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ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
ChrisO_wiki
@ChrisO_wiki
Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ
Jul 16 • 30 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Russian warbloggers are wondering how it was possible for Ukraine to destroy the Russian border patrol ship Izumrud while it was at anchor. The vessel was reportedly hit by two Ukrainian Sargan-3000 uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). ⬇️
2/ The attack is said to have caused several "200 and 300" (deaths and injuries). The big question, as 'Informant' comments, is "How the unmanned hull craft reached the ship at its berth."
Jul 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Ukraine's dominance of the 'lower sky' and its widespread use of 'waiting drones' has made large-scale Russian vehicle assaults virtually impossible. A Russian video shows numerous Ukrainian drones sitting on a road, waiting to carry out attacks on Russian forces. ⬇️ 2/ Commenting on the video, the Russian medical warblogger 'Visiting Doc' dedicates it "to fans of tank breakthroughs and brutal assaults" and comments: "Low-altitude superiority is one of the main reasons why evacuation becomes a nearly impossible task."
Jul 15 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Crypto scammers have been targeting UK X users for the past few months with hundreds of scam adverts showing AI pictures of UK political and media figures. However, in the latest campaign, they've inadvertently given away that they're almost certainly Russians or Ukrainians. Image 2/ The campaign always involves AI-generated pictures of people like @Nigel_Farage and Emily @maitlis in situations of conflict and tension, with a cryptic subject lines. They're posted from blue-tick accounts ostensibly located around the world, but using VPNs.
Jul 15 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Ukraine's landing last week of an armed unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) on the occupied Kinburn Spit is being viewed with concern by Russian warbloggers. They warn that it shows Ukraine overtaking Russia technologically. ⬇️
2/ 'Archangel of Special Forces' writes with evident dismay:

"The "troublemakers," who previously gained notoriety for hanging a cloth on the Kinburn Peninsula using a drone and claiming control, have posted footage showing the use of an unmanned robotic vehicle (URV)."
Jul 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Officials in the southwestern Russian city of Stavropol have been told to ditch their cars amidst the ongoing fuel shortage, and use bicycles instead. The move is the latest Russian attempt to save increasingly scarce fuel after Ukraine's destruction of Russian refineries. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Governor of Stavropol, Vladimir Vladimirov, has urged officials to switch to bicycles to save fuel. He said:

"Let's start saving by ourselves. Dear heads [of departments], I urge you all. Within the city, you can get around on foot or by bicycle."
Jul 14 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Ukraine's relentless drone campaign in the Sea of Azov and Crimea is having increasingly serious effects on Russian military operations and daily life. A gloomy report from the region highlights the impacts of the campaign.
2/ 'Two Majors' writes:

"Over a week ago, the enemy intensified UAV attacks in Russia's internal waters of the Sea of ​​Azov—an area where Russia’s sovereignty fully applies, meaning these events must legally be viewed as attacks on any part of our country's land territory.
Jul 14 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Russian military logistics in Ukraine are breaking down due to Ukrainian drone attacks and a critical lack of fuel for 'humanitarian aid' volunteers. This is likely to have a severe effect on the front line, because troops in the field depend heavily on donated supplies. ⬇️ Image 2/ The fuel shortages currently affecting Russia are having a dire effect on volunteer groups. The Russian MOD does not provide soldiers with much more than the basics, leaving volunteers to provide everything from clothes to drones to body bags.
Jul 11 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The frequently shifting goals of the war in Ukraine have presented a consistent problem with motivating Russian soldiers to fight. One Russian warblogger has a modest proposal: reframe the war around the concept that "Kyiv must be destroyed." ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian government has advanced several objectives for the war in Ukraine, none of which have been achieved. They include 'denazification' (i.e. removing the democratically elected Ukrainian government), demilitarisation, and securing Russia's conquests in Ukraine.
Jul 11 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️ Image 2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
Jul 11 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
Jul 10 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️ Image 2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised. Image
Jul 10 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️ Image 2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
Jul 10 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
Jul 10 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
Jul 10 • 29 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️ Image 2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
Jul 9 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️ Image 2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
Jul 9 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has developed rapidly and with increasing nationwide severity. A Russian commentary notes that the Russian government only has limited options for dealing with fuel shortages, but these are being overtaken by a fast-growing black market in fuel. ⬇️ AI-generated image of a Russian fuel black marketeer 2/ 'Federation Towers' highlights how quickly Russia has been plunged into a full-scale fuel crisis:

"The Russian fuel market held up smoothly for all four years of the Special Military Operation."
Jul 9 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ It's logistically impossible for Russia to protect all of its strategic sites with its limited number of missile-based air defence systems, warns a Russian warblogger. Huge sites and obscured visibility requires many such systems but reduces the effectiveness of each. ⬇️ Image 2/ 'Military Informant' highlights the practical difficulties of using SAM systems to provide adequate protection:

"When discussing the protection of rear-line facilities from cruise missile attacks, one thing is often forgotten."
Jul 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ In a stark illustration of the impact of Ukraine's drone strike campaign against Russian refineries, videos from occupied Mariupol show vehicles all but absent from the streets, with burned-out trucks visible along the roads. A Russian commentary highlights the crisis. ⬇️
2/ 'Novorossiya Militia Reports' writes:

"If anyone is monitoring the situation, they should know that Ukraine is delivering an average of two [destroyed] refineries to us per day."
Jul 8 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ The Russian government's aggressive suppression of news about Ukraine's oil refinery drone strikes appears to be backfiring. According to Russian sources, ordinary people don't think fuel shortages are real and are blaming the government instead. ⬇️
2/ News in Russia is tightly controlled, with most people getting their information from state TV and news outlets that are friendly towards the Kremlin. Negative news about the war in Ukraine, or even actual battlefield footage, is often absent from the state-controlled media.
Jul 8 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Russia faces a car apocalypse in the next few months due to the government's decision to allow scarce gasoline to be adulterated, a Russian warblogger warns. The low-quality gasoline will inevitably cause mass failures of vehicles across the country. ⬇️ Image 2/ Alexey Zhivov writes:

"In August and October, the country will be inundated with tens of thousands of video messages from car owners facing lengthy and expensive repairs. Some will be left without wheels."