1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly admitting that Russia is suffering steady attrition from endless swarms of Ukrainian drones. '13 Tactical' posts a lament about Russia's strategic dilemma as it faces escalating costs in its war in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ The Russian military volunteer Dmitry Tinkov, writing on the '13 Tactical' Telegram channel, reviews the current situation and is very unhappy at what he sees, but takes refuge in half-hearted bravado as the only solution that he sees:
3/ "I think there are three underlying factors at the root of all our problems:
1. Those at the top genuinely believed they could reach an agreement on our terms.
2. They don't know what to do next with Ukraine (= what the outcome should be).
4/ "3. They thought things would continue this way and that time is on our side.
But the reality is this:
5/ "1. The enemy, realizing that it lacks offensive infantry potential, is adopting the only possible strategy – UAVs, strikes close in and deep into the area, destroying infrastructure, making the war more and more expensive for us. Day after day, over a long period of time.
6/ "Moreover, the cost of a Leopard 2 tank ranges from $11 million to $32 million, depending on the configuration.
The cost of one aircraft-type UAV is $5,000.
That is, one tank, not the most expensive one, by the way, is worth from 2,200 to 6,400 drones.
7/ "On average, this is the same burden that fell on the shoulders of our air defence in central Russia during the May holidays.
8/ "2,200 - 6,400 drones, a certain number of Pantsir missiles, said to cost (I don't know exactly) around 4 million [rubles ($56,000) each], and some millions of rounds of ammunition burned by mobile fire teams, which no one even counts, but they should.
9/ "So what happens if, say, a thousand missiles were expended, then that's costing from 4 billion rubles [$56.1 million].
10/ "A 5.45x39 cartridge in a magazine costs 27 rubles. I don't know how accurate this calculation is, or the exact number of 5.45, 7.62, 12.7, 14.5, 23, and 30mm rounds that were expended, but they don't grow in cornfields and cost the state money.
11/ "What's my point?
One tank won't cause us 4 billion rubles worth of damage. (Unless it falls from a plane onto Barvikha Luxury Village [an ultra-exclusive suburb of Moscow] from above).
12/ "But 2,200-6,400 UAVs will inflict damage by default.
Even if everything is shot down.
Even.
And that's not all.
So, there's another plus.
13/ "While our top brass thought there was some point in negotiating or that they wanted peace, the enemy was simply getting what they needed - time. And, as we see, they used it to the maximum:
14/ "1. They created a system in its broadest form.
2. Squeezed maximum efficiency out of it.
3. Created production.
15/ "And yet, on our TV and in the State Duma, they call all this an act of desperation. They've saved up, say the chairmen of various specialised defence committees.
You guys saved up.
But they do it every day.
And that's the problem.
16/ "The problem is that they haven't saved up, they've reached their design capabilities.
And this strategy is about twice as profitable for them.
For every billion they spend, we respond with two. That's the best-case scenario. The worst is 1 to 5.
17/ "Not counting the damage to infrastructure. Debris, of course, and mostly burning grass, but no one really knows how many yards a week of burning such oil grass costs the state.
18/ "What about us? Nothing.
I don't see any signs of understanding the situation among those who should have them.
19/ "My prediction will be funny.
We will kill everyone, of course.
It has always been this way and it always will be this way.
As it was a hundred years ago, so it will be a thousand.
20/ "But there are two conditions:
1. We unite only when EVERYONE is in trouble , not just the border areas.
2. We pay a very high price for the indifference of others.
But as I already said, we will kill EVERYONE. So don't rush to post emojis, little piggies.
Reread.
21/ "You won't win, it's just that not everyone is in trouble yet. But you are doing everything to make it happen for everyone. Without really realising what this means for you.
22/ "And it's not about the ruling class, the backroom oligarchs, the State Duma, and the like.
It will be an ordinary Ivan who will kill you." /end
Source:
t.me/tactical_13/96…
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