1/7
SCOOP:
Some Pakistani sources close to the negotiations think the current Iran trips are part of plan to *TRICK* American negotiators into a bias peace deal.
Aimed at *appearing* to appease the US until AFTER the midterms, and then continuing a hardline agenda.
2/7
* Multiple sources have told me that Iran’s discussion of any potential concessions are oddly fixated on the first 8-12 months.
* One source said they’ve been told that’s because Iran believes after the mid-terms Trump will be a “lame duck” not authorized for aggression
3/7
* The trips to Oman and Russia seem to be focused on having allies implement short term programs, that “take 6-8 months to implement” and have the “appearance of concessions”
* For Oman this would mean a “joint responsibility” in the Strait in a “transition phase”
4/7
* For Russia, this means Russia receiving Iran’s enriched uranium, and providing guarantees.
* There is concern Iran would not really move any material.
* The view is Trump wouldn’t question Putin and would take his “guarantee” at face value.
5/7
* The belief is Trump is “desperate” for the *appearance* of victory and the “concessions” will be painted as wins.
* The Iranians believe they could then drag out implementations and “phased transitions” from now until Jan 2027 when a new Congress is seated.
6/7
My take:
This could be why the Iranians requested Vance instead of Rubio at the talks.
Rubio being much more familiar with international affairs and rollouts, may have raised a red flag about the timelines, or the trust being placed in the Russians.
7/7
With:
-Kushner and Witkoff being easy to trick or bribe with real estate deals
-Rubio sidelined
-Vance a “yes man” for Trump with less experience here
-Trump desperate for a pivot
Iran can put together a “deal” that gets them 90% of their terms from now until Jan 2027.
Trump would declare victory, only to find himself worse off later on.
The Trump admin doesn’t tend to think long term, and so could easily be suckered into a short term deal that is ultimately a defeat.
For its part Pakistan has interest in letting the deal happen in a positive lens to capture the acclaim - and so may be wary in raising these concerns with American counterparts.
Worth noting these statements are based on the takes of sources close to the discussion, and may include their own speculation.
The key way in which we’ll *know* these sources were accurate is if we see proposals develop involving:
* Russian management of nuclear material.
* Omani involvement in a Strait transition plan.
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