1/ Russia's Black Sea Fleet is trapped and largely neutralised, according to gloomy commentaries from Russian warbloggers. Ukraine's recent attack on its ships anchored at Novorossiysk show that its situation is a "catastrophic failure". ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian frigate at anchor at Novorossiysk on April 6th has been the subject of commentary from several Russian warbloggers, who have noted that the drones used were clearly under manual control for their terminal guidance. 'Rybar' writes:
3/ "An important point is that the Ukrainian side had objective control over the final stretch of the strike thanks to Starlink. This was most likely achieved by relaying a signal from another UAV, which was located outside the Krasnodar Krai territorial waters at the time...
4/ "The attack on the base was entirely expected. The ships are stationed in a single location, easily accessible by Ukrainian UAVs, and such attempts were certain to occur sooner or later. This once again raises the question of the wisdom of this "toothless tactic."
5/ "The principle of "if we're too active, more will come" doesn't work and could lead to a situation where we won't have any options at all in the future. It's surprising that this needs to be explained in the Navy's case in the fifth year of the Special Military Operation."
6/ Rybar highlights a commentary by @covertshores on the catastrophic nature of the fleet's situation:
7/ "On paper, the fleet dominates in terms of the number and presence of large ships, but Ukrainian forces using unmanned surface vessels have seized control of a significant portion of the waters.
8/ "After the evacuation from Sevastopol, Novorossiysk became the main base. This manoeuvre allowed the ships to be protected from attacks by USVs.
9/ "But that’s where it ends: the Black Sea Fleet’s combat ships almost never leave their basing point, which was bound to backfire sooner or later as Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes intensified.
10/ "The 5 April 2026, attack on a Project 11356M frigate, although not entirely successful for the enemy and with serious damage avoided, highlights the vulnerability of ships and submarines at the pier wall.
11/ "Of course, frigates can launch Kalibr missiles from the pier wall, but that's the limit of their capabilities. And if such drone strikes continue, they won't have room to manoeuvre (and such raids will happen, especially with long-range drones and Starlink guidance).
12/ "There's nowhere to escape from Novorossiysk. The ports of Sochi and Ochamchire are small, and without adapting to the threat, the fleet remains a juicy target.
13/ "And the key problem here is that some high-ranking officials aren't even trying to grasp the scale of the potential consequences."
14/ 'Older than Edda' questions why "the Black Sea Fleet, to put it mildly, isn't playing its part in the war and isn't quite ready for naval combat against an enemy like the Ukrainians."
15/ "The number of [admirals'] pennants (already significant on paper) won't have any effect if there's a command crisis. Just don't try to write about how I never attended a naval academy.
16/ "You don't need to be an academic to see that the Black Sea Fleet has fallen out of the main context of the war, and essentially its entire function is to fire Kalibr missiles off the quay wall.
17/ "Are the admirals thinking about achieving naval superiority? Are they thinking about how to blockade Odesa and the other few enemy ports through which they receive weapons?
18/ "Are they thinking about how to adequately secure our shipping in the Black Sea? They probably are, I'm not ready to say what's going through their minds, but so far, as we can see, they haven't come up with anything special.
19/ "It's possible to fend off USVs from land as well. The Marines and coastal defence brigades have earned their reputation on the fronts of the Special Military Operation, while the Black Sea Fleet provides constant content for the enemy and nothing more.
20/ "For the ... paid mouths that swoop in in response to criticism, I can give a hint: the American Navy has also failed to fulfill its objectives in the war against Iran, despite being orders of magnitude superior to both the Iranian Navy and our Black Sea Fleet."
21/ 'Two Majors' suggests that Russia should "look back at some less-than-successful decisions, to put it mildly, stemming from either strict naval regulations or rigidity and a lack of strategic planning."
22/ "It all began at the very beginning of the war, when a fleet of crappy boats, known as USVs, began sinking our warships.
23/ "Although we know of cases where our ships and boats easily repelled USVs with small arms and group weapons, it turned out that a heavy machine gun mount was "impossible" (later, it turned out, quite possible).
24/ "There were also some unfortunate, extravagant solutions, such as sandbags on the hulls of large landing craft.
25/ "Later, a number of high-ranking experts argued that it was impossible to use FPV drones against USVs. This was later dispelled, and now our attack drones are capable of destroying Ukrainian USVs at a distance of over 100 km from the shore.
26/ "What about Neptune-type anti-ship missiles, a reader attentive to the long war might say. Well, the air defence systems on our ships aren't just there for nothing.
27/ "And what about aircraft-type UAVs? Well, our air defence forces (congratulations again) and volunteer units have accumulated vast experience in effectively countering them.
28/ "And our volunteers helped cover one of the warships with chain-link fencing, reducing the explosive impact away from the superstructure. Yes, a barbecue ship already exists, and it even pleases the eye with its beautiful form and thoughtfulness.
29/ "We've cited all these examples to support our opinion: the Black Sea Fleet is capable of solving combat missions with an innovative approach. There are no challenges that the ingenuity of Black Sea sailors can't handle.
30/ "The issue, perhaps, lies elsewhere. It's that, politically, Odesa and Mykolaiv are no longer among Russia's demands in the negotiations.
31/ "The long-term goals of the Special Military Operation, including in the Black Sea region, are vague, as if peace were just around the corner.
32/ "Otherwise, our submarines would be sinking the enemy’s merchant fleet, and our ships would be pushing the line of contact far from the Crimean coast, rather than standing on defence in the naval base under the watch of an unencrypted online camera.
33/ "The fleet, as an organisational structure, suffers from the same ailments as other strictly hierarchical military structures in our country. The problem is that "plugging holes" in the water is much more difficult than on land.
34/ "Volunteer vehicles, smart battalion commanders, horizontal connections, and the bravest sailors and warrant officers won't change the situation, nor will any other "crutches." A systemic change is needed here." /end
Sources:
🔹 t.me/rybar/79270
🔹 t.me/rybar/79449
🔹 t.me/vysokygovorit/…
🔹 t.me/dva_majors/911…
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