This isn’t a price spike anymore. It’s shortages

Most analysts are still talking about prices

That’s already outdated

We are entering a much more dangerous phase Ten days ago, I warned this was coming.

Now it’s visible:
– Jet fuel shortages in Europe
– Plastics disruptions in South Korea
– Early supply gaps across Asia

This is not isolated-- It’s the start of a global shift

The ceasefire isn’t “breaking down"

It’s doing exactly what zero-sum conflicts do:
revealing the next phase of war

What happens in the next 72 hours won’t be random.
It will follow a pattern

Here’s the framework almost no one is using This is not a misunderstanding.

It’s a zero-sum collision of interests:

• Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz
• It cannot both keep and give up nuclear capability

And the U.S. cannot accept either without losing power

That’s why the ceasefire was always temporary

This morning on Morning Joe, something subtle but profound happened

For an hour, the discussion wasn’t whether Iran had been weakened

It was about the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations, and what happens now that Iran can’t be ignored

That’s a shift The world is beginning to treat Iran not as a problem to be solved—

but as a power to be reckoned with

That’s how new power centers emerge

The Israel–Lebanon truce isn’t just a ceasefire.

It’s a signal for the future

For the first time in decades, the United States is actively constraining Israel militarily in the middle of a war

That doesn’t happen without a major shift in power What changed?

The Iran war
And specifically: control over the Strait of Hormuz

That gave Iran something new—
systemic leverage over the global economy

I’ve studied 30 years of U.S. wars and economic coercion
After hearing JD Vance explain why talks collapsed, one thing is clear:
This war is now on a path to U.S. ground troops inside Iran This was never mainly about strikes
It’s about uranium:
• ~1,000 lbs at 60% enrichment
• ~10,000 lbs at lower levels
Enough for 10–16 nuclear weapons

Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods
After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don’t say this lightly:
--Not just higher prices
--Shortages.
Markets are not ready for this Everyone is still talking about oil prices
That’s already outdated
--This is no longer a price shock
--It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock

The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.”

It’s not.

It’s a revelation:
The U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome.
That’s a structural shift in power. Over 40 days, the U.S. escalated step by step:
more strikes, more targets, more threats.
Each time, the expectation was compliance.

Each time, the result was more instability.

This is bombing to lose, not bombing to win.

A 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war just took effect.
No strikes. No missiles. Hormuz open—with Iranian cooperation.
This is a good day—for 92 million Iranians, the Gulf, the global economy, and Americans.

But don’t mistake pause for resolution. Ceasefires in active escalation cycles fail more often than they hold.
--Israel hasn’t agreed.
-- Forces are still deployed.
-- Capabilities are intact.
This isn’t de-escalation.
It’s a temporary interruption.

Why Trump’s Threat to Bomb Iran’s Power Grid Is So Dangerous
This isn’t coercion.
It’s escalation—with predictable failure. I spent years working with the U.S. Air Force on strategic bombing theory.

We studied how to destroy electric grids.
Not just tactically—but systematically.

What follows is the part never published—
but determines whether it works or fails.

In my new piece in The New York Times today, I argue the Iran war has reached a point Washington still refuses to say out loud:

either the U.S. escalates to a ground war—or Iran emerges as a new center of global power.

Think about—what stops this future?
nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opi… This is not about personalities

It’s a structural problem building since 2002, when Iran’s nuclear program shifted the conflict from political to military

Once large-scale strikes begin, escalation follows a logic of its own

Tonight’s speech by Donald Trump was framed as “mission nearly complete.”
But listen carefully — the substance points the other way:
This is not de-escalation. It’s controlled escalation. 1) He claims victory — while extending the war
Says “core objectives” are nearly done
Says the war could continue 2–3 more weeks
Translation:
Victory rhetoric + no clear end date = war continuation

Many are asking what Trump might say about NATO tonight.

The real issue isn’t whether the U.S. formally leaves NATO.

It’s this:

NATO is already dead
We are now just writing its obituary Most people misunderstand what NATO actually is

It is not just a political alliance

NATO is an integrated military command structure—where a U.S. general (SACEUR) can direct allied forces in wartime

That only works if allies trust U.S. leadership

Iran isn’t just negotiating with the U.S.
It’s choosing which America to negotiate with
And that tells you more about where this war is going than anything Trump has said Weak states don’t fight strong states head-on.
They do something smarter:
They exploit divisions inside them.
That’s how you offset power you can’t match.

