Thread by @MarcACaputo

Florida’s constitution bans lawmakers from intentionally creating congressional seats to give their party an advantage.

But Gov. Ron DeSantis quietly has launched a three-tiered power play to evade the ban — and create more GOP-friendly seats — in November

Post 1/10
👇

2/10
Under FL’s Fair Districts amendment, lawmakers can’t carve seats with “the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent”

But “intent” can be hard to prove. It takes time in court

And this about clock management

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

3/10
After rejecting FL lawmaker calls to have an open redistricting process in January’s regular session, DeSantis called the special session for Tuesday

If lawmakers approve the maps, the the first of the plan’s 3 layers starts to kick in: Purcell

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

4/10
Normally, redistricting is done not just in the open but by the legislative branch

DeSantis made sure this was an executive branch action

This way he can try to argue executive privilege & the Apex Doctrine in court

Tick
Tock

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

5/10

And then there’s layer three: secrecy.

Who created the maps?

What’s the record of their creation?

What was the provable intent?

Because this is drafted in the dark, plaintiffs will have a harder time answering that

Tick
Tock
Tick
To k

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

6/10
None of this is guaranteed to happen.

Judges can decide that there’s enough circumstantial evidence to show partisan intent —although 6 of the 7 FL Supreme Court justices were appointed by DeSantis

Still, the Purcell argument can also fail

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

7/10
We still haven’t seen the maps yet

So it’s doubly hard to forecast how this plays out

And there’s always a chance that —especially in this environment— the gerrymander becomes a dummymander that backfires on the GOP

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

8/10
DeSantis has denied partisan intent and talked about a pending SCOTUS ruling on minority-heavy seats and the census

But he’s not redrawing legislative maps —only the congressional ones Trump wants

These arguments don’t square with the circumstances

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

9/10
Some argue that what Florida is doing is equivalent to Virginia’s & California’s partisan gerrymanders

That’s intellectually dishonest

Those states held votes to approve their plans

FL isn’t

axios.com/2026/04/24/des…

10/10
63% of FL voters in 2010 voted against intentional partisan redistricting

The amendment & case law are clear

Legislators know that

But they also know Trump wants this & DeSantis wants to deliver

So their plan is to get in & out & not get sued
axios.com/2026/04/24/des…