Thread by @clement_molin

3 weeks have now passed following the start of the US 🇺🇸-Israeli 🇮🇱 operation to topple the regime in Iran 🇮🇷

🔸The Islamic regime is still holding
🔸The Hormuz Strait is closed
🔸Iran continues to retaliate
🔸No new protest in Iran
🔸US/ISR operations continue

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️

Here are the main objectives of the operation:

🔸Create the conditions for regime change in Tehran
🔸Destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs
🔸End attacks against the United States and Israel in the region (Iran and its proxies)

Here are Iran's main objectives in its retaliation:

🔸To ensure the regime's survival and elevate the dead to the status of martyrs
🔸To prevent regime change
🔸To create chaos throughout the region, thereby triggering an economic crisis that will ultimately end the war.

Here are the number of strikes from each side:

🔸United States 🇺🇸/Israel 🇮🇱 ~15,000 (50/50) + ~2,000 in Lebanon 🇱🇧
🔸Iran 🇮🇷 ~3,000
🔸Hezbollah 🟨 ~2,000
🔸Houthis 🇾🇪 0 (not yet join but could soon enter the war)
🔸Pro Iran militias in Iraq : dozen strikes

All the countries affected by the war

🔹Israel 🇮🇱
🔹Qatar 🇶🇦
🔹Bahrain 🇧🇭
🔹United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪
🔹Kuwait🇰🇼
🔹Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
🔹Jordan 🇯🇴
🔹🔸Iraq 🇮🇶
🔹Cyprus 🇨🇾 (indirectly)
🔹Oman 🇴🇲
🔹Syria 🇸🇾 (indirectly)
🔹Türkiye 🇹🇷
🔹Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
🔹United States 🇺🇸 (Bases)
🔹France 🇫🇷 (Bases)
🔹Italy 🇮🇹 (Bases)
🔹United Kingdom 🇬🇧 (Bases)
🔸Iran 🇮🇷
🔹🔸Lebanon 🇱🇧

Iranian missiles statistics (from @MarioLeb79) :

Stable number of drones and missiles launched at various targets, mainly Gulf countries and Israel.

Hormuz Strait status :

The strait remains closed, more than 20 ships have been attacked, only ships going to Iranian terminals are allowed to cross.

The strait has not been mined yet, no more than 5 ships are crossing daily. Most of the ressources are going to Asia...

MAP 1 - Iran

Map showing all the attacked locations inside Iran.

-> IRCG bases
-> Command/leadership
-> Naval bases, Navy
-> Nuclear facilities
-> Balistic launchers, factories
-> SAM, aircrafts, drones, airbases
-> Other targets (munitions, checkpoints, reaserch centers...)

MAP 2 - US/Israeli area of operations

-> US operating from aircraft carrier Lincoln, from various undisclosed airbases and from the US with a lot of refueling tankers.
-> ISR operating above Syria, Iraq and Northern/Western Iran, with refueling operations above Syria and Iraq.

MAP 3 - Bombing in Lebanon

Israeli Air Force is targeting Hezbollah positions across Lebanon, supporting a ground invasion in the southern part of the country, south of the Litani river.

MAP 4 - Iranian retaliation across the Middle East

MAP 5 - Short animation of the strikes against oil/gas infastructure in the region from @nytimes

Today, Iran reportedly launched a missile at Diego Garcia US base in the Indian Ocean, despite none of its known missile being able to reach this area.

There are 2 explanations :

🔸Iran developed a secret long range missile program

🔸Or... the missiles used are known ones which could have been modified. A Khorramshahr missile with less explosive inside can go farther.

Nothing as well indicates the missiles reached the bases, they were directed to it. (map from Tsahal, some erros)

This morning, the launch of missiles from underwater was observed close to Northern Cyprus, this could be from a US submarine.

US and Israeli strikes continue across Iran, with additionnal strikes against the nuclear program and in the Hormuz area.

Today strikes happened around the Dezful airbase in western Iran.

Tonight, multiple videos are showing an Iranian strike in southern Israel. Media said it was targeting the Dimona nuclear facility in southern Israel.

In fact, the strike occured around 20km from the power plant, slightly off the reported target.

The US aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is heading back to the Mediterranean Sea after the fire onboard that lasted 30 hours.

Another aircraft carrier and 2 landing ships are expected to arrive next month in the region.

Small analysis :

🔸Iran still has retaliation capacities
🔸The US/Israeli air supremacy is total in high altitude but more contested by Iranian SAMs in lower altitude (Reaper downed, F35 targeted...)
🔸I believe the war will continue longer than many expected. The regime showed strong resistance despite being serverly hit everyday
🔸The Gulf countries and Hormuz Strait situation are the most worrying, especially for the regional stability and the global market
🔸The Houthis card has not yet been played and it could have significant impact if it was to be used to close the Bab El Mandeb Strait.
🔸The main question that remains is wether the iranian population will at some point try to take over the power or if the regime will remain powerful and coordinated enough to hold the internal situation.

Thank you all for following this new analysis !