1/ Russia's Telegram ban and Internet blocks risk having a counter-productive effect similar to Prohibition in the US a century ago, warn Russian commentators – driving people to acts of civic resistance and pushing them into ideologically unsound spaces. ⬇️
2/ Sergey Kolyashnikov notes how the alcohol ban imposed on the US during Prohibition backfired by turning millions of people into lawbreakers and spurring the growth of the Italian mafia and others seeking to bypass the ban for profit. He sees a similar phenomenon now in Russia:
3/ "Consider the market potential for all sorts of blocking bypass tools. Especially since a significant portion of the audience was already using them to access YouTube and Instagram.
4/ "We've suddenly created a multi-billion dollar market, the main goal of which is to provide Russians with access to an environment where the state has no influence. In the case of Telegram, 'no longer.'
5/ "One of the most discussed topics in large chat forums is "what VPN do you use?" People cite examples, plans, and settings. More and more powerful solutions are emerging every day. This morning, for example, I learned about two.
6/ "And that's not counting those that people in large companies or with the necessary skills are creating for themselves, colleagues, and loved ones.
Millions of lawbreakers and even more willing to break the law have suddenly appeared in the country.
7/ "As I've said many times, this whole Telegram blocking scheme looks far more like the work of US and UK agents of influence than a domestic Russian need.
8/ "Why are the US and UK doing this? It's in preparation for a future transition to satellite networks, which Russia will not control at all.
In October 2025, SpaceX delivered the 10,000th satellite of the Starlink internet system into low-Earth orbit.
9/ "On March 14, 2026, SpaceX began transferring part of the satellite constellation to lower Earth orbit. Reducing the distance between satellites and ground clients is intended to reduce latency and increase data transfer speeds.
10/ "As of February 2026, YouTube's monthly audience worldwide was over 2.7 billion. Instagram has 3 billion monthly active users. Telegram has over 1 billion.
The next step is further reduction in the cost of satellite dishes and satellite internet in every cell phone.
11/ "Attempts to replace all this with an informational equivalent of the Soviet newspaper Pravda are doomed to failure. Because technological races are won in competition, not locked away in a closet."
12/ 'Russian Engineer' sees the technological momentum moving against the Russian government's blocks and bans:
"According to open sources, the market for block circumvention methods involved at least 20 million users, with an annual volume of at least 100 billion rubles."
13/ "It's maintained by hundreds of top specialists with unlimited salaries, meaning they get whatever they can earn.
14/ "And thanks to the incompetence of those responsible for promoting the national messenger [the state-sponsored MAX app], many people who never intended to resort to block circumvention methods began to resort to them.
15/ "A side effect of this was that people returned to other banned social networks and foreign agents. In other words, the incompetence of the promotional method has pushed many Russian citizens into an information field dominated by their enemies. But that's just an aside.
16/ "The key question now is this: if the market has grown two to three times, which is a minimum, that's 200-300 billion rubles working against billions in budget funds,…
17/ …and professionals with unlimited salaries are battling it out with government specialists who earn at the lower end of the market. That's easily 10-20 times more.
So, if you look at it from this perspective, who will win? Personally, the answer is obvious.
18/ "Oh, and I'll add another cherry on top. TG has fewer than a hundred key specialists. Their salaries are well over 10 million rubles a month [$123,000]. So, outbidding them is practically impossible.
19/ "Moreover, they are paid this much for their professionalism, and the best specialists have been selected, those who already showed their mettle in 2018 [during the earlier attempted ban on Telegram]. And those who haven't even begun to seriously compete yet.
20/ "As for options, what if we combat circumvention by criminalising VPNs? China has already done that. And according to various estimates, 60 to 80% of the population still uses them.
21/ "Simply because a law that directly threatens more than half the population won't work. Instead, it will encourage disregard for the law and legal nihilism. A dubious success.
22/ "The bottom line is that our citizens are being rapidly trained in methods to circumvent blockages, increasing social tension, destroying the country's positive image as a leading digital economy, demonstrating the utter incompetence of those implementing them, …
23/ …and all this shortly before the State Duma elections.
24/ "Combined with a host of other bans and a lack of communication with the public to even attempt to explain in a humane manner the purpose of all this, it's simply impossible to find ways to interpret this in a way that would benefit the country." /end
Sources:
🔹 t.me/SergeyKolyasni…
🔹 t.me/rusengineer/94…
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