Thread by @Schizointel

With the destruction of the North Crimean Canal Rail Bridge and Damaged Road bridge at Rozdolne Kerch Strait Rail Bridge is now virtually useless. Crimea by Rail is now officially an island.

Last year's rail strike campaign along the line between Tokmak and Volnovakha culminated last fall around late October early November. With this the line has been practically abandoned and satellite imagery from sentinel shows virtually zero use since then to the present as Russia reshifted its rail back from the land bridge to Rail Ferries into Crimea to avoid FPV drones that kept striking trains east of Tokmak.

All 3 active Rail Ferries have once again been struck and put out of action forcing Russian Rail no choice but to use the Kerch Bridge though now if they do the trains can't get past Rozdolne cutting rail service to the rest of Crimea and the front lines.

Any train that does cross will have to unload it's cargo at likely Vladislavovka or Feodosia then do a bunch of switching to have the train leave Crimea to kept the yards open.

Problem with this method is the same Russian forces faced last June when they announced shifting the land bridge which is that this method is also completely now within range of drones and will be attacked meaning it's not safe.

There is nothing preventing the Russians from resuming rail operations along the land bridge from Volnovakha to Tokmak though this route is extremely dangerous well within striking range and is single track so if a train gets blown up whole line is shut down till it's cleared and anything that does try to traverse this route will be struck as was seen repeatedly last year and the now dozens of tractor trailers along the coast that keep getting blown up on a daily basis since May.

Repair and resumption of traffic of the road and rail bridges at Rozdolne is critical to Russian war efforts in supplying occupied Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhia question is how many resources is Russia willing to lose to repair these bridges since they're just going to be attacked repeatedly by Ukraine and can they fix and get the bridges back in operation before Frontline units crack from supply issues and civil unrest from local populace stuck with dwindling options and fuel to get off the now island of Crimea.

Legend of the images below:

Red Lines are rail lines closed.

Orange lines are rail lines directly impacted by the closed lines.

Green lines are rail lines operating normally.

Purple line is the Front Line

Blue GPS Icon the site of this mornings attack on the rail bridge.

Red Train icons are attacks in 2026.
Grey Train icons are attacks prior to 2026.

What a great idea! Let's have a bunch of civilian cars with 200 Liters of fuel a piece that definitely won't be confiscated for the military sitting on the vulnerable bridge.

Thread from last year explaining the shifting logistics of the land bridge prior to the ferries resuming operation.

For the Russians in Crimea, the clock is ticking you best be preparing for Evacuation Day of the Crimea like the White Army before you in 1920.

Not long till Kerch is the only physical way in or out of Crimea.