Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.
In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/
Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"
That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/
Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.
Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/
Hodges: A massive blow for Putin — people streaming out of Crimea, military getting out. At some point Ukrainians just take it. Not an amphibious landing — walk in because Russian forces will have left.
Russia's war economy is fragile. Artificially sustained. It will break. 4X
Source:
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