Thread by @Kasparov63

Hungary is the fight for the future of Europe. The election promises a change of power, but the Orbán regime and its supporters in the Kremlin will not go quietly. The EU cannot stand idly by. My op-ed in @zeitonline: zeit.de/politik/auslan…

With an aggressive Russia and a complicit America, what will Europe do to protect its values and interests? Is it willing to take on the role of leader of the free world, or will it stand by and watch events unfold, even as they move from its doorstep to squarely at home?

The war in Ukraine has forced European politicians to think pragmatically. For all my emphasis on values, this is good; if moral conviction isn't enough to get Europe’s leaders to intervene on behalf of freedom, but imminent threat of war & democratic collapse will, so be it.

The Hungarian people will pay little attention to what Vance says, but the visit may not be for them. Based on my experience living under Russian authoritarianism, speeches like Vance's can send a powerful message to the army and police, who might be given an explicit order by the government to administer force in the case of any confrontation. If Vance's full-throated endorsement of Orbán is read as giving the security services a green light to act harshly in the case of a disputed election, then America could tip the scales in favor of the regime, potentially outweighing any European sanctions. The willingness to use force is a hallmark of every authoritarian. zeit.de/politik/auslan…

I will point out preemptively that one of the autocrat's greatest allies is the unwillingness of ordinary people to believe they will do what they keep saying they want to do. "He would never..." Yes, he would, and much more. When you care only for yourself, there are no limits.