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Military analysis / Modern war theory / Unmanned battlefield Operational trends, force balance, probability in conflict Dummy predictions.

Apr 24, 5 tweets

Mashovets Sumy a week ago

Russia continues developing its "buffer zone" operation on the Northern Slobozhanskyi (Sumy) direction, where forces of the Northern Grouping are attempting to expand cross-border incursions east and southeast of Sumy city. Rather than a single large breakthrough, the operation currently relies on multiple small infiltration thrusts across the border zone from Myropillia to Hrabovske. The apparent concept is to create several shallow penetrations, then later link them together into a broader foothold inside Ukrainian territory.

The offensive is unfolding through three tactical groupings. The northern group is attacking from the Demidovka and Popovka areas toward Prokhody and Myropillia, seeking to pressure the northern edge of the Ukrainian border defense line. The central group is focused on Pokrovka, where meeting engagements are underway, while also probing through forested terrain toward Novodmytrivka and further south toward Taratutyne. The southern group is advancing from Hrabovske toward Riasne, attempting to outflank Ukrainian defenders from both the north and south, including movement along the Korova River and local road approaches.

At present, Russian central and southern penetrations may have linked into a single connected salient, but the northern thrust has not yet joined them. Fighting remains active along the Prokhody–Maryine line and around Myropillia, where Russian forces appear to be operating mainly with small assault detachments rather than holding firm control of settlements. This suggests limited manpower density and continued Ukrainian resistance in the northern sector.

Territorially, Russian gains remain modest. The only clearly significant settlement reportedly taken so far is Hrabovske, while overall penetrations average roughly five to six kilometers into Ukrainian territory. Battles continue for Novodmytrivka, Taratutyne, Pokrovka, and Riasne, as well as around Prokhody and Myropillia. This indicates the offensive has created tactical pressure but not yet a stable operational breakthrough.

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