Stubb: Russia gained under 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2025 at a cost of 400,000 killed or wounded.
At this pace, taking Donetsk could cost another 800,000. Militarily, this is failure. Putin’s goal remains all of Ukraine; only a threat to his regime may change that.
1/
Stubb: Putin’s war has been a strategic failure. He wanted to take Ukraine, but pushed it deeper into Europe and NATO.
He wanted to stop NATO expansion, but got Finland and Sweden instead. He wanted global power — yet Russia’s influence is fading from Syria to Iran.
2/
Stubb: Air defense is changing fast as Ukraine reshapes warfare with drones and missiles. We need to diversify more.
And we’re reaching a point where Europe, the US, and Gulf states may need Ukraine’s military know-how more than Ukraine needs them.
3/
Stubb: Ukraine’s most credible security guarantee today is its 800,000-strong armed forces and a capacity for modern warfare unmatched in NATO.
The tide has turned: Europeans need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs them.
4X
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