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Former IS1, Firefighter, Conductor, work cited in Telegraph, The Warzone, Gcaptain, Task & Purpose, SIC Notícias, Visegrád 24, Texty UA, Kyiv Post, Newsweek
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Oct 10 11 tweets 3 min read
Welcome to the IC Waffle House
#WaffleHouseIndex Image For those that don't know WAFFLE is an acronym that stands for

Weather
Assistance
Field
Force
Logistics &
Evacuation

Thank you @grandmastercdc
Oct 10 8 tweets 2 min read
You want to know how Waffle House knows whether or not to keep their restaurants open welcome to the Waffle House Joint Intelligence Operations Coordination Center. Here we have a rare photo from inside the Waffle House Intelligence Fusion Center. What sticks out besides
Operational Meteorologists SME "Dan" is the wall of monitors bringing real time status of individual Waffle House franchise stores to the WH-JIOCC which helps the team make status reports to regional managers the decision makers on whether to keep a store open or closed this information is also sent to FEMA and other Emergency Management Agencies which is used to predict likely areas that will be impacted from natural disasters to better coordinate emergency resources.Image The European mind cannot comprehend that a Breakfast Food Chain has its own devoted intelligence center that probably has more resources than half of NATO.
Oct 7 5 tweets 2 min read
06OCT2024 Updated map of warships operating in Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea.

Few minor notes before we begin.

1. Locations are not precise
2. Might be missing a few ships particularly from Combined Maritime Forces. Feel free to message or comment if anything is missing or needs editing.

Latest updates

HS Spetsai (F-453) has entered the Red Sea and will likely be replacing HS Psara (F-454) in the coming days.

Indian Navy has sent
INS Tir (A86)
INS Shardul (L16)
ICGS Veera (35)
To conduct a training with the Iranian Navy in the coming days.

Abe Lincoln CSG continues to operate off the coast of Oman.

USS Georgia conducted up to 15 strikes on Houthi targets in Sanaa and Hodeida.

Near entirely of the Iranian Navy has sortied out to sea and have anchored off the coast spread out to minimize risk of damage in a likely Israeli retaliatory strike.

Thank you to the following accounts assisting in creating the map
@ianellisjones
@GSSReport
@MT_Anderson
@mercoglianos
@johnkonrad
@mhmiranusa
@UKForcesTracker
@TBrit90
@sentdefender
@mhmiranusaImage The Red Sea Eternal Flame as
@mercoglianos called it Has finally be extinguished after nearly 2 months of burning
Oct 2 5 tweets 3 min read
Social media is claiming Russia has deployed a FAB-9000 and once again the evidence does not support this blast being consistent with such a bomb. This blast is consistent with a ODAB-1500/FAB-1500

Red Ring is 30 Meters and the explosion and subsequent damage to the buildings does not exceed this distance in the drone video.
Yellow ring is approximately 100 meters

You can also see the bomb at the start of the video does not match the profile of a FAB-9000.Image
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Video was originally uploaded September 30th by a Russian telegram channel which accurately States that the bomb deployed was a ODAB-1500.
Link to the original source of the video
t.me/voenacher/72419
Sep 21 4 tweets 2 min read
40,000 tons of ammunition blown up is apparently less than 1% of what Russia produces.

Like to know where Russia is producing and storing what would be the equivalent of 220,000 artillery shells per day.

Also 3 ammo depots exploded.

Also mixed up tonnage with number of shells.

Russia claims to make 3 million shells not 3 million tons of shells that 3 million shells equals 171,000 tons
So Ukraine destroyed 23.39% of Russia's yearly production in 3 days.

Losing 3 months of production is supposed to be no biggie lol.

Losing 30-60 days of munitions is supposed to be no biggie lol.

Explain Push Logistics and it's role in the Russian military with the Russian Railways and come back and say no impact on the battle space.Image Will this suddenly stop Russia's advance? And will Ukraine all of a sudden be able to start retaking large swaths of land? No, this will do is significantly degrade Russian combat capabilities resulting in decreased abilities to advance make the decisions on ending offensive operations and go back on the defense to preserve resources or make the decisions, you significantly reduce resources in certain sectors to sustain offensive operations in another, thus leaving the depleted sector vulnerable by being ill-equipped to sustain operational tempos
Sep 21 12 tweets 8 min read
Tonight Ukrainian OWA-UAV's successfully struck and have severely damaged the Toropets South Ammunition Depot now known as 23rd GRAU Arsenal at Oktyabrskii.
This depot sits 10 miles south of Toropets Northeast Ammunition Depot known as the 107th GRAU Arsenal which was destroyed several days ago.
This depot has not seen significant expansion since the declassified June 1964 report by the National Photographic Interpretation Center now known as the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

The data right now indicates that moderate fire to original storage depots going west to east along the rail and fire at the eastern outskirts of
OktyabrskiiImage
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Toropets South Ammunition Depot has a total of 71 buildings

Protected: 57
Unprotected: 14

The buildings on the Southern end have been torn down and munitions are stored in the open unprotected. The footprint of these buildings used to measure 290' x 80 ft.

