Latest Twitter Threads by @rcolvile on Thread Reader App

Nov 12 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

I can't believe that @Ed_Miliband is still using that £300 figure, but here is a quick recap of why it is hugely misleading - in fact, nakedly dishonest. (1/?)

https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1856240892983623698

The report comes from Ember, a pro-green consultancy set up by Bryony Worthington, a Labour peer and Miliband ally. It claims, as does Miliband, that 'a clean power system saves UK households £300 per year'.

Oct 28 • 23 tweets • 6 min read

Hugely important paper from @CPSThinkTank today - showing significant and repeated left-wing bias among all of the most popular LLMs on questions of politics and policy. (1/?)

For the paper, @DavidRozado asked 24 LLMs a range of neutral questions:

- To propose multiple policy ideas for the UK/EU
- To describe UK/European leaders
- To describe UK/European parties
- To describe various mainstream ideologies
- To describe various extreme ideologies

Oct 2 • 6 tweets • 3 min read

The @ONS has published its latest stats on smoking. And it's good news! In 2023, smoking fell to the lowest level on record in every part of the UK. (1/?) ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

In particular, there has been a sharp and continuing rise in the number of people who have quit smoking. But as this chart shows, that didn't coincide with any new ban. That sudden spike upwards since the mid-2010s matches the rise of... vaping.

Sep 9 • 25 tweets • 9 min read

Over the years since the Second World War, the great cities of the West have grown and thrived. But there is one big exception. The boundaries of London still sit where they did when the builders down tools in 1939. Why? The green belt. (1/?) thetimes.com/article/labour…

If you look at a map of New York (source animation here ), or Macron's plans for 'Le Grand Paris' (), you can see how capital cities have grown and can grow. vimeo.com/297249350
capx.co/revealed-how-p…

Sep 5 • 13 tweets • 3 min read

As the GB Energy Bill passes second reading, a quick reminder of how incredibly dodgy the maths behind Labour's energy policies is. (1/?) Labour has promised to completely decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030. Most experts think that's completely impossible, at least without spending very, very large amounts.

Aug 4 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

Are the Southport riots a turning point for Britain? Do they reveal something new, hideous and broken about our society? Lots of commentators are saying so, very loudly. But there's still a strong chance - if you go purely by historical precedent - that the answer is no. (1/?) When the London riots happened in 2011, I wrote an op-ed on '10 ways in which these riots will change Britain'. There was universal agreement that they would do so (as well as some extraordinary attempts to argue that this just proved what the writer had been saying all along).

Jul 31 • 26 tweets • 7 min read

Yesterday, the Govt published new housing targets. The ambition – to expand housebuilding – is hugely welcome. But if you go council by council, there are BIG problems, which have the potential to a) cause huge resistance b) deliver housing where it’s least needed. Strap in (1/?) The govt is saying the new measure takes more account of affordability. But a map of housing affordability (R) looks NOTHING like what it’s done to council-level targets (L). If anything, the opposite.

Jul 30 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

I like a lot of things about Labour's housing reforms. But the decision to let London off the hook has me properly fuming. Quick thread. (1/?) When you're in power, you get to fuck over the people who didn't vote for you. That's life. The Tories did that with the 'urban uplift', which hacked housing targets in order to force more homes into the big cities. And now Labour have done the opposite.

https://x.com/breeallegretti/status/1818283491060252889

Jul 30 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

Right. Have been reading the changes to the NPPF, and it is genuinely game-changing on the green belt, in a way that is ambitious, necessary and potentially v v controversial - but also has very little to do with the 'grey belt'. Quick thread on what's changed. (1/?) The new NPPF (which they've helpfully done track changes on) introduces a new category of green belt land called 'grey belt', which is exempt from existing restrictions on green belt land.

Jul 27 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

According to @thetimes, @AngelaRayner is planning to increase/update housing targets, and make them compulsory for councils. Quick thread on why this is both welcome and necessary (1/?) thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar… 1) Housing targets are outdated. Most experts now think that they should be closer to 400k or 500k than the 300k originally set back in the 2010s. This isn't just because the population has grown, but because we've failed to build enough, creating an additional deficit.

Jul 5 • 9 tweets • 2 min read

Already seeing people saying 'we just need to reunite the Right, job done'. But I've been crunching the numbers and it's not quite that simple/encouraging. Quick thread (1/?) The Tories have lost 250 seats. In 166 of them, the Reform vote was larger than the size of the Tory majority. Farage has very clearly cost the Conservatives dozens and dozens of seats.

Jun 2 • 15 tweets • 3 min read

56% of voters think their taxes will rise under Labour. Which means 44% aren't paying attention. Have written for @thetimes on the nonsense numbers underpinning the campaign. (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/labour… 1) 'Decarbonising grid by 2030 and setting up Great British Energy will save £300 on your bills' - no. As highlighted the other day, the £300 figure is based on energy cap at Q3 2023 levels. It's now come down, meaning the Tories have delivered most/all of these 'savings'.

May 31 • 17 tweets • 5 min read

Argh. I know elections are a time for bad numbers on all sides. But Labour's sums on energy/savings are a particularly aggravating form of bullshit. Quick thread (1/?) bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… Labour says that its plans would 'turn the page on the cost of living crisis' and reduce bills by £300 per household. To justify this figure, it points to 'research by think tank Ember'.

May 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

It's often said that Twitter isn't the electorate. That's normally expressed in terms of left-right bias. But as the last few days show, there's another axis on which it's true - age. (1/?) If you want to know why the Tories are focusing on National Service and the 'quadruple lock', it's not just that their core voters are elderly. It's that voters are, full stop.

May 8 • 31 tweets • 11 min read

Big new report out on the immigration system from @CPSThinkTank, by @RobertJenrick, @NeilDotObrien & @MalvernianKarl. There’s a huge amount of really interesting stuff in there – so let me run through the key points/charts. (1/?) cps.org.uk/research/takin…

The first and most obvious point is that there has been a HUGE (and historically unprecedented) rise in net migration. In the 25 years before Tony Blair took office, cumulative migration was almost 100x lower than in the 25 years after.

Mar 24 • 14 tweets • 5 min read

Is Britain ready for the Baby Bust? My column this week is on, quite literally, the biggest story in the world - what's happening to population. Quick thread as some of the stats are pretty jaw-dropping (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/were-d… A big new study in the Lancet confirms what demographers have known for ages - we're heading for a shrinking planet. By 2100, fertility rates in 97% of countries will be below replacement rates healthdata.org/news-events/ne…

Mar 19 • 31 tweets • 10 min read

Yes, it's another prominent article in the Guardian pretending that we don't need to build any more houses. And like all the others, it's riddled with glaring errors. Just in case anyone believes this bullshit, let's do the thread thing. (1/far too many) theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2… Central thesis of this article: there is no shortage of housing. It's all about landlords. Literally 'mass-scale housebuilding isn't necessary'. Punch! But, er, wrong.

Feb 13 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

I've written before about @SadiqKhan's thoroughly awful record on housing, and his relentless attempts to gaslight London into believing the opposite, but surely even his most loyal cronies can't defend the latest figures, published today. (1/?) Target for GLA affordable housing starts, 2021-6: 23,900 to 27,100 p.a.

Actual GLA affordable housing starts, first three quarters of 2023-4: 874

Jan 30 • 14 tweets • 4 min read

The new population projections are out. And they show (shock!) that we either need to cut net migration, or build WAY more houses. Preferably, both. Quick thread (1/) As @CPSThinkTank has pointed out repeatedly, the 300k a year housing target is based on a decade-old estimate that net migration would be 170,500 a year. The levels we've had have been... not that.

Jan 21 • 28 tweets • 9 min read

Everyone is talking about Horizon/Fujitsu. But there are some key aspects everyone has missed - including the big reason Fujitsu kept getting contracts even after the scandal broke. Have done a deep dive for my column - thread below (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/the-vi…

The story starts in the 60s, when the Wilson govt hits on a new solution to Britain's lack of competitiveness - not nationalisation, but national direction. It forces private firms to merge (at gunpoint) to create 'national champions' which can export to the world.

Jan 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

Really, really striking finding from the latest @ONS polling - 56% of people say housing is one of the most important issues facing the country. That may not sound like much, given it's behind eg climate change. But there's a really important corollary. (1/3)

An absolute truckload of people (technical term) own outright. Among those with mortgages, a large proportion have paid off much of it. So what this is saying is that pretty much everyone actually paying a mortgage/rent thinks housing is a huge issue, plus many who don't.

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