Trump spent his first year back in office imposing tariffs on Europe, threatening to withdraw US troops, and flirting with NATO exit. Europe wants to reduce its dependence on Washington.
But the US accounts for over 20% of European exports — Jacob Kirkegaard, Foreign Affairs. 1/
Two-thirds of Europe's cloud market runs on Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Three quarters of European firms run on US software.
Visa and Mastercard handle roughly two-thirds of card transactions in the euro area. 2/
US LNG imports quadrupled between 2022 and 2025 to replace Russian gas.
The EU has committed to ending all Russian gas imports by 2027. If Iran's strikes on Qatar's LNG facilities cause lasting damage, most of Europe's LNG will need to come from the US. 3/
The Turnberry trade agreement locks in a 15% cap on US tariffs on European goods but requires Europe to buy more American LNG.
When the EU Parliament was considering ratification, the US ambassador warned: "I don't know what will happen to energy if they don't go forward." 4/
Europe has signed free trade deals with Australia, India, Indonesia, and Mercosur — over two billion consumers.
It won't close the gap. EU exports to the US total $920 billion annually. Exports to all four new partners combined: around $168 billion. 5/
On tech, the European Commission is preparing a sovereignty package this spring.
France has ordered public servants off Zoom and Microsoft Teams. But European alternatives are more expensive and less integrated. The digital euro won't be ready until the end of the decade. 6/
Kirkegaard: Europe is not simply trapped — it is making a choice. US products are cheaper, better, and more familiar.
European governments cannot change that logic anytime soon. The one area where Europe is reducing dependence is defense — and that is alongside Ukraine. 7X
Source: `foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
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