There is one big reason why a Burnham premiership is doomed, just as a Starmer premiership is doomed - Labour still haven't come to terms with the financial crisis. In particular, they're still relying on the economics of 'one weird trick'. Quick thread. (1/?)
As I say in my column, the Makerfield by-election was marked by a staggering array of spending commitments/semi-promises.
The charitable explanation is this isn't spendthrift socialism - Andy is a people-pleaser (see @mrianleslie) who hears people complain and wants to help.
But what's really interesting is that the position that's evolving isn't 'eff the bond markets'. It's an awkward combination of 'fiscal discipline, but try however we can to get around it' - lots of talk about 'creative thinking', 'cleverer ways', 'finding some kind of way to'...
The best summary is this Tribune Group essay from Louise Haigh (key Burnham ally) - acknowledges the tension between thrift and spending, promises radical rewriting of fiscal rules but only after current targets are met and the budget is balanced. renewal.org.uk/journal/volume…
But of course (as I say in column) all of this is pointless. The govt has just nearly collapsed after trying to find a few more billion for defence. Borrowing is insanely high (see latest ONS figures). And there's fantastical neo-austerity pencilled in by from Reeves from 2026-7.
There's no 'one weird trick' that gets you out of this except spending less money. But as per Haigh, Labour can't see a way to 'deliver change to the electorate that put their trust in us in 2024' without spending more. And they haven't since 2008.
Of course, there is one alternative I haven't mentioned: higher taxes. But as I explain in the column, that won't work either. Please give it a read thetimes.com/comment/column…
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