the new Expecting Goals newsletter continues my studies of the set piece revolution in the Premier League
Corner kicks and long throws have accounted for nearly 1 in 4 of PL goals scored this season
How did this happen?
There are two clear innovators -- Brentford and Arsenal
in the early 2010s, managers including Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis and Mick McCarthy tried to optimize their corner kicks with deliveries to the six yard box, but they did not manage to solve the mystery and their teams' corner kick results were merely ~average
we can see from a comparison of their tactics with Arsenal and several of this season's top teams that they are unable to target the area 3-4 yards from goal, likely because they did not successfully impede the keeper -- there was no meat wall it seems
on throw-ins we find the Rory Delap Trap
Stoke City were a below average team at scoring from throw-ins despite Delap's incredible arms. Instead of developing throw-in specific routines, they played for easily saved direct headers, scoring just 2 of 55 over three seasons
It took Brentford's tactics developed specifically for throw-ins to realize the value of these opportunities
over the longer history of the Premier League we can see that other teams, especially in the early 2010s, were trying to maximize their corner kicks with deliveries very close to goal. But Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis and Mick McCarthy did not solve the puzzle here
read the whole thing!
open.substack.com/pub/expectingg…
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