The Hindenburg fired on all 4 baskets.
SPX still +0.47% today.
Full AION read below.
1/ Macro
Liquidity regime: UNSUPPORTIVE.
Weekly trend not providing fuel.
Weekly delta: +0.104. Daily status: increasing.
Structure says HEDGE. Price said otherwise today.
2/ Risk
20-day crash probability: 12.6%. Risk scale: Defensive.
Oversold reading: 69.5, Normal Range.
Market Stress: 32.2, Stable.
Not a panic reading. But the buffer is thin.
3/ Direction
3-day ML probability: 87%. 20-day: 88%. 10-day: 31%.
7 of 9 models bullish.
Short term and long term aligned. 10-day is the outlier.
AION reads near-term upward lean.
4/ Stat Models
3 of 5 bull.
Price Trend: Aggressive Risk-On, 90.2% prob up.
Breadth: Balanced/Normal, 87.9% prob up.
Volatility Envelope: Defensive, 39.5% prob up.
One model de-risking while the others lean up.
5/ Leaders
Top RS today: DAVE $400.8, LMND $70.51, HOOD $112.0, PENG $78.35, RBLX $55.35.
High beta fintech and growth leading.
These are the names the market is choosing to hold into the close.
6/ Laggards
Bottom RS today: EOSE $4.40, HTZ $2.05, NVTS $13.47, ASTI $3.98, AEHR $72.60.
Energy, auto rental, semis getting sold.
Rotation is clear: risk-on in growth, risk-off in speculative and value.
7/ Regime
Cross-asset: 100% Risk-On. All 3 ratios above their MAs.
NDX vs Gold: +9.64% premium. NDX vs Commodities: +7.99%.
Hindenburg Omen CONFIRMED on NYSE, SPX, NDX and High Beta.
Internal breadth warning active while macro says risk-on.
8/ Long
DAVE. Regime: PINNED. Spot $403.8. Dominant pin $400.0.
Ceiling at $450.0. Gamma flip at $317.8.
Structure magnetized near $400. Dealer positioning is long gamma above flip level.
Hold above $400: structure favors grind toward $450.
9/ Short
NVTS. Regime: VOLATILE. Spot $13.51. Cascade at $13.00.
Below $13.00, dealer hedging accelerates the move.
Short gamma environment. One weak close and the tape opens to downside.
Watch the $13 level.
That's the full AION read for July 10, 2026.
Cross-asset macro is all systems risk-on. Internal breadth says watch your footing.
The 10-day ML at 31% vs 3-day and 20-day both above 87% is the split to watch.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX
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