Thread by @ThreshedThought

The UK has a big problem …

The UK has a FRIGATE-GAP

A 🧵

Allow me to explain.

Frigates are the general workhorse of the naval fleet. And they are the only ships we have that can conduct anti-submarine warfare.

Anti-submarine warfare you say?

Is that really important?

YES

Back by popular demand.

(Explanation in following tweets).

The Russian Northern Fleet (RED ARROWS) - with 22 submarines - is pretty much unaffected by Russia’s losses in the Ukraine war, and it remains a key way for Russia to put pressure on the UK.

(The Russian Northern Fleet alone has twice as many subs as the Royal Navy!).

Putting pressure on us includes loitering around and mapping our undersea data and power cables, transiting through our territorial waters etc.

All of these activities soak up our military assets and make it harder to make military decisions.

The head of the Royal Navy recently said that ONE THIRD of the Navy’s time is spent monitoring and responding to Russian activity.

Another important reason that we need to keep an eye on the Russians is the blue circle.

NATO needs to keep that bit of sea clear as it is the main supply line between Europe and North America through which reinforcements would flow.

Allegedly it’s also where our nuclear deterrent submarine hangs out (but who knows).

Back to the Frigate Gap.

The UK currently has 5 frigates in service. It started the year with 7. And in the year 2000, the UK had 20 frigates.

This is nowhere near enough.

There is something called the Naval Rule of Three: you can only have a third of your ships at sea at any one time (due to refits and maintenance etc.)

So FIVE ships is actually sometimes TWO ships and sometimes ONE ship.

This is nowhere near enough to carry out the various tasks the frigates need to:

- protect the nuclear deterrent
- protect the carrier group
- General escort duties
- responding to Russian incursions
- home waters cable defence
- etc.

Now the government would argue that they are building lots of new frigates.

This is true - and it will give us a fleet of 13 frigates - a level that is appropriate for the tasks (just).

But they won’t be in place until 2035!!

And over the next few years, new frigates will enter the fleet and the old current ageing fleet will be decommissioned.

But the first new frigate is only going to enter service in 2028 - at the earliest.

Any slippage from 2028, or anything catastrophic happening to any of our current frigates (who are well beyond their service life) would leave us (at times) without any frigates available for tasking.

Don’t believe me?

We currently have five attack subs. Currently - today - none of them are available for tasking.

Hence the FRIGATE GAP - and we are bang slap in the middle of it.

We are incredibly vulnerable. For several years.

I’d like to finish with a vignette from a school visit I did recently.

Like many MPs I do lots of school visits to talk to students of all ages.

To be honest, it’s probably the best bit of my job!

I was talking with a group of sixth formers, and the topic turned to defence and security.

I asked them how many ships they thought the Royal Navy had.

There were various answers, but most students answered around 50-100. When I compared it to the US Fleet (approx 500 ships), they said that the Royal Navy was about 200 ships.

There were no answers smaller than 50.

When I told them that we had 11 ships, they were utterly shocked.

Genuinely jaw-droppingly shocked.

Every single student in that room accepted that Britain had to rearm - and rearm fast - starting with its Navy.

They accepted this even if it involved tradeoffs elsewhere.

I often think of this moment, when I watch our current government dither and delay over defence.

Where is the Defence Investment Plan, for instance?

It’s a year late for crying out loud.

I accept that all three main parties have had their hands on the tiller as we have reduced the size of our Navy.

But the current government is the government NOW. And the Frigate Gap is happening on their watch.

ENDs