Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Why aren't Russia's treaty partners helping it in the war against Ukraine, ask Russian warbloggers. They wonder what use the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) is if it can't even help Russia to conquer a neighbouring state. ⬇️

2/ The CSTO was established in 2002 as a military alliance of six post-Soviet states – Armenia (which is in the process of withdrawing), Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Its charter requires participants to abstain from the use or threat of force.

3/ Despite this, Russian warbloggers can't seem to understand why none of the CSTO states will provide military assistance against Ukraine. 'Direct Action Z' laments:

4/ "Rumour has it that we and Belarus have requested assistance from the CSTO in case those lads [in Ukraine] decide to make a move. There are three countries left we can turn to, namely:

– Kazakhstan
– Kyrgyzstan
– Tajikistan

5/ Armenia is out of the picture, partly because of our passive stance on Karabakh, and Batka [Lukashenko] even went so far as to congratulate Aliyev on his victory – which didn’t exactly sit well with the CSTO. That’s one of the reasons why people in Armenia voted for Soros.

6/ "Kazakhstan is in a very awkward position; after all, we helped Tokayev hold on to power in January 2022. They’re very reluctant to help Russia, but a debt is a debt.

7/ "Kyrgyzstan is also trying to back out. Reports suggest that officials from the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry intend to wait for a UN condemnation of any Ukrainian aggression before providing assistance – that’s the most ridiculous excuse.

8/ "Meanwhile, a very cordial meeting between the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Tajikistan took place in Dushanbe the other day.

In short, they’re not exactly the best allies. They love receiving handouts from Russia, but when trouble strikes, they turn their backs.

9/ "Of course, there’s no point in acting rashly; you have to make do with what you’ve got – you won’t intimidate your CSTO partners with ultimatums here. And each one requires an individual approach, given their specific circumstances.

10/ "But I’d have a word with [President] Rahmon – presumably every region of Russia is chipping in to ensure his cult of personality flourishes in Tajikistan, yet he’s forging ties with Ukraine. What a joke.

11/ "And let’s not forget that Russia has three allies: the army, the navy and North Korea. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to admit the Koreans to the CSTO. Now there are decent people."

12/ Recent Ukrainian threats to take military action against signal towers in Belarus have raised the question of whether other CSTO states might be willing to step up to defend Belarus. The answer appears to be no, according to 'Nezygar', which reports:

13/ "Several military experts believe that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will not send military contingents to defend Belarus, and that even raising the issue could lead to the collapse of the organization.

14/ "Our forecast is that Belarus will not initiate the issue of military assistance."

'Children of Arbat' also complains:

"Russia has one ally—North Korea—and no effective military alliance, as Lukashenko has once again confirmed."

15/ "Moscow Region Governor Vorobyov came to Belarus with Zinovieva to discuss investments, but fell into a trap in which Lukashenko publicly reprimanded Ambassador Boris Gryzlov for "drawing Belarus into war."

16/ "The conclusion is simple: the topic of war between Russia and Ukraine is extremely toxic for everyone; most countries profit from it, while only Russians and Ukrainians suffer losses.

17/ "There will be no second front, nor will there be a military victory for either side in the conflict."

18/ Specifically, Lukashenko said in his usual combative style:

– "Don't push us to think that Boris Vyacheslavovich [Gryzlov, the Russian Ambassador to Belarus] is orchestrating a process to draw us into war."

19/ – "The Russian president and I have discussed this issue a thousand times: how can we fight against the Ukrainians here, on this side, if the territorial troops are mainly on that side?"

20/ – "Are we going to shoot these machine operators, milkmaids, and blue-collar workers who don't want to fight the Belarusians? We don't want to fight the Ukrainians either."

21/ Given this attitude, asks 'Nezygar', what kind of ally is Belarus and what is the point of the CSTO?

"Moscow is increasingly asking: why do we need Belarus as an ally if, during a war, it's "like a goat's milk."

22/ "What are Belarus and the CSTO if they are so openly unwilling to fulfill their obligations?

Why is there so much talk on Russian TV about NATO's weakness, yet no honest conclusion: Russia doesn't have a combat-ready military alliance, just as it doesn't have any allies.

23/ "Marginal friendship has led to the collapse of all Russian policy in the post-Soviet space. Money and corruption may provide a veneer of loyalty, but they are generally meaningless for Russia." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/adirect/30625
🔹 t.me/arbat/2328
🔹 t.me/russicaRU/68878
🔹 t.me/russicaRU/68897