Putin faces a succession crisis in Chechnya that could erupt into a new war inside Russia, draining troops and money he needs for Ukraine — Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy.
The region's ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is probably terminally ill, and his heir is his 18-year-old son. 1/
Putin built his presidency by crushing Chechen rebels in the late 1990s, then made a deal with Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov suppressed the insurgency and accepted Moscow's rule, and in return ran Chechnya as he pleased.
A bomb killed Akhmad in 2004. Power passed to his son Ramzan. 2/
That autonomy runs on Russian cash. Moscow transfers $3.8 billion to Chechnya every year, about 92 percent of the republic's entire budget.
Kadyrov treats the money as a personal slush fund and spends it on whim, paying for a lavish lifestyle and a private security force. 3/
Those 33,000 fighters answer to Kadyrov alone, not Moscow. He sent many to Ukraine, where they built a reputation for filming TikTok videos rather than fighting.
Chechnya now records the lowest war casualty rate of any region in Russia, and the force stays intact at home. 4/
Putin berates and fires other governors on camera. With Kadyrov he stays silent, even after Kadyrov named his teenage son Adam to head Chechnya's Security Council.
Putin has also refused to audition any successor, and he never publicly criticizes Kadyrov's most extreme moves. 5/
Ukraine recognized Chechen independence in 2022 and works to embolden Kadyrov's enemies. A new war in Chechnya would drain troops and money Putin needs for Ukraine.
Chechen units already fight on both sides in Ukraine, and rivals he drove into exile wait to settle scores. 6/
The last transition was violent. Ramzan needed five years to subdue his enemies after taking power. In 2008 his troops fought the men of warlord Sulim Yamadayev, a sworn clan enemy, in a battle that killed 18.
A year later, gunmen shot Yamadayev dead in a Dubai parking garage. 7/
Kadyrov has prepared his exit. He befriended UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed and parked fortunes there, pushing his clan into Dubai real estate. One nephew has already applied for Emirati citizenship.
If he dies before the succession is settled, his family knows where to go. 8X
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