976

1/ Vladimir Putin's speech to the United Russia Party Congress on 28 June has received a frosty reception online from Russian Telegram commentators and users. The most commonly used reaction emoji used by readers of related posts is a clown 🤡, while bloggers are sceptical. ⬇️ 2/ While many warbloggers have reported the speech neutrally, some are openly hostile – a sign of increasing antagonism towards the regime from parts of the warblogger community, who feel that it isn't doing enough to win the war.

1/ In another sign of worsening economic problems in Russia, a fifth of the fleets of the country's largest airlines have been taken out of operation. The idling of the aircraft has been blamed on equipment failures and extended maintenance incurred by the effect of sanctions. ⬇️ 2/ The Russian newspaper Kommersant reports that almost a third of the fleet – 93 out of 322 aircraft – is now idle at the eight largest carriers. This breaks down as follows for the top five airlines:

1/ Russia's ongoing fuel crisis will soon lead to impacts far worse than queues at gas stations, warns a Russian warblogger. A logistical crisis is predicted, accompanied by shortages of raw materials and goods, along with soaring inflation. ⬇️

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2071260051168276865

2/ Russia's huge size means that logistics drivers have to travel great distances between pickup and delivery points. With fuel increasingly being rationed, their ability to do this is being curtailed. 'Intelligence Diary' writes:

1/ President Alexander Lukashenko's unscheduled two-day meeting with Vladimir Putin is attracting interest and speculation from Russian commentators. Unusually, there has been no official comment about what was discussed, nor even a photo of the two leaders meeting. ⬇️ 2/ Alexey Zhivov notes:

"No information about the meeting between the two presidents has been released to the press. Not a single comment or photo.

1/ Is a rebellion brewing in the Russian army? A Russian soldier's video appeal to meet with Vladimir Putin to avert a mutiny over the appalling conditions on the frontline has gone viral, and has clearly struck a nerve at the Kremlin. ⬇️

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2070186478659879036?s=20

2/ Alexander Lunin, a self-proclaimed Russian Ukraine war veteran, attracted widespread attention on 25 June when he published a startling video on Russian social media in which he claims to have met with government officials who asked them to convey certain demands to Putin.

1/ The continued success of Ukraine's FP-5 'Flamingo' cruise missile in hitting targets deep inside Russia is causing frustration and anger among Russian warbloggers. They criticise Russian air defences, but concede clever Ukrainian tactics. ⬇️

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2070766954491629636?s=20

2/ The fact that Volgograd – the former Stalingrad – was hit is seen as particularly symbolic and insulting to Russia. Vladimir Romanov complains that Russia's leadership is shying away from ordering Ukraine's leaders to be killed and Kyiv nuked to deter such attacks:

1/ Russia's fuel crisis isn't just about a lack of fuel being produced by refineries. The country is in the grip of a full-blown fuel panic, with people buying far more fuel than normal to get ahead of shortages and in some cases to resell fuel for profit. ⬇️ 2/ As the 'Intelligence Diary' Telegram channel reports:

"Russia is gripped by a fuel panic.

People are buying up gasoline by the hundreds of litres. There are huge queues at gas stations. Prices are rising.

It's a real fuel scare.

A true gasoline vendetta."