Three major misunderstandings are distorting the Iran War
These three represent lingering hopes for a quick victory
But hoping Iran will bail us out is not a strategy
This war is entering a long strategic game—and we need to see how it actually works Misunderstanding #1: “The war is mainly about Iran’s military capabilities”
No. The war right now is a race
A race between the rising global price of oil and Iran’s shrinking supply of drones
The U.S. can destroy drones, but fast enough to head off months of $120 p/b oil?
If oil prices rise faster than Iran’s drone arsenal falls, Iran wins the race
That’s Iran’s leverage

A hard truth about the Iran war is becoming clear:
The U.S. still has no reliable way to stop Iran’s drone warfare
That operational gap is not just tactical
It’s the mechanism allowing the conflict to spread beyond Iran itself Drones are cheap, scalable, and difficult to intercept.
That allows Iran to expand pressure horizontally — across shipping, energy infrastructure, and regional partners
The conflict spreads without requiring conventional battlefield victories

The Iran war is already following a pattern seen in many modern conflicts.

Early military success. Then escalation. Then a widening war no one originally planned.

Across history, the same strategic mechanics keep appearing.

Here are five concepts that explain how wars like this expand. 1. The Escalation Trap

Wars often begin with tactical success.

Targets are destroyed. Leaders killed. Infrastructure damaged.

But the opponent does not concede politically.

Instead of reconsidering strategy, leaders escalate.

The result:

tactical success → strategic failure → expanded war.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader may make this war more dangerous than the one he replaces.

History shows that when leaders are killed at the start of conflicts, their successors often escalate to prove authority.

It’s a pattern I call the Harder Successor Problem.

A thread. When an enemy kills a leader, the successor inherits a problem:

They must prove they are strong enough to rule.

Backing down early can look like weakness inside the regime and to rivals watching closely.

So escalation often becomes politically necessary.

The Air Power Illusion

Full essay: "Why Bombs Break Buildings, Not Regimes": escalationtrap.substack.com/p/the-air-powe…

Across more than a century of war, one pattern stands out:

No regime in modern history has fallen solely because it was bombed from the air.

Cities burn. Infrastructure collapses. Leaders are targeted. But political power survives.

Bombs break buildings. They do not, by themselves, break regimes. This thread explains why Air power has always carried a seductive promise:

Strike leadership → cripple infrastructure → paralyze command → trigger political collapse.

The machinery evolves. The faith remains. The record tells a harder story.

Strategic bombing has destroyed armies and shattered cities. It has not, by itself, toppled functioning regimes. Let's go deeper

Air power has a place in war. But in the Iran campaign, it is being misapplied as a strategy for regime change.
That’s the core conclusion from my deep dive with @IanProud on the Trump Tangled in the Smart Bomb Trap podcast. We agree: history is clear — air power can kill infrastructure and leaders, but it has never produced reliable strategic regime change on its own. Not in Libya. Not in Iraq. Not in Vietnam.
The U.S. experience with unilateral aerial coercion simply doesn’t support the idea that bombs alone restructure societies.

Operation Epic Fury is now the most intense sustained air campaign since Desert Storm vs Iraq in 1991.

~1,000 sorties per day.

But scale alone does not determine strategic outcome.

The real question is structure of escalation. This thread is The Escalation Ledger -- Iran, Day 3 Epic Fury is not calibrated coercion.

It is industrial-scale precision destruction.

Command nodes. Air bases. Missile launchers. Naval facilities. Visible damage everywhere.

But air campaigns succeed only when destruction compounds against systems that cannot adapt.

This morning I was asked on Boston radio about the US–Israel strikes on Iran.

Here is the strategic reality most people are missing:

Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change.

I don’t mean rarely.

I mean NEVER. For over a century, leaders have believed bombing can fracture regimes from the sky.

Strike leadership. Shock the system. Trigger collapse.

History says otherwise.

What usually happens?

The regime hardens.
Nationalism rises.
Retaliation brews.