"Prepare for a melt-up"
"God candle incoming"
Seeing more bull takes starting to appear on the timeline.
Let's take a look at the data to see if it lines up.
Quick 🧵👇
Spot Volumes: currently at their weakest levels of the bear market.
Back to levels not seen since Sept. '23
Perpetual Futures Funding Rates: barely any signs of "risk-on" here.
In fact, funding rates on positive days so far in 2026 have been lower, on average, than in 2022.
Furthermore, 30% of trading days have had negative funding so far in 2026. In 2022, it was 29.9%.
Perpetual Futures Open Interest: slight uptick off the lows from early March.
No clear sign of "risk-on"
ETF Flows: no sign of a durable shift in regime here
Solana Stablecoin Velocity: back to late '23 levels
Solana bonding curve revenues: currently at levels last seen in Sept. '24
TL;DR: Short-term moves are anyone's guess. But we're not seeing any signs of a durable shift in onchain behavior. Not yet, anyway.
We shared long-form views with readers on Wednesday with the "big picture setup" as well as some BTC market structure data: thedefireport.io/research/bulls…
Sign up for TDR Pro (30 days free): thedefireport.io/friends
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