1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:
"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
4/ …even now it's embarrassing to even write about it... And I've already written in detail about how, while we're trying to "push the enemy out of the Donbas with meat," he's intensifying his attacks on our rear.
5/ "And these attacks are ever more widespread, painful, and visible —they may be easy to ignore on TV, but they can no longer be hidden from the population: they are now becoming EVERYWHERE AND TOO FREQUENT for the population to remain unaware and unconcerned.
6/ "There's no doubt that this year the enemy will, if not completely, then significantly disrupt the "tourist season" in Crimea and the Black Sea region —and this will be felt even by the indifferent "office hamsters" (especially the Special Military Operation) and others.
7/ "And then (or in parallel?), the most important north-south railways and highways will begin to fail (all of them are now within range of the enemy's weapons, and the Ukrainians are unlikely to ignore them—they have ample means to do so now).
8/ "How will we respond to this? WITH NOTHING. Until the "elections" (i.e., the parody of elections) to the Federal Assembly, the authorities will be patient and refrain from taking any decisive steps, so as not to "rock the boat" and "irritate the electorate."
9/ "To "push" the Kremlin into anything beyond its current efforts in these months would require a particularly major provocation from its "esteemed Kyiv partners," such as a landing in Crimea (or near it).
10/ "I've already written that I have no idea (for objective reasons) whether the Ukrainians are capable of such an adventure (or whether their forces are too weakened to carry out such risky operations), but the potential for such a move is entirely real.
11/ "However, if the enemy's strategy is currently based on prolonging the "mutually exhausting" conflict as much as possible, this may not be to their advantage, even if they were capable/possible.
12/ "But there's no doubt that they'll be bombing (with drones and missiles) continuously and with a constant buildup." /end
Source:
t.me/strelkovii/7437
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