I started a Substack. First piece up.
Most chaos is leadership choice. Some is physics. Some is human cruelty. Each demands a different preparation. Confusing them is what kills you, your project, and your supply chain. ↓
Most chaos is leadership choice. Some is physics. Some is human cruelty. Each demands a different preparation. Confusing them is what kills you, your project, and your supply chain. ↓
3/
Leadership chose cheap Chinese sourcing. I argued for US sourcing because the supply risk was visible. I was mocked for adding cost.
Project killed Jan/Feb 2025. Tariffs hit. The engineer who designed our 16-ch EMG board: "Yeah, whatever I designed, that's way more expensive now."
Leadership chose cheap Chinese sourcing. I argued for US sourcing because the supply risk was visible. I was mocked for adding cost.
Project killed Jan/Feb 2025. Tariffs hit. The engineer who designed our 16-ch EMG board: "Yeah, whatever I designed, that's way more expensive now."
4/
Lutnick architected the 2025 tariffs. His sons' firm Cantor positioned to profit when courts strike them down: buying US importers' refund rights at 20-30¢ on the dollar. $100B secondary market by Mar '26. Senate Finance investigating. Architect's family wins. Operators eat it.
Lutnick architected the 2025 tariffs. His sons' firm Cantor positioned to profit when courts strike them down: buying US importers' refund rights at 20-30¢ on the dollar. $100B secondary market by Mar '26. Senate Finance investigating. Architect's family wins. Operators eat it.
5/
Constraint is physics. Trigger was leadership.
President took his own council with the Iran war decision. Warned of huge blast radius. Decision went forward.
Helium tightened — and helium is physics, not negotiable. Plasma etchers need 10-20 sccm; Argon = 1/5 thermal coupling; no substitute. Qatar Ras Laffan offline = 30-38% global supply gone. Prepare anyway.
Constraint is physics. Trigger was leadership.
President took his own council with the Iran war decision. Warned of huge blast radius. Decision went forward.
Helium tightened — and helium is physics, not negotiable. Plasma etchers need 10-20 sccm; Argon = 1/5 thermal coupling; no substitute. Qatar Ras Laffan offline = 30-38% global supply gone. Prepare anyway.
6/
Three high-profile killings in 9 months hit three different institutional surfaces.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson (Manhattan, Dec '24).
State rep killed in her home (Minnesota, Jun '25).
Charlie Kirk collage-campus (Utah, Sep '25).
Lesson: document everything before chaos lands.
Three high-profile killings in 9 months hit three different institutional surfaces.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson (Manhattan, Dec '24).
State rep killed in her home (Minnesota, Jun '25).
Charlie Kirk collage-campus (Utah, Sep '25).
Lesson: document everything before chaos lands.
7/
Preparation is the receipts. I'm prepared to record everything by default.
NYT called for an interview after the Utah event; I captured the call. The transcription holds up exactly as it unfolded months later.
Wild theories proved wrong. I watched it live. Documentation is what you have when prevention isn't.
Preparation is the receipts. I'm prepared to record everything by default.
NYT called for an interview after the Utah event; I captured the call. The transcription holds up exactly as it unfolded months later.
Wild theories proved wrong. I watched it live. Documentation is what you have when prevention isn't.
8/
Three kinds of chaos. Three responses. Confusing them is what kills you. Free Thursday cadence at andrewpiskadlo.substack.com — drops ~10am MT. Subscribe if you want pieces direct.
andrewpiskadlo.substack.com/p/cost-of-chaos
Three kinds of chaos. Three responses. Confusing them is what kills you. Free Thursday cadence at andrewpiskadlo.substack.com — drops ~10am MT. Subscribe if you want pieces direct.
andrewpiskadlo.substack.com/p/cost-of-chaos
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