I started a Substack. First piece up.
Most chaos is leadership choice. Some is physics. Some is human cruelty. Each demands a different preparation. Confusing them is what kills you, your project, and your supply chain. ↓
3/
Leadership chose cheap Chinese sourcing. I argued for US sourcing because the supply risk was visible. I was mocked for adding cost.
Project killed Jan/Feb 2025. Tariffs hit. The engineer who designed our 16-ch EMG board: "Yeah, whatever I designed, that's way more expensive now."
4/
Lutnick architected the 2025 tariffs. His sons' firm Cantor positioned to profit when courts strike them down: buying US importers' refund rights at 20-30¢ on the dollar. $100B secondary market by Mar '26. Senate Finance investigating. Architect's family wins. Operators eat it.
5/
Constraint is physics. Trigger was leadership.
President took his own council with the Iran war decision. Warned of huge blast radius. Decision went forward.
Helium tightened — and helium is physics, not negotiable. Plasma etchers need 10-20 sccm; Argon = 1/5 thermal coupling; no substitute. Qatar Ras Laffan offline = 30-38% global supply gone. Prepare anyway.
6/
Three high-profile killings in 9 months hit three different institutional surfaces.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson (Manhattan, Dec '24).
State rep killed in her home (Minnesota, Jun '25).
Charlie Kirk collage-campus (Utah, Sep '25).
Lesson: document everything before chaos lands.
7/
Preparation is the receipts. I'm prepared to record everything by default.
NYT called for an interview after the Utah event; I captured the call. The transcription holds up exactly as it unfolded months later.
Wild theories proved wrong. I watched it live. Documentation is what you have when prevention isn't.
8/
Three kinds of chaos. Three responses. Confusing them is what kills you. Free Thursday cadence at andrewpiskadlo.substack.com — drops ~10am MT. Subscribe if you want pieces direct.
andrewpiskadlo.substack.com/p/cost-of-chaos
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