The bulk of the buildings on the Northern end of the depot measure 170' x 50' ft and the one 290' x 80' building was torn down and munitions are also stored in the open.

Toropets South is served by a rail spur from the branch line from the
Moscow/Velikiye Luki rail line.
The depot also is served by a secondary road system connecting Toropets and Staraya Toropa.

The total amount of munitions if this depot was fully stocked roughly 10,000~ tons stored inside the ammo bunkers and the amount of munitions stored in the open is likely around 4,000~ tons
Sep 20 5 tweets 3 min read
I can't share the imagery but the higher resolution images of Toropets a Russian ammunition train was at the depot and was also utterly obliterated around 50 plus ammo cars Image 1 highlighted in pink are the approximate lengths of the ammo cars that were either loading or offloading

Images 2-4 highlighted in dark red


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Sep 18 4 tweets 1 min read
Perfectly calm weather and the nuclear bomb sized ammonia nitrate fire ship Ruby magically has lost propulsion engines down and no longer under command right outside a large Norwegian Naval Base What's currently wrong with the ship

Lost propulsion,
Hull cracked,
Crew without papers,
Unlawful fuel with high sulphur levels,
2 notes on lack in safety.
Sep 18 22 tweets 9 min read
Tonight Ukrainian OWA-UAV's successfully struck and have severely damaged the Toropets Northeast Ammunition Depot which has seen significant expansion since the declassified June 1965 report by the National Photographic Interpretation Center now known as the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

The data right now indicates that there is significant damage to the newer expansions of the depot, primarily among the reinforced ammunition bunkers on the eastern side of the facility along with several of the original 150' x 40' storage buildings and among the barracks and administrative buildings by the depot entrance on the Northern side of the depot. Today this former Soviet Era Munitions Depot is operated by the 107th GRAU Arsenal which expanded with the depot with an addition of 42 reinforced bunkers and 23 non reinforced storage and maintenance buildings likely housing several tens of thousands of tons of munitions such as Air Defense Missiles and Surface to Surface Missiles.Image
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Sep 14 10 tweets 4 min read
The Russian so called Kursk counter-offensive, which was no more than a counter-attack has now been reduced to a fighting retreat
Sep 12 7 tweets 3 min read
After once again falsely stating that the US has provided more than Europe Vance gets into the meat and potatoes of the Trump/Vance policy for Ukraine and that is to "Find an appeasable settlement with Russia likely on the current frontline and create a demilitarized zone and make guaranteed assurances with Russia on "Ukrainian neutrality" and deny Ukraine entry to all "allied institutions” What does this actually mean?

Minsk agreement 3.

Which will inevitably fail and see resumption of hostilities making the entire endeavor by a hypothetical Trump Administration fruitless because it's not actually going to stop anything, it will just give Russia time to regroup re-equip and rearm its forces
Sep 11 6 tweets 2 min read
Lots of movement today in Kursk

Russians claim to have retaken Gordeevka,
Viktorovka,
Byakhovo,
Apanasovka,
Snagost,

Reported Ukrainian fighting in
Volfino,
Novy Put,
Khomutovka,
Kalinovka
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The reported attacks at Khomutovka are something keeping an eye on this is the intersection for the primary Russian GLOC to Rylsk and if Ukrainian forces reach
Dmitriyev then the final 2 rail lines to Lgov will be severed and cutting major road GLOC to Lgov
Sep 1 4 tweets 2 min read
No electricity in Moscow=No Electric Trains

What's that mean for a country that moves 86% of its freight on electrified rail. 😈

Russia next time probably shouldn't centralize your nationwide rail network with the hub centered on Moscow like wheel spokes with virtually no redundancies so if their is issues on one line it cascades out rapidly.Image Thank you every Russian leader since Lenin for pursuing a 100% electrified rail infrastructure project and thank you Tzarist Russia for making an overly centralized rail network centered completely from Moscow because you were so afraid of the Russian Far East, becoming a little too independent and you wanted to make them wholly reliant on the Kremlin to keep them in line.
Aug 31 4 tweets 3 min read
Zheleznogorsk and surrounding towns have a lot of high value targets

