1/ The Russian army is suffering unprecedented losses that will make a fresh mobilisation essential, according to a Russian warblogger. He warns that the average life expectancy of troops on an assault operation is now down to just 20-35 minutes. ⬇️
2/ In a long commentary, 'House among the Laurels' makes the case that a fresh Russian mobilisation is becoming an absolute necessity given the extreme scale of Russia's personnel losses:
3/ "I personally have no doubts about the predicted wave of mobilisation. I'm discussing this not because it's a "popular" topic, but because in some regions of our country, men have begun being summoned to military commissariats to receive mobilisation orders.
4/ "These orders are documents that specify where and when to report when mobilisation is declared. The fact that orders are being issued indicates that the appropriate instructions have arrived. And I can't help but say that this could very well be a "preparatory measure."
5/ "And what's my point? It's that times have changed.
If they used to say that "war is different now," now seasoned front-line soldiers will say that over the past year, war has become "different" at least two or three times. What does this mean?
6/ "It means that each time it gets harder, many times harder than what was "difficult" in the previous stage. And of course, drones. The only thing we're talking about is drones, and their exponential increase in their ever-increasing use.
7/ "Mass deployments during deep logistics disruptions. Mass deployments on people.
And speaking of that last point, I once came across an article on "statistics."
8/ "Basically, according to independent research by "N... ," today the average life expectancy of a soldier on the front lines (during an assault) is 20-35 minutes—that's during an offensive operation.
9/ "Any "life expectancy" beyond that and subsequent "lifespan" only indicates that the soldier has either found cover (a dugout, a pipe, etc.) or occupied the front line.
10/ "According to the same study, the "average life expectancy" of a soldier from his arrival at the training ground until his departure to the combat zone ranges from ten days to three weeks.
11/ "They also calculated the percentage of assault groups that reach the mission area and, directly, until they occupy the front line. Extremely depressing data.
12/ "Statistics on combat medical losses have also changed, as the percentage of seriously wounded soldiers subject to subsequent discharge has increased significantly, while the percentage of those returning to duty after recovery has decreased (I won't elaborate).
13/ "The same report also included calculations for the wounded-to-dead ratio. There's no point in rehashing the article's contents, but the overall conclusion is this: the nature of combat has changed, and irreversible losses are increasing month by month,…
14/ …while incoming reinforcements don't fully offset the loss of wounded and irreversible losses.
Forgive me for such a cold-blooded presentation, but I'm writing about this as correctly as possible...
15/ "And, generally speaking, speaking about all this, I even come to the conclusion that, given the nature of combat operations in 2022,…
16/ …those same three hundred thousand from the first wave of mobilised troops bore the brunt of the next two to three years; now, with the current gluttony of war, even more men are needed for the front.
17/ "Moreover, whereas previously, those same men moved with heavy steps along the front lines, now other similar front-line troops are essentially engaged in a "survival mode," because losses are now incurred long before they reach the front lines.
18/ "Generally speaking, the early segment of one unit advancing in 2022 is equivalent to two to three units now, and given the critical impact on it not only on the front lines but also in the rear zone, this figure could even increase by one more.
19/ "And of course, looking at what is happening on the current front line, I cannot help but say that right now the frontline troops, in the balance of forces, are fighting and suffering casualties not so much to push back the enemy lines, but in some places more to keep…
20/ …the faltering line from collapsing...
It is, of course, a frightening thing to say, but there seems to be no other way.
I may well be mistaken, but we currently see no alternative to pushing back the front lines other than through the exhaustion of that great bloodshed.
21/ "I’d like to say ‘not yet’, but I don’t want to delude myself that perhaps things might turn out differently.
22/ "I want to believe that it will, but for now we are heading towards difficult times, and mobilisation is not some kind of scare story for the uninitiated, but simply a necessary and inevitable measure to save the situation at the front, a measure to keep things going." /end
Sources:
🔹 t.me/housethelaurel…
🔹 t.me/housethelaurel…
🔹 t.me/housethelaurel…
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