Thread by @clement_molin

For the first time, in march 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more long range drones into russian 🇷🇺 territory than Russia launched drones into Ukraine

Last night, Ukraine launched at least 283 drones south, mainly targeting the Novorossiisk port and hit a frigate.

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After Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil terminals in Leningrad and Karelia oblast have been hit 5 days in a row last week, Ukraine attacked the Novorossiisk oil terminal.

A picture widely shared last night showed the port ablase, with intense anti-air activity.

For months and even years, Ukraine's indigenous long range drone and missile program has been improving.

Ukraine first launched 1 000 drones into Russia is august 2024, 3 000 in July 2025 and 7 000 in march 2026 !

These numbers are made up with official claims from russian MOD (which we have to take into account, but still reliable, we are using same official data for Ukraine).

Sources for the gathering of informations on russian side is @NedSnow2019 and for ukrainian ones @M0nstas.

Last night, at least 2 drones hit the Admiral Grigorovitch frigate in the Novorossiisk port.

This is significant since we know these strikes are supported by various sea drones that have now difficulties to enter ports (Russia is blocking the entrances).

Ukrainian strikes for the past month have been systematically hitting oil export terminals, pipelines and refineries.

This is aimed to prevent Russia from using the war in Iran to finance its war on Ukraine.

Thanks to the good tools made by @M0nstas (definitely worth following) based on @AndrewPerpetua map, we can see here the location of more than 200 long range strikes inside Russia and occupied Ukraine in march 2026.

The number of geolocated long range strikes has increased in march, and this mainly counts strikes filmed by the drones themselves.

Here are some of the locations of these long range drone strikes, mainly into occupied territories, with FP1 and FP2 drones.

After the previous week strikes against Ust-Luga and Primorsk port, more1/3 of the storage capacities have been hit.

Ukraine now turned south and is still hitting various other reffineries.

Source : @oko_gora_tg

Why are these strikes successful ?

-Ukraine has developped its most recent drone and missile program
-This new FP-1 -> 9 program is very good
-Ukraine is using naval drones to launch drones
-Russian air-defense have been largely hit recently

What about russian drone and missile strikes ?

Drones are more and more numerous, despite a recent decrease. For now 8 months, we hae around 5 500 Shahed, Geran and Gerbera drones launched deep into Ukraine.

Missile strikes remain very unpredictable. Russia is firing missiles around 5 times a month into Ukraine, into single concentrated strikes.

Those strikes follow the production of new missiles. In general, 100 to 200 missiles are fired monthly, Ukraine obviously needs more AD.

On the drone side, few drones are getting through. More drones implies more chances to get through, especially when swarms are used.

Every month, around 600 drones hit their targets, which is still very high, a lot of debris are also falling.

In terms of proportion, after a more difficult period, more and more drones are now being destroyed, with 90% ! in march.

Another good account following these trends is @ShahedTracker. Here you can see the february strikes, with 129 per day on average and 37% of those are decoy.

Here are the reported impacts mapped by @ShahedTracker in February 2026.

Here is their map of all long range drone an missiles strikes for the past 10 months !

Zooms for East, North and South.

Russian strikes are concentrating on electricty, energy and railway networks, as well as civilian, military infanstructure and factories.

Ukrainian strikes are hitting oil and gas economy, factories, ammunition bases and ports.

Thanks for following, we are finishing this thread with a small analysis of why Shahed drones numbers are stagnating and even slowly decreasing :