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Military analysis / Modern war theory / Unmanned battlefield Operational trends, force balance, probability in conflict Dummy predictions.
Apr 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Mashovets Sumy a week ago

Russia continues developing its "buffer zone" operation on the Northern Slobozhanskyi (Sumy) direction, where forces of the Northern Grouping are attempting to expand cross-border incursions east and southeast of Sumy city. Rather than a single large breakthrough, the operation currently relies on multiple small infiltration thrusts across the border zone from Myropillia to Hrabovske. The apparent concept is to create several shallow penetrations, then later link them together into a broader foothold inside Ukrainian territory.Image The offensive is unfolding through three tactical groupings. The northern group is attacking from the Demidovka and Popovka areas toward Prokhody and Myropillia, seeking to pressure the northern edge of the Ukrainian border defense line. The central group is focused on Pokrovka, where meeting engagements are underway, while also probing through forested terrain toward Novodmytrivka and further south toward Taratutyne. The southern group is advancing from Hrabovske toward Riasne, attempting to outflank Ukrainian defenders from both the north and south, including movement along the Korova River and local road approaches.
Apr 18 9 tweets 4 min read
Mashovets Kostiantynivka review

Russia has entered a critical stage of the Kostiantynivka campaign, concentrating forces from several army groupings in what appears to be one of its priority operational sectors. The immediate objective is to seize Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, which would open the southern and southeastern approaches to the larger Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive agglomeration. To support this effort, Russian command has reinforced the sector with units from multiple formations — including elements drawn from AG Centre and AG Dniepr to supplement AG South own 8th Army and 3rd AC — indicating both the importance of the objective and the difficulty of achieving it with local forces alone.Image The current offensive is developing along several converging axes. From the south, Russian troops advancing from Berestok pushed through an overgrown ravine to reach the southwestern outskirts of Ivanivka, while simultaneously massing infantry in Berestok itself in preparation for a larger infiltration into western Kostiantynivka via the T-0504 road corridor.
On the southwestern axis, Russian assault groups have been fighting for over two weeks along the Yablonivka–Stepanivka line, attempting to push through toward Dovha Balka, though so far only a tenuous foothold in the southern part of Stepanivka has been established. Further south, assaults continue near Pleshchiivka and Ivanopillia, likely intended to push Ukrainian defenders northward and secure the flanks of the main attack.Image
Apr 12 5 tweets 3 min read
Mashovets Huliaipole

Russian forces are trying to resume offensive momentum toward Huliaipole, while simultaneously stabilizing the situation on the Novоoleksandrivka axis after Ukrainian counterattacks.

On the Huliaipole axis, Russian troops achieved limited tactical gains south of the sector, advancing toward Verkhna Tersa and intensifying pressure along multiple directions. However, their progress remains inconsistent and slowed, especially due to Ukrainian resistance around key defensive areas like the Huliaichur river line and settlements forming defensive "triangles".Image On the Novоoleksandrivka axis, the situation is more unstable. Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking, trying to expand their positions and threaten Russian flanks—particularly aiming to disrupt Russian operations by pushing toward Uspenivka–Temyrivka. These actions have forced Russian units to focus on holding ground rather than advancing.

Overall, the battlefield is highly fragmented, with frequent close-range fighting, infiltration by small infantry groups, and "mixed" frontlines. Russian forces are currently struggling to regain strong offensive tempo, while Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing advances and applying pressure on vulnerable sectors.Image
Mar 15 17 tweets 5 min read
Season of Arrows: Russia's 2026 Offensive

The Season is open, and there have been many valuable threads and articles covering individual fronts, both recent and historical. Before diving into the details, it is worth stepping back to examine the broader operational picture. Image Russia is currently operating five Army Groups along the front line, with an additional Northern Screening Group whose primary purpose is border raiding, harassment of AFU positions, and fixing Ukrainian forces in place.

AGs act separately but will be forced to cooperate.
Feb 28 5 tweets 2 min read
Striking February Image 5060 Drones, 288 Missiles (including 116 Ballistic missiles), 6224 Bombs. Image
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Jan 21 4 tweets 2 min read
A system designed not to last, but to win time

Look at the battlefield as a system of crumple zones - areas deliberately designed to fail under pressure while absorbing as much damage as possible, still protecting the vital nodes behind them. Image Ditches and earthworks define the overall pattern of this system, but the actual defense relies on a constellation of strongpoints of varying size. These positions are meant to hold for as long as conditions allow and to be abandoned when necessary. Their value lies not in permanence, but in the time, attrition, and disruption they impose on the attacker.Image
Dec 1, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
GSUA
Russians made 5976! assaults at 229 settlements - 59 settlements werent mentioned since October, 36 were mentioned for the first time;
extended by 531km2: capturing 468km2, gray out 62km2. Image
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One of the most attack Intensive months led to mediocre results in exchange of 31190 ivanZ in infantry friendly conditions. Image
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Nov 23, 2025 13 tweets 4 min read
Race to Zaporizhzhia
Russian Army Group East is slowly advancing through the fields of the southern front, with the defensive nodes of Orikhiv and Huliaipole standing between them and the main battle. The poor road network and mostly flat terrain shape every movement on this axis Image The Zaporizhzhia front is built around two rivers: the Konka and the Haichur.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover Image
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Nov 15, 2025 11 tweets 3 min read
Lyman and Beyond

The situation around Lyman is pretty straightforward: secure the flanks, cut the supply routes, and only then take the town. Everything else depends on that. Yarova and Yampil are the keys on the sides, and cutting the routes feeding Lyman. Image Wile main forces will be pocketing the town small infiltration groups can quietly dig in inside of it and wait for the right moment to strike, while AFU will try to counter that with surveillance and counter measures.
Nov 2, 2025 9 tweets 2 min read
The front has a limit.

You cannot cover everything. Each army can only handle a certain capacity - men, logistics, command, and attention. Once you exceed it, you lose control and start wasting people. 🔽 Image Stretching the front is not about survival - it is about pressure. You do it when you have spare resources and want to force the enemy to bleed, to react, to stretch too. Otherwise, it is suicide disguised as courage. 🔽
Oct 31, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
Striking October Image There were 6 massive combined attacks in a month

Russia used 5330 drones, 1109 (~20%) hit the target, some fall as debris damaging almost as many locations. Image
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Oct 30, 2025 14 tweets 4 min read
#Map Donbas after Pokrovsk

Dont expect big changes after Pokrovsk. Yeah its a hit but not a turning point. Just another town on the long road west. Russians will keep crawling 100-200 meters a day spreading pressure along the 60 km front slipping between defense points. Image Villages are russain boosters little steps to jump forward and micro assault groups keep poking every corner. Endless Ukrainian defensive lines mean less than they should when the enemy throws bodies everywhere they always find a weak spot.
Oct 24, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
MoD RF reportedly captured 10 settlements and extend by 88km2.

Despite all the claims Ivanivka didn't get into report.

No minor settlements left left to capture in the Pokrovsk pocket. Image
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GSUA reported 1034 attacks in total, 30% less than a previous week. Image
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Oct 16, 2025 13 tweets 2 min read
Shepherds of sponge war
The sponge front makes it tempting to push forward, but drones make any movement excessively dangerous. Still, doing nothing is even worse unless you have proper hideouts. A network of isolated, dispersed hideouts creates a true sponge defense.
1/12 Image Fortifications alone don't stop anything. Without coverage, drones and bombs suppress observation and make deliberate breaks deadly. The real sponge defense is a network of isolated, dispersed hideouts - hard to target and easy to melt into.
2/12
Oct 1, 2025 9 tweets 2 min read
Rashanverse has no time dimension; Frontline isn't an exception, hence all time-based predictions consistently fail. With this and the Russians' recent dynamics in mind, let's explore how the Donbas offensive will evolve. Image Beyond dense settlements, terrain remains the main factor. Roads are important but rarely used for assaults. Fortifications may slow down the advance but don't affect the vector of attack.
Sep 29, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
Settlements constellation

from small villages with less than 1000 people to 100 000+ cities.

Donbas is dominated by big stars, in the void of fields. Image Only large settlements with 5000 and more Image
Sep 15, 2025 13 tweets 3 min read
In a modern positional warfare, seizing ground isn't enough - attackers must capture stable positions they can hold. This thread explains why those points turn tactical gains into lasting control - and why taking them often comes at a very high cost. Image From the attacker's perspective, a stable position is more than a point on a map - it's a foundation for control. Capture it and you gain decisive lines of movement, observation, and logistics; fail and your gains evaporate.
Sep 12, 2025 10 tweets 2 min read
Cheese Defense review
Heavy drone usage has significantly reshaped modern defensive tactics in Ukraine.
For the AFU, adapting means balancing exposure risks with the need for flexibility along one of the world's longest active frontlines. Instead of rigid continuous lines, the AFU uses "pockets" - fortified strongpoints or "super nodes".
These hubs resist enemy attacks while visible gaps let AFU hold more ground with fewer troops.
Sep 12, 2025 7 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces of Army Group East are attempting to secure tactical gains on the front by shifting their focus westward, away from Novopavlivka, in an effort to cross the Vovcha river and establish a foothold.
With Novopavlivka as an obvious answer. Image AFU are relying on the high ground west of the river and defensive bubbles centered around major strongholds to contain the offensive. In exchange, Ukrainian defenders appear willing to concede some empty territory, of 13 people per square kilometers.
Aug 29, 2025 4 tweets 3 min read
MoD RF reportedly captured 90km2 (lowest this month) and 6 settlements over a week.
Seredne at Lyman
Kleban-Byk, Nelipivka at Toretsk
Filia, Pershe Travnia at Pokrovsk
and Zaporozhske at Novopavlivka. Image Majority of the gains happened at Novopavlivka and Lyman directions.
Things aren't that bad despite the information background.
Activities across all the fronts looks next Image
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Aug 1, 2025 4 tweets 3 min read
July in two pictures Image
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Average 32280 IvanZ, lowest-ever APC losses 140, second-lowest tank losses 85.
Declining vehicle losses reflect the changes on the battlefield.

Vehicles are no longer shaping the battlefield - drones are. Image
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