1. Direct Rail line from Lgov to Oryol
2. Paserkovo 110 kV rail traction station
3. Zheleznogorskaya Transformer station 330/220/110kV
4. Locomotive maintenance depot and general railway equipment servicing
5. Train Repair factory
6. Construction and industrial center

Any one of these targets says is stuff I have been screaming about for over a year. Any one of these targets Phenomenal, particularly if it is the traction station which shuts off electric rail service hindering Russian military supplies to Lgov and putting further strain on the Moscow Rail District. If it is combined with targeting the rail maintenance facility and locomotive depot that would be even better.
#Kursk Should the traction stations on the rail line from Oryol to Lgov be disrupted such as the traction stations being destroyed then this effectively makes the entire region unable to utilize electric trains which is difficult for Russia because the overwhelming majority of their active locomotive are electric which will put further strain on Regional Freight rail in the Moscow Rail District.

Red Lines are railroads that have been closed
Orange lines are moderately degraded
Yellow line at extreme risk of being attacked.

Another add-on should the rail line from Oryol to Kursk be disrupted again such as the traction station being destroyed then that means the only rail line that will be able to sustain electric Freight and passenger trains coming from Bryansk making this the only Rail line that electric trains will be able to utilize in the entire region for both civilian and military rail traffic.

If the rail maintenance and the locomotive depots are destroyed, this will put strain on not just electrical locomotives which won't really be useful anymore, But more importantly the diesel locomotives that will be the only option to run rail through Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts adding moderate logistical strain to Russian forces in Kharkiv under Task Group North and for the Russian Forces under Kursk Group.

This is shaping the battlefield to isolate Russian forces under Kursk Group and rain the effects will be felt fairly quickly, particularly for Russian forces operating West and South of Lgov.

With the rail network moderately degraded Russia will be forced to utilize trucks to fill the logistical void that will now have to travel from Bryansk and Oryol to Kursk, Lgov
and Belgorod extremely ineffective and more importantly time consuming with limited daily resupply and will moderately impact Russia's ability to move horses in a timely manner to respond to Ukrainian attacks in the region.Image
Aug 16 7 tweets 3 min read
Kursk Offensive D+11
Update August 16th 2024

Per @MalcontentmentT

Total area: 1,379 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
Change since last update: +116 sq km
🟨Ukraine control: 989 sq km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 390 sq km

My additions to the map
Red Lines: 🇷🇺 Defensive lines
Black Line and Icons: Railroads and rail bridges
Purple Icons: Road Bridges
Yellow Light Icon: Electrical substations and Rail Traction stations
2 Nuclear Icons: KNPP and Belgorod-22

#KurskImage
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Aug 15 7 tweets 3 min read
Based on reporting from Belarusian Railroad Workers Community and Moscow Commuter Trains Overhead this is a rail map of Russia that I'm comfortable with putting out at this time of impacted rail lines over the last few days.

Rail traffic from Belarus into Russia to Smolensk is closed.

Rail traffic from Kursk to Lgov is closed

Rail traffic from Kursk to Oryol is closed.

Rail Traffic from Belgorod to Kursk is impacted and likely will be announced closed.

Rail traffic from Smolensk to Oryol is likely impacted

Rail traffic from Lgov to Bryansk unknown status

Rail traffic from Lgov to Oryol is open.

Rail traffic from Belarus to Bryansk unknown status.

So Evacuation of Civilians just got way more difficult they're now going to have to bus everyone towards Lgov and train will pick them up and go to Oryol Right now it seems everything north of Oryol is fine.

🟥: Closed
🟨: Impacted
🟩: Open
⬜: Unknown Status

#RussianRail
#Kurskregion
#BelgorodRegion
#Trains
#UkraineWar
#Russia

@Prune602Image
Aug 14 8 tweets 4 min read
BREAKING: Russian Railroads are officially collapsing in real time from the Belarus Railroad Workers Community.

Telegram has sent from the central office of Russian Railways (RZD) to the Belarusian Railways (BCh) about the need to stop sending freight trains from all stations of the Belarusian Railways to stations of the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway (MRZhD RR) effective immediately from 12.08.2024 no end date given.

It is noteworthy that the received telegram with notification of the impossibility of receiving trains from the Belarusian Railways in the specified direction is no longer limited in validity, but has the mark "until cancellation" . This circumstance terminates railway communication from Belarus to stations in the specified region of Russia for an unknown (unlimited) period.

It should be noted that such a decision was made by Russian Railways against the backdrop of military events (the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the establishment of their control on Russian territories) occurring in the Kursk region, as well as statements by the Russian authorities about the “successes” achieved.

In addition to the events described above, there is a large accumulation of "abandoned" trains * (code 12 - no locomotive) at stations in the Smolensk region of the Moscow Railway. This circumstance also affects the rhythm of sending freight trains from the Belarusian Railway in the direction of the Moscow Railway and leads to disruption of the schedule.

Yesterday, 13.08.2024, corresponding telephone calls with verbal requests to find ways not to send trains in the direction of the Smolensk region (via the interstate junction point (IGCP) Osinovka (BZhD) - Krasnoe (RZhD)) were received directly from the Moscow Railway traffic control apparatus to the management of the Belarusian Railway.

#trains
#Kursk
#Belgorod
#Bryansk
#RussiaIsCollapsing
#RussianRail
#Russia
#Belarus
#Ukraine
#UkraineWar For its part, Russian Railways currently explains the situation with the filling of stations in the Smolensk region with “abandoned” trains by the “lack of traction” (the required number of locomotives (mainline diesel locomotives and electric locomotives), as well as locomotive crews to carry out the removal of trains).

The tense situation with the availability of the required number of locomotives and locomotive crews on Russian Railways has been going on for quite a long time, and has been sensitive since 2023. The reason is poor quality repairs, lack of spare parts, and people's lack of interest in low-paid work. However, these facts are only an indirectly related issue .

Our sources report that the lack of traction in the situation described is caused by the Russian authorities conducting a large-scale operational transfer of troops in the direction of the Kursk region and the redeployment of a significant part of the Moscow Railway's fleet of freight locomotives to carry out military transportation from the central part of Russia .

At the same time, some sources report that the concentration of armed forces is being carried out from virtually all regions, even from fairly remote ones or those with complicated logistics .

Obviously, such movements cannot be accomplished without the use of the railway.

It is not yet clear what role the Belarusian Railways is currently assigned in this regard.

We continue to monitor the situation.

Side note:
An "abandoned" train is a conventional term that generally refers to a train that has been left without a locomotive on a station side track for more than 24 hours.
Aug 14 13 tweets 9 min read
Ukraine's Kursk 2024 operation has effectively degraded Russian near front GLOC

Russian Logistics:

The Russian counter-attack will have 2 main logistical depots to support the eventual counter attack being Kursk and Belgorod with RZD and ZHV bringing supplies in by rail. Should the Russians deem Kursk and Belgorod no longer safe then secondary hubs are Oryol, Voronezh, and Stary Oskol can be used.

Once supplies come in by rail they will be offloaded and sent to likely Russian staging points (red stars) at Rylsk, Lgov, Chermoshnoi, Selikhovy Dvory, Oboyan, and Rakitnoe by the MTO Brigades by truck. The most optimal routes for the MTO brigades to transport material from the rail yards to Russian troops within 45 miles are highlighted in green. Secondary routes for the MTO to take that will be able to bring a third less supplies a day are highlighted as thick yellow line. Third route option and least preferred that will be able to bring in 2/3 less supplies per day is highlighted in dark orange.

#Kurskregion
#KurskOperation
#KurskBattle
#Kurska
#Belgorod
#BelgorodRegion
#BelgorodBattle
#BelgorodOperation
#Russia
#UkraineWar
#UkraineImage The MTO Brigades are Russia's logistical support to bring supplies from rail hubs to the front ground forces. As highlighted in many papers over the years for a century and a half the Russian army is a railway army and in order to sustain deep operations, and offensive operations it relys of rail with last mile done by truck and is effectively limited to stay preferably within 45 mi of a rail line so that the MTO brigades can most effectively Ferry supplies to the front. Beyond that there is reduced capacity to move supplies. The glaring issue with the eventual counter attack in Kursk in is that they will be operating at around 80 miles or more from a rail line at the current Ukrainian FLOT which logistically speaking for Russia is not ideal in staging and conducting a counter offensive because their supply lines will be stretched thin.

The second problem that Russia is going to run into while organizing and the response to counter the Ukrainians is deciding where to pull MTO assets in Ukraine from and relocate to Kursk leaving units in Ukraine short on logistical resupply assets making the The daily replenishment needed to sustain combat operations more difficult than it already is for the Russians that have had issues with properly supplying units across the front from strategic rail heads.

A MTO Brigades is committed to supporting 1 Combined Arms Army (CAA). Russia has a total of 11 of these MTO Brigades.

Each MTO Brigade fields
2 truck battalions, each battalion comprising
408 transport vehicles composed of
-148 general freight vehicles
-260 specialized vehicles
-48 trailers.

Each Battalion can reportedly haul 1,870 tons of cargo (1190 tons of dry cargo, 680 tons of liquid).

MTO Brigade serves a CAA
MTO Battalion serves a Division
MTO Companies serves Regiments and Brigades
Aug 12 4 tweets 2 min read
Well it looks like we'll have to address some of David's false claims about trains because Sudzha is part of the Russian primary rail network. This station has been in operation the entire length of the war. There was one partisan attack on one of the bridges south of the town in May of 2022. They sent the Russian Railways and the zhv and had a brand new bridge installed within 48 hours to keep uninterrupted freight rail flowing down and this train station was only closed for the first time in this war last Friday.

We will have to go over how Russia has had almost complete freedom of movement for it. Conducting rail operations this entire War. The number of times locomotive have been attacked by Ukraine. I can count on one hand. The number of times Russian zhv has been attacked. I can count on one hand. The amount of times critical rail infrastructure has been attacked. I can count on two hands and this idea that Russia won't be using a train station like Sudzha which is literally operated the entire War because it's in range of Ukrainian musicians. Guess what Tsar train is 5 mi from the line of contact and trains go down at every single day unharassed not a single attack and the Surovikin line yeah Russia's main GLOC Maine is a single rail line that's in the range the entire length and the amount of times that's been attacked I can count on one hand. The new rail line from Mariupiol 2 attacks One of which was on the granite quarry and the other completely missed the rail bridge no follow-on.Image Perhaps go read up on the ZHV and the MTO brigades. Or really look at any of Russia's military logistical doctrine that really hasn't had drastic change since the Cold War in those exercises that they did right before invading, Ukraine and Belarus that was with the MTO brigades to try and iron out issues.
Aug 12 13 tweets 5 min read
Ukrainian Intelligence hit a gold mine on Russian Logistics in near real time!

The capture of Sudzha may not seem grand on a map but the capture of the railway station may allow Ukrainian Intelligence direct access into Russian Railway Computer Systems, Schedules, Train Consists, and internal Russian Railway Communications from Dispatch to Defect Detectors.

Sudzha station besides being part of the Lgov-Belgorod Line that I've highlighted previously is part of the Moscow Railway division, which must be causing panic in Russian High Command knowing that the enemy has real time capability to view your logistical movements.

#Train
#Trains
#Locomotive
#RussianRail
#Russia
#Kurskregion
#Kursk
#KurskOperation
#Belgorod
#Belgorodregion
#BelgorodOperationImage
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Nice part is you can't really shut this thing off. A lot of those defect detectors and the signal sensors are automated. The only way you're shutting it off is if you go out there and rip the whole system apart. Which they're not going to do because that's insanely expensive and creates insane risk and safety issues for both passenger and freight rail and would leave trains out on the track completely blind as to what's in front of them so you can't really shut it off
Aug 10 15 tweets 6 min read
The likely Ukrainian objective is at Belaya. Securing of Belaya will allow Ukraine to have complete control of the main and most likely southern approach to Sudzha by road and rail for Russian Forces. Securing Belaya will be able to act as a FOB and check any Russian advances in this direction. Immediately North of Belaya is local high ground that also will be able to turn the paths of approach from the south and east into well prepared kill zones. Belaya is also likely a Ukrainian decision point securing this town will give them the option to go two separate directions.

Option 1 follow the road East and go towards Oboyan.

Option 2 follow the road South and go towards Proletarskii/Rakitnoe

Either approach can directly threaten the city of Belgorod.

Taking the southern approach also gives the opportunity to potentially link up with Ukrainian forces IVO Grayvoron should this develop into third mutually supporting axis of offensive.

Red GPS icon is where Ukrainian forward elements were spotted.
Blue stars are likely decision points/objectives
Black line and black icons are the railroads
Red line is Russian defensive fortifications.

Yellow and orange shaded areas are Ukrainian occupied areas and likely minimal Ukrainian presence.

#Kurska
#Kursk
#KurskBattle
#Kurskregion
#Belgorod
#Belgorodregion
#Ukraine️
#RussiaImage UPDATE: Belaya is likely under Ukrainian control.

Ukrainian decision point has been reached and have taken option 1 driving towards Oboyan clashing with Russian forces just outside of the town. Should the Ukrainians reach Oboyan they will have access to the E105 Highway. Gaining access onto this highway will sever a major and critical Russian GLOC from Kursk to Belgorod.

Source Russian Telegram Channel Two Majors claims that the size of the Ukrainian new breakthrough is 'several dozens of km' further south from Sudzha They say that Oboyan, located 65 km from the border, can hear the noise of the battle..Image
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