Thread by @ProfessorPape

Three major misunderstandings are distorting the Iran War
These three represent lingering hopes for a quick victory
But hoping Iran will bail us out is not a strategy
This war is entering a long strategic game—and we need to see how it actually works

Misunderstanding #1: “The war is mainly about Iran’s military capabilities”
No. The war right now is a race
A race between the rising global price of oil and Iran’s shrinking supply of drones
The U.S. can destroy drones, but fast enough to head off months of $120 p/b oil?
If oil prices rise faster than Iran’s drone arsenal falls, Iran wins the race
That’s Iran’s leverage

Misunderstanding #2: “This war will end quickly”
Washington says the conflict could end in weeks
But war is a two-actor game
Iran has no incentive to reopen Hormuz before U.S. politics turns toxic
By summer, the war becomes a political crisis in Washington
That’s Iran’s timing

Misunderstanding #3: “Iran is mainly aiming for civilian casualties”
No. That misses the real strategy
Iran is targeting the economic foundations of the Gulf and Israel
Horizontal escalation threatens the pillars of the GCC economy—
oil exports, global trade flows, and the luxury cities
Drones/cluster munitions impose constant insecurity inside Israel
The goal isn’t mass casualties
The goal is to drive capital out of the Gulf and people out of Israel
That’s long-war economic warfare

Put the three dynamics together:
• An economic race
• Political timing
• Long-war economic coercion
And the real trajectory of this war comes into focus—and how Trump fell into the Escalation Trap
I write more about this escalation dynamic at my Substack, The Escalation